403
AXPZ20 KNHC 060212
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 1010 mb low pres near
15N105W to another 1010 mb low pres near 15N135W to beyond
12N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found N of 12N
between 100W and 112W. Another area of scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N to 17W and W of 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1020 mb located near 27N128W extends a ridge
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting
light to gentle NW winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell prevail.
In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds are noted
per latest satellite derived wind data. Seas are 1 to 2 ft.
Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle
winds are observed with seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California producing
gentle to moderate NW winds and slight to moderate seas into
early next week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure
located just off the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle portions of next week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern
Mexico during the next few days. This system has a low change of
tropical cyclone development through 48 hours, and a medium
chance through 7 days. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the Tehuantepec region by the middle
of next week as a northerly flow establishes over the western
Gulf of Mexico in the wake of tropical cyclone Milton E of the
area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted N of 05N while gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail between the Equator and 5N. Seas
are in general 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except 1 to 3 ft in the
Gulf of Panama, and in the coastal waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, gentle SW to W winds are forecast across the
offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica while
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail elsewhere through
the middle of next week. Moderate seas, in long period SW swell,
will prevail across the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1020 mb high pressure situated near 27N128W dominates the
northern forecast waters. A 1010 mb low pressure is centered
along the monsoon trough near 14N135W. Fresh wind are occurring
within about 210 nm in the NE quadrant of the low center with
seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE to S
winds S of the monsoon trough between 120W and 130W, and from the
Equator to 05N between 130W and 140W based on recent
scatterometer data.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
north waters into early next week while strengthening some. The
pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the low pressure
along the monsoon will support an area of fresh winds in the NE
quadrant of the low center through at least Mon. The low is
forecast to open-up into a trough Mon night into Tue just W of
area.

$$
ERA