866
AXPZ20 KNHC 061503
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Apr 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will begin to
surge southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of
Mexico later today in the wake of a strong late-season Gulf of
Mexico cold front. The resultant tight gradient is expected to
lead to minimal gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec starting early on Mon, increasing to strong gale-
force by early Mon evening. Seas are expected to build to a peak
of around 12 ft Mon afternoon as the leading edge of 8 ft and
greater seas reaches to near 14N95W. The gale conditions are
expected to continue through Wed morning. Please refer to the
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near the border of Panama and
Colombia at 07N78W to 04N86W. The ITCZ segment extends from
06N107W to 06N117W where a surface trough interrupts from
07N119W to 07N120W. A southern ITCZ extends from 03S95W to
00.5S107W to beyond 03S140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 200 nm of either side of both ITCZ`s.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning.

Strong high pressure extends a ridge across the offshore waters
of Mexico. Meanwhile, a trough extends across the Gulf of
California. Fresh NW winds prevail over the central and southern
Gulf of California, as well as just offshore and SW of Cabo San
Lucas. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are elsewhere from
offshore SW Mexico to offshore Baja California where seas are 4
to 6 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere
offshore southern Mexico and in the northern Gulf of California.
Seas are 3 ft or less in the northern Gulf of California, 3 to 5
ft in the central Gulf, and 4 to 7 ft in the southern Gulf. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft offshore southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
through the Baja California waters and offshore of southwestern
Mexico into the early part of the week. Pulsing fresh to strong
NW winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of
California through Mon as the pressure gradient strengthens
between ridging to the west and troughing over western Mexico.
Strong N winds will develop tonight in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
before quickly strengthening to gale-force early Mon along with
rough seas, continuing through Wed morning. Elsewhere, long-
period NW swell will support rough seas across the Baja
California waters through the early part of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Low pressure over northwestern Colombia and local high pressure
over Nicaragua is currently allowing for fresh to strong NE to E
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Moderate N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Over the
remainder of the waters, light to gentle variable winds and 3 to
5 ft seas prevail, except 2 to 4 ft offshore Colombia and eastern
Panama.

For the forecast, NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will
pulse to fresh to strong speeds through today as low pressure
prevails over northwestern Colombia, then will pulse again
nightly starting Tue night. Elsewhere, mixed SW and NW swell will
maintain moderate seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
into next week, with a new set of rough SW swell possibly
reaching SW of the Galapagos in the middle of the week.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are expected across the
remainder of the waters into next week, along with slight to
moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A cold front has entered the far NW corner of the basin,
extending from 30N131W to 22N140W. A long period NW swell is in
the wake of the front, with rough to very rough seas NW i the
area. Elsewhere, broad surface ridging covers much of the
eastern Pacific waters, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
winds north of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed
NE and NW swell are over this part of the area. Otherwise,
mainly gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S are
noted over the waters south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, rough seas associated with the weak cold
front that will be moving through the northern waters are
forecast to progress southeastward through tonight, with rough
seas expected north of 15N and west of 125W by Mon afternoon.
Rough seas to 12 ft will be possible north of 20N and west of
130W later today through Mon. Farther south, moderate to fresh
trade winds will prevail into the early part of the week north
of the ITCZ to 25N. These winds will help to maintain rough seas
in this region. Mon through the middle of the week, rough seas
in mixed NW and E to NE swell will dominate much of the open
waters. Long-period southern hemisphere swell will promote rough
seas south of 05N Tue through the middle of the week.

$$
ERA