557
WTPZ41 KNHC 031434
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025

Flossie is now a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no
associated convection as it moves over colder sea surface
temperatures to the southwest of Baja California Sur.  The initial
intensity is decreased to a somewhat uncertain 40 kt in agreement
with the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates.  Flossie should continue to steadily weaken, with the
cyclone expected to become a post-tropical low later today and a
remnant low tonight. The system should dissipate completely by 60 h.

The initial motion is 300/9. A generally northwestward to
west-northwestward should continue to the next 36 h or so, followed
by a gradual bend more toward the west-northwest.  The new track
forecast is close to the previous forecast and the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 20.6N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven