457
AXPZ20 KNHC 241605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Aug 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP92): A broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next few days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the coast
of Mexico. This system is expected to move into less conducive
conditions to develop around the middle of this week. There is a
medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a high
chance within the next 7 days.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding EP92 at website www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W, from 05N northward
into southwestern Guatemala, moving toward the west around 10 kt.
Nearby convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 108W, from 06N to 19N,
moving toward the west around 10 kt. Please see the Special
Features section for information related to EP92.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 120W, from 07N to 18N,
moving toward the west around 10 kt. Nearby convection is
described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to a 1007 mb low
centered near 15N108W, EP92, to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is occurring from 11N to 18N between 108W
and 113W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 14N between 86W and 107W, from 09N to 16N
between 117W and 130W, and from 10N to 12N west of 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh SE to NE winds are occurring offshore
of Guerrero through Jalisco near EP92, centered near 15N108W, and
the northern extent of a tropical wave axis along 108W. Recent
altimeter satellite data show 6 to 8 ft seas are present in this
region. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends through the Gulf of
California, and gentle to moderate winds and 1 to 3 ft seas
prevail in the region, with local seas to 4 ft in the entrance of
the Gulf. Otherwise, ridging extends over the remainder of the
waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds. Altimeter data
depict 4 to 5 ft seas in NW swell offshore of Baja California,
and 4 to 7 ft seas in SW swell offshore of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is located a few
hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico, EP92.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next few days while it moves generally west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of
Mexico. This system is expected to move into less conducive
conditions to develop around the middle of this week. There is a
medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a high
chance within the next 7 days. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
SE winds are possible in the central and northern Gulf of
California tonight, with generally moderate SE winds expected
thereafter. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh N to NE gap winds
will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Mon, with pulsing
strong winds and locally rough seas expected Mon night through
late this week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as a
1011 mb low prevails in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E
winds extend through the waters offshore of El Salvador and
Guatemala. Elsewhere, south of the monsoon trough, moderate to
fresh S to SE winds prevail. A long-period SW swell is moving
through the South American waters, and recent altimeter satellite
data show 8 ft seas are occurring south of the equator, and seas
to 12 ft are noted south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a long-period, cross-equatorial swell will
propagate northward over the next several days, producing rough
seas over the Ecuador waters today, with rough seas reaching the
Central American waters Mon into Tue. Very rough seas over 12 ft
are likely south of the equator into early Mon. Seas will slowly
subside through midweek. Elsewhere, fresh E to NE gap winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon morning, with strong
winds and locally rough seas developing Mon afternoon and
continuing through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends through much of the eastern Pacific waters north
of the monsoon trough, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near
31.9N138.8W. Moderate N to NE winds are occurring along the
periphery of the high, with locally fresh NE winds noted west of
135W. Recent altimeter satellite data and buoy observations show
4 to 6 ft seas over much of this region, with seas to 7 ft near
the tropical wave along 120W, and near 15N140W. South of the
monsoon trough, 8 to 9 ft seas are occurring north of 05N, near
the previously mentioned tropical wave and EP92. Farther south, a
long-period SW swell is leading to 8 to 11 ft seas south of 05N.
Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, winds and seas are expected to increase over
the central waters early this week as a tropical depression
likely forms and moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, remaining well off the coast of Mexico. This system is
expected to move into less conducive conditions to develop around
the middle of this week. There is a medium chance of formation
within the next 48 hours and a high chance within the next 7
days. Elsewhere, a long-period, cross-equatorial swell will
propagate northward over the next several days, producing rough
seas south of 05N today before merging with a wide expanse of
rough seas generated near EP92 tonight. Very rough seas to 12 ft
will be possible south of the equator into early Mon. Seas
generated by this cross equatorial swell will slowly subside by
midweek. Looking ahead, a new SW swell will lead to rough seas
south of 10N late this week.

$$
ADAMS