670
AXPZ20 KNHC 081557
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: A very tight pressure gradient
is across northwest Mexico between deep high pressure over both
the central United States and the Great Basin, 1009 mb low
pressure and elongated troughing in the northern Gulf of
California near 30N113W, and troughing offshore southern
California. This pattern is supporting strong to gale-force
northerly winds in the northern Gulf of California where seas are
in the process of building to an impressive 8 to 12 ft. The
pressure gradient is forecast to slacken later today, and winds
should diminish below gale-force by early this evening. Seas
should subside to less than 8 ft overnight tonight.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient is
across the Tehuantepec region with deep ridging across eastern
Mexico extending from a 1038 mb high pressure center near the
central Oklahoma/Texas border southward, and troughing in the SW
Gulf of Mexico north of the Chivela Pass. This pattern is
supporting northerly minimal gale-force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas currently peaking at 14 to 16 ft. The
pressure gradient is forecast to gradually loosen into Thu, and
winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force by late Thu
morning if not sooner. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
linger into Thu evening before diminishing, with remnant seas of
around 8 ft extending south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early
Fri before subsiding. Looking ahead, another gap wind even is
forecast this weekend as another cold front moves by just north
of the area in the Gulf of Mexico with ridging surging in behind
it. Fresh to strong northerly winds will return late Fri
night/early Sat, quickly reaching minimal gale-force around
sunrise Sat, then diminishing by late Sun night. Yet another
gale-force gap wind event is possible early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
details on both Gale Warnings.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to
05N103W. The ITCZ extends from 05N103W to 07N122W to 03N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N
between 77W and 90W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 10N between 98W and 110W, and from 05N to 15N
between 110W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the northern Gulf of California and
another Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Other than the gale-force northerly winds in the northern Gulf of
California, moderate to fresh SW-W winds are in the central and
southern Gulf of California, rounding Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to
fresh W-NW winds are west of Baja California around the 1009 mb
low pressure in the northern Gulf of California, with gale-force
winds southwest of the California Channel Islands to just north
of 30N. Seas are 7 to 12 ft in NW swell west of Baja California,
highest west of Punta Eugenia. A weak pressure pattern is east
of 110W and west of the Tehuantepec region, with gentle to
moderate variable winds there, along with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, aside for the two Gale Warnings discussed
above, mainly moderate to fresh NW-N winds will prevail in the
Gulf of California, with locally strong surges at times. Moderate
to fresh winds will push across the offshore waters of Baja
California around the elongated low pressure troughing, locally
strong at times from Punta Eugenia northward through Fri night.
Winds may finally improve offshore Baja California for the start
of the weekend. NW winds will surge to moderate to fresh, locally
strong at times, from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore SW and
southern Mexico tonight through Fri night, as the low pressure
troughing dives southeastward along western Mexico. Meanwhile, NW
swell will spread across the offshore waters of Baja California
through the next couple of days, gradually subsiding by the end
of the week. Another swell event will reach the offshore waters
of Baja California Norte this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A locally tight pressure gradient is over the Papagayo region
between high pressure ridging over interior northern Central
America and the monsoon trough over southern Costa Rica,
supporting fresh to strong NE gap winds offshore to near 08N90W.
Seas peaked at 7 to 10 ft early this morning, but have since
subsided to 7 ft or less. Light to gentle variable winds and 2
to 4 ft seas are found offshore Costa Rica south and east of
Punta Guiones, and offshore western Panama west of the Azuero
Peninsula. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds are found across the
remainder of the waters north of 03N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft,
except 6 to 8 ft well offshore western Guatemala due to an
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. South of
03N, moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. Very
active and deep convection is offshore Colombia and just south of
the Panama Canal, to offshore western Panama as described above.

For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will continue
in the Papagayo region through early Fri afternoon as a locally
tight pressure gradient continues, diminishing to moderate to
fresh Fri evening through Sun, then increasing to fresh to strong
again Sun night into early next week. Seas will build to around 8
ft during the strongest winds. In the Gulf of Panama, N winds
will freshen up at night into the morning hours over the next few
days. Elsewhere, winds will remain moderate or weaker across the
Central American and equatorial Pacific waters. Northerly swell
generated from the current Tehuantepec gap wind event will
continue to impact the far western waters of Guatemala through
early Fri, reaching to around 10 ft at times. Little change in
seas is forecast across the remainder of the waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered well north of the area west
of Cape Mendocino, California near 39N131W, with a ridge
extending into the waters through 30N135W, then southeastward to
near 15N106W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found across
the waters north of 08N and west of 118W, where seas are 7 to 12
ft in NW swell, highest over the NE portion. Winds are moderate
or weaker along with 4 to 7 ft seas across the remainder of the
open waters, including south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.
Active convection is over mainly the central waters as described
above.

For the forecast, the active convection is expected to continue
across the central tropical Pacific through the week due to a
vigorous upper level trough moving through the region. The deep
trough will also result in pulsing plumes of strong N-NE winds
and seas to 12 ft in the NE waters into this evening. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds will persist in the trades region
through the upcoming weekend, briefly increasing to fresh to
strong over western portions Thu night due a tightening gradient.
Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the next
several days. Meanwhile, NW swells will continue to rotate
through the waters mainly north of 06N and west of 108W through
the next several days with seas of 6 ft to around 11 ft, up to 12
ft along 140W and north of 18N Thu night and Fri. Little change
in seas is forecast elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky