296
AXPZ20 KNHC 162118
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 11N73W to 10N86W to 07N94W to
10N104W to 08N115W. The ITCZ continues from 08N115W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 05N E of
80W to the coast of Colombia, including the entrance to the Gulf
of Panama, from 02N to 06N between 80W and 94W, and from 05N to
10N between 94W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This
system supports gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja California
peninsula, with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds are also
noted in the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere across the
Mexican offshore waters, including the remainder of the Gulf of
California, light and variable winds prevail. Moderate seas are
noted elsewhere except for slight seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through the
upcoming weekend, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds
and moderate to rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A low pres
is forecast to develop over the northern Gulf of California by
tonight producing fresh to strong S to SW winds through Sat
night. Rough seas generated by fresh to strong northerly winds
offshore California will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun
night into Mon. Building seas to around 10 ft are expected. This
swell event will continue to propagate southward, mainly across
the waters N of 25N between 118W and 130W by Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of gentle
to moderate east winds across the Papagayo region and the coast
of Nicaragua and downwind to about 88W. Light to gentle winds
are noted elsewhere N of the monsoon trough while gentle to
moderate S winds are seen south of the it. Winds and seas are
higher near thunderstorms along the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, abundant moisture drawn in by a very moist and
unstable southerly wind flow is expected to persist across the
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through the
upcoming weekend, supporting the development of showers and
thunderstorms over this area. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across the region through Sun, then diminish on Mon.
Slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure of 1032 mb is located NW of area near 32N144W. Its
associated ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and west
of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh winds N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Rough seas are within
these winds. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere in a mix of swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and west of 125W
through early next week. The NW swell will combine with wind
waves to keep and area of rough seas over the west-central
waters this upcoming weekend, particularly from 10N to 20N west
of 130W. A new swell event will reach the N waters Sun night
into Mon, building seas to around 10 ft N of 25N between 118W
and 130W by Mon night.

$$
GR