191
FOPZ12 KNHC 022101
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)  19(31)   2(33)   X(33)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)

LORETO         34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   8(18)   1(19)   X(19)

BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)

GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)

20N 110W       34 64   1(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
20N 110W       50 30   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
20N 110W       64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

25N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  29(35)   9(44)   X(44)   X(44)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)
25N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER GALLINA/PAPIN