721
AXPZ20 KNHC 022127
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Flossie is centered near 19.5N 109.8W at 2100 UTC, and
is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt
with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 974
mb. Seas in excess of 12 ft reach as far as 150 nm in the
northern semicircle and 90 nm southern semicircle from the
center of Flossie, with maximum wave heights to 30 ft. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm NE and 150 nm
SW of the center of Flossie. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 21N to 23N between Las Tres Marias and 110W.
Flossie has begun to weaken today is now a category 2 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Flossie is expected
to move NW and gradually weaken through tonight, then weaken
quickly and lose its tropical characteristics Thu through Fri.
Large swell generated by Flossie will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
through Thu, and spread inside the Gulf of California through
midday Thu. These swells are likely to cause large and dangerous
surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave has moved across Central
America and is now entering southeastern Mexico along 92W
extending southward into the eastern tropical Pacific to 03N, and
is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous
moderate to strong convection is about the wave from 06N to 12.5N
between 87W and 97W. Recent satellite scatterometer wind data
showed strong winds to gale-force associated with thunderstorms
occurring from 08N to 11N between 91W and 93.5W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N73.5W to 10N86W to 07N98W to
13N105W, then continues south of Hurricane Flossie from 14N109W
to 08N128W. The ITCZ begins near 08N128W and continues beyond
07.5N140W. Aside from the convection related to Hurricane
Flossie, scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection is observed from 06N to 11.5N east of 91W, from 03.5N
to 12.5N between 91W and 104W, and from 04N to 16.5N between 104W
and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Hurricane Flossie.

Elsewhere, a weak ridge extends across the area waters north of
15N and west of 113W, centered on 1026 mb high pressure near
36N135W. This pattern is maintaining moderate NW winds off Baja
California, where combined seas are 4 to 5 ft north of Punta
Eugenia, and 6 to 9 ft in SE swell from Flossie between Punta
Eugenia and offshore of Cabo San Lucas. Fresh to locally strong
SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted across the Gulf of
California, with strongest winds across the northern Gulf. Seas
of 8 to 12 ft and much higher are found between Cabo San Lucas,
Las Tres Marias and the Revillagigedo Islands as Flossie passes
through that area. Seas will build modestly across the entrance
and southern portions of the Gulf overnight. Farther south,
winds have begun to diminish across the waters within 75 nm of
the coasts between Jalisco and Michoacan, where recent satellite
scatterometer winds showed peak winds near 25 kt or less across
these near shore waters. Elsewhere to the east, conditions
continue to improve, with mainly light to gentle breezes from
Oaxaca to Tehuantepec, except for strong gusty winds near
thunderstorms. Combined seas are 6 to 7 ft primarily in mixed S
and W swell.

For the forecast, Flossie is expected to continue moving NW and
gradually weaken through tonight, reaching near 20.1N 110.8W
around midnight, near 21.1N 112.3W midday Thu as a tropical
storm, then become a 40 kt post-tropical low near 22.1N 113.8W
around midnight Thu, then reach near 23.1N 115.4W Fri afternoon
as a remnant low. Elsewhere, large swell generated from Flossie
will impact the waters and coasts from Colima and Jalisco to the
central Gulf of California and Baja Sur to Punta Eugenia through
late Thu. Expect fresh to strong SE winds through the Gulf of
California through Thu morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong E
to SE winds and rough seas are possible off Oaxaca and Guerrero
Thu night through Sat as an area of low pressure moves to the
W-NW and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This area of
low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-
northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this
system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next
48 hours, but a medium chance through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A strong tropical wave moving across Central America and into far
southeastern Mexico, and a tight pressure gradient over the SW
Caribbean, support fresh to strong NE winds across the Papagayo
region and downwind to 93W, with associated seas 6 to 9 ft.
Clusters of strong thunderstorms are exiting this area to the
west this afternoon. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are
elsewhere in the Central America offshore waters from Costa Rica
to Colombia, with moderate seas 5 to 7 ft in S swell. Between
Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate
from the S with 6 to 8 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
pulse across the Papagayo region through Thu. Low pressure is
expected to develop downwind of Papagayo and south of Tehuantepec
by Thu night, producing fresh to locally strong winds offshore
of El Salvador and Guatemala through Fri morning. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are
expected. Moderate to large cross equatorial S to SW swell will
affect the waters near the Galapagos Islands into Thu. Moderate
or weaker winds are forecast across the entire region over the
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remainder of the eastern Pacific region is under the influence
of a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 36N135W. The
associated ridge dominates the waters north of 15N and west of
113W, producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds with seas in
the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed swell west of 120W. South of the
monsoon trough to 05N and between 105W and 120W, fresh to strong
SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in S to SW swell prevail.
Southerly swell of 6 to 8 ft dominates seas elsewhere across the
equatorial zone.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist to the NW of the
area through the remainder of the week, with little change in
wind strength W of 120W. The dominant marine feature will be the
large southerly swell continuing south of 10N west of 90W
through late Thu, followed by another pulse of moderate SW swell
over the weekend. Fresh to strong SW winds will remain active for
the next several days from 10N to 15N between 105W to 120W,
generating waves that will mix with the longer period SW swell in
that area.

$$
Stripling