994
AXPZ20 KNHC 100903
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jan 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N gap winds will
redevelop late tonight in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold
front moves through the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure
strengthens in the wake of the front. Winds will quickly
strengthen to gale force overnight and continue into Sat evening
before winds rapidly diminish overnight into Sun. Rough seas
will accompany the winds, with peak seas near 13 ft. Seas will
subside Sun morning. Looking ahead, a more prolonged gap wind
event is expected next week, with fresh to strong N winds
returning Mon morning, reaching gale-force Mon evening, then
continuing through the middle of next week. Very rough seas are
likely with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 07N120W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N120W to beyond 04N140W. Moderate to strong
convection is occurring from 05N to 08N between 78W and 81W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
07N to 15N between 95W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1031 mb high is centered north of the region near 34N135W with
ridging extending through the Baja California waters, while a
1020 mb low is centered near Point Conception, California near
34N120W, with a trough extending southeastward. Elsewhere, a
1005 mb low is centered over central Mexico near 21N100W, and
troughing extends northwestward to the northern Gulf of
California. The pressure gradient between these features is
leading to moderate to locally fresh N winds offshore of Baja
California and through the Gulf of California, with gentle to
moderate winds offshore of southwestern Mexico. Fresh to locally
strong NW winds are noted in the northern and central Gulf of
California. Locally rough seas prevail north of 17N, with slight
seas noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, away from redeveloping gale force winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to strong NW to NE winds will
occur offshore of Baja California and through the Gulf of
California through Sat, as troughing prevails over Baja and high
pressure builds over northern Mexico and over the eastern
Pacific. Locally fresh N winds will expand farther south to
offshore of southwestern Mexico this morning through early Sat.
Rough seas currently offshore of Baja will slowly subside into
Sat. A new long-period N swell associated with a cold front
moving through Southern California will push into the Baja
California Norte waters Sat into early next week, producing
rough to locally very rough seas. Slight to moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E to NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo as a
tight pressure gradient prevails between the monsoon trough and
high pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, locally
fresh N winds continue in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder
of the waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will occur in the
Gulf of Papagayo today as low pressure prevails in the south-
central Caribbean. Winds will diminish slightly and pulse to
fresh speeds each night this weekend before restrengthening Mon
night, with pulsing strong E winds continuing through at least
the middle of next week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to locally
fresh N winds are expected each night through this weekend in
the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the waters
into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1031 mb high is centered north of the region near 34N135W and
ridging extends through the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring along the
periphery of the ridge, with locally strong E winds noted from
15N to 22N west of 135W. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
gentle to moderate winds prevail. A long-period NW swell is
producing rough seas of 8 to 11 ft north of 05N and west of 115W,
with seas of 4 to 7 ft noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will become anchored north of
the region into early next week, supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds through this weekend north of the ITCZ. Periods of
locally strong winds will be possible today, mainly from 15N to
25N west of 130W. Rough seas currently impacting much of the
open waters will be reinforced by a new long-period NW swell for
areas north of 15N and west of 130W this morning, with rough
seas expanding farther south and east through this weekend. A
new long-period N swell associated with a cold front moving
through Southern California will push into the waters offshore
of Baja California Norte Sat into early next week, producing
rough to locally very rough seas north of 25N and east of 130W.
Meanwhile, active convection is expected to continue across the
central tropical Pacific through the remainder of the week due
to a vigorous upper-level trough moving through the region.

$$
ADAMS