408
AXPZ20 KNHC 110308
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 20.2N 107.7W at 11/0300
UTC, moving northwest at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 15 ft, mainly N and E of the
center. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm W of
the center and 60 nm E of the center. Raymond is forecast to
maintain its present motion through early Sat, followed by a
northward turn Sat evening into Sun. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is expected to move parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight and then approach
southern Baja California Sur over the weekend. Rainfall totals
of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8 or more inches are
expected across Sonora. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Across coastal
portions of Nayarit, Sinaloa, and the central to southern
portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the
potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the
Southwest U.S. Sun into early next week. Swells generated by the
storm are expected to spread northward along the coast of
Mexico tonight and reach southern Baja California Sur Sat.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Raymond NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Panama near 09N92W
to 15N104W to 10N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 12N, E of 102W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Raymond.

Some strong NW winds and rough seas are still noted offshore Cabo
San Lazaro, where the remnants of Priscilla are dissipating.
Elsewhere offshore Baja California, fresh NW winds and moderate
seas prevail. Strong gap winds have developed this evening in the
Gulf of Tehunatepec. Moderate seas in mixed swell exist
throughout most offshore waters, with winds outside of the
aforementioned areas moderate or weaker. In the Gulf of
California, winds are light to gentle and seas are slight.

For the forecast, aside from Tropical Storm Raymond and the
remnants of Priscilla, strong gap winds will pulse this weekend
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Deep monsoonal moisture is leading to convection offshore Costa
Rica and Panama, where moderate to fresh SW winds are present.
These winds extend across the remainder of waters S of the
monsoon trough. To the north, mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas
are mainly 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, generally moderate southwest winds and seas
will remain south of the monsoon trough into early next week. A
very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will be favorable
for showers and thunderstorms to develop over the regional
waters into next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging associated with weak high pressure centered near 26N144W
is leading to a broad area of moderate or weaker NE flow N of the
monsoon trough, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. To the south of the
monsoon trough, moderate or weaker southerly flow dominates, with
similar seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure is expected to build across the
waters north of the monsoon trough into early next week. Northerly
swell is forecast to bring rough seas N of 25N and E of 125W by
the end of the weekend into early next week. The swell will be
preceded by a weakening cold front. The front will be followed by
mostly fresh northerly winds.

$$
Konarik