659
AXPZ20 KNHC 272134
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 02N82W to a 1010 mb low
centered near 06N89W to 04N96W. The ITCZ continues from 04N96W
to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring south of 09N and east of 90W, and from
05N to 09N between 105W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough has been analyzed over the Gulf of California southward
through coastal Jalisco to Oaxaca, and weak ridging extends over
the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. Recent scatterometer
satellite data shows moderate to fresh NW winds occurring
offshore of Baja California, and rough seas of 8 to 9 ft prevail
across these waters. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NW winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring offshore of southwestern Mexico,
while gentle winds and slight seas are noted through the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and rough
seas will occur offshore of Baja California today. Locally strong
NW winds are expected to develop north of Cabo San Lazaro this
evening as the pressure gradient strengthens between troughing
over the Gulf of California and a cold front moving southward
along the California coast. The cold front is slated to move into
the northern waters Fri morning, and widespread fresh to strong
NW winds will occur offshore of the peninsula in the wake of the
front into early Sat. A long-period NW swell associated with the
front will promote rough seas in this region through this
weekend, with seas in excess of 8 ft expanding southeastward to
offshore of southwestern Mexico on Sat. Peak seas of 12 to 13 ft
can be expected north of Cabo San Lazaro early Fri through Sat.
Seas will diminish from northwest to southeast early next week.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of
California and offshore of southern Mexico through this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft are occurring through
the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure persists over northwestern
Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N winds are noted
through the Gulf of Panama, with moderate S to SW winds farther
south offshore of Ecuador. Seas of 3 to 6 ft in a long-period S
hemisphere swell are noted across the regional waters.

For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri morning as low pressure
prevails over northwestern Colombia. Winds are expected to
become more confined to just offshore of Nicaragua this weekend,
pulsing to fresh to locally strong speeds. Elsewhere, fresh N
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Fri morning, with
occasional moderate winds occurring this weekend. Otherwise, a
new long-period S hemisphere swell is slated to move through the
waters offshore of Central and South America Fri into this
weekend, promoting seas of 4 to 7 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A cold front has been analyzed from 30N123W to 26N135W, and
continues as a trough to 24N139W. Recent scatterometer satellite
data shows moderate to locally fresh NW winds north of this
front. A long-period NW swell associated with this system is
supporting rough seas north of 22N and west of 124W, with peak
seas of 12 to 16 ft north of 26N between 126W and 140W. Farther
south, a residual NW swell is supporting rough seas of 8 to 10 ft
north of the equator to 16N, generally west of 115W. Ridging
extends over the remainder of the open waters, and moderate to
fresh NE winds are occurring along the periphery of the ridge,
from 05N to 20N west of 110W. Gentle to locally moderate winds
and seas of 5 to 8 ft in S swell are occurring south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, a long-period NW swell associated with a cold
front moving through the northern waters will expand rough seas
southeastward into this weekend. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft are
anticipated over much of the open waters north of the equator
and west of 110W. Peak seas of 12 to 16 ft will occur north of
23N between 120W and 140W through Sat morning. Seas are expected
to subside from northwest to southeast Sat night into early next
week. The aforementioned cold front will propagate southeastward
through Fri before dissipating, and moderate to locally fresh NW
winds are expected in the wake of the front. Elsewhere, fresh NE
winds generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will extend
as far south and west as 08N92W through Fri. Otherwise, a
strengthening pressure gradient between the ITCZ and high
pressure over the northern waters will support moderate to fresh
NE winds from 05N to 20N west of 110W through Sat before the
gradient relaxes early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front is
slated to pass just to the north of the waters on Sat, supporting
fresh to locally strong SW winds north of 28N Sat into Sun.

$$
ADAMS