759
AXPZ20 KNHC 120951
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Mar 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: A cold front associated to weakening
low pressure of 1010 mb that is north of the area near 32N119W
extends from NW Mexico southwestward to 29N111W to 23N116W, then
transitions to a trough to near 17N110W. Seas peaking to 13 ft
in northwest to north swell are present west of Baja California
Norte. These seas will subside to below 12 ft this morning.
Rough seas will propagate southeastward through the waters
offshore of Baja California Sur through this evening. Looking
ahead, another significant swell event related to an upcoming
cold front will bring 12 to 15 ft seas to the waters north of
about 24N and west of 120W through Thu night, shifting to east
of 125W on Fri before lowering to below 12 ft Fri night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure that is
located in northwest Colombia to 08N78W to 08N85W to 01N89W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N100W to 01N120W to 01N130W
to below the Equator at 130W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 02S to 01N between 98W and 103W, also within 30 nm
north of the ITCZ between 92W and 93W and within 30 nm north
of the ITCZ between 113W and 119W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features Section for details on the Significant
Swell event impacting the waters offshore of Baja California.

Weakening low pressure of 1010 mb is centered just north of the
area near 31N119W. Its associated cold front extends into the
discussion area from NW Mexico to 29N111W to 23N116W, then
transitions to a trough to near 17N110W. Fresh to strong winds
are within 300 nm of the low in the S semicircle, where seas are
in the range of 8 to 13 ft as mentioned above under Special
Features. To the southeast of the low pressure, fresh to strong
south to southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California
along with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, locally moderate NE winds
are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the Mexico offshore
waters, with seas of 4 to 6 ft over the open waters due to long-
period northwest swell, with the exception of the central and
southern Gulf of California where lower seas of 1 to 3 ft seas
are found.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong south to southwest winds
in the northern Gulf of California will diminish to fresh speeds
this afternoon as low pressure of 1010 near 32N118W drifts
eastward. Fresh to near gale south to southwest winds will
materialize in the northern Gulf of California tonight through
Thu night as next cold front approaches. Seas to 12 ft west of
Baja California Norte will subside below 12 ft this morning.
Rough seas will propagate southeastward through the waters
offshore of Baja California though this evening. The next cold
front is expected to approach Baja California on Thu, producing
fresh to strong west to northwest winds offshore of the peninsula
and through the Gulf of California Thu and Fri. Long-period
northwest swell will reestablish rough seas offshore of Baja Thu
through Sat night. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to locally strong
northwest to north winds are expected offshore of southwest
Mexico Thu night through Sat as the pressure gradient tightens
between the approaching cold front and high pressure over Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo region. Fresh north to northeast winds are in
the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
present elsewhere.

Latest satellite imagery shows isolated showers and thunderstorms
over the waters west of Ecuador to near 95W.

Hazy conditions are evident over the waters near Guatemala due
to the volcanic ash emissions of the past few days from the
Fuego Volcano in Guatemala.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to moderate to
fresh speeds this afternoon, then pulse to moderate to fresh
speeds tonight nto Thu. Fresh north to northeast winds in the
Gulf of Panama will become gentle to moderate north winds this
afternoon, and become fresh north winds tonight into Thu morning,
diminishing to light to gentle speeds Thu afternoon and pulse up
to moderate speeds Thu and Fri night. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across
the waters offshore of Central and South America through this
weekend. Hazy conditions due to previous volcanic ash from the
Fuego Volcano are over the waters near Guatemala.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Gentle to moderate northerly winds are north of 19N and west of
about 120W. Seas outside of the Significant Swell Event as described
above under Special Features are in the range of 8 to 10 ft due
long-period northwest to north swell generally over the waters
from 15N to 27N between 116W and 134W. Elsewhere, a weak
subtropical ridge is maintaining moderate trade winds, for the
most part, west of about 120W from 05N to 16W along with seas of
7 to 8 ft in a mix of northwest swell and local wind generated
seas. Gentle to moderate trade winds continue elsewhere along
with seas of 5 to 7 ft predominantly due to long-period
northwest to north swell.

For the forecast, the seas of 8 to 10 ft will gradually subside
today. A cold front is likely to bring fresh to strong northwest
winds and very rough seas to the northern waters through Fri.
Farther south, moderate to fresh trade winds will exist from 05N
to 20N west of about 115W through this weekend, with locally
strong wind and locally very rough seas conditions becoming
established west of 135W starting on Thu. Seas will build with
these winds, possibly up to around 10 ft.

$$
Aguirre