473
WTPZ41 KNHC 302041
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

Flossie`s satellite presentation has continued to improve throughout
the day, with convective cold cloud tops near -80C over the
low-level center, and well-defined curve banding features. An
earlier scatterometer pass around 1629 UTC showed a peak wind of 47
kt, and helped to refine the current tropical-storm-force wind
radii. Latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
range from 45 to 55 kt, including a T/3.5 from TAFB. Given the
satellite trends, the intensity is set to 55 kt closes to UW-CIMSS
ADT and the TAFB Dvorak estimates.

The storm is within a favorable environment to continue
strengthening, current SSTs are around 29-30C, with low vertical
wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of
the guidance envelope and now has a peak intensity of 90 kt, closest
to the regional hurricane HAFS models. In about 48 h, environmental
conditions become increasingly more hostile, with drier air and
cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady
weakening trend. By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone as the system will struggle to produce
convection within the harsh environment.

The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 305/10 kt.
A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the
forecast period steered by a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast
was nudged slightly to the left and lies closest to the HCCA
corrected consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacn, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly
in steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, later today
through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 16.2N 103.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly