239
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 01 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 15N99W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 11N107W to
08N112W to 10N120W and to 07N125W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N132W to
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 123W and 126W and between
131W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
south of the ITCZ between 114W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to
moderate northwest winds over most of the Mexico offshore
waters. Seas across these waters are 4 to 5 ft primarily in
northwest swell as seen in an overnight altimeter satellite pass
over those waters. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds
continue in the northern Gulf of California along with seas to 3
ft.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated to Tropical Storm
Chris just inland eastern Mexico are just inland the coast of
southern Mexico. This activity is reaching some of the coastal
areas of that part of Mexico.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue along and near the coast of southern Mexico today.
Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient over the area will generally
maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas over
the Mexican offshore waters through today. Moderate to fresh
winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect the Baja
California Norte offshore waters tonight and Tue. A surface
trough along the Baja Peninsula, and a tighter pressure gradient
will lead to moderate to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of
California Tue afternoon through Wed. A broad area of low
pressure is expected to form early this week a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form mid-
to late-week while it moves west-northwestward. This system has
a low chance of development in 48 hours and medium chance of
development in 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted across the offshore waters of
Central America, in addition to the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands
offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the entire region
due to long-period south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
most of the area through the week. Winds could become moderate to
locally fresh south of the monsoon trough over the Costa Rica
and Panama offshore waters Tue through Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure
of 1033 mb that is located well north of the area near 41N143W.
The ridge covers the subtropical waters west of 120W. North of
the ITCZ to 31N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh northeast
winds are present. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds
are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these
waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the
monsoon trough, except for moderate winds near a trough that
extends from 18N123W to 12N124W. Moderate to locally fresh east
to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4 to 7
ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W
south of the monsoon through early on Mon. Southerly swell with
seas to 8 ft will move through the waters south of 08N between
97W and 140W through most of the week. Additionally, fresh winds
will bring rough seas to the west of the Baja California waters
tonight. The northerly swell will shift westward through the
week, staying north of about 27N through Fri. Seas are forecast
to peak to about 10 ft Wed through Thu between 128W and 136W.

$$
Aguirre