974
AXPZ20 KNHC 280313
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Aug 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Juliette is centered near 24.6N 120.7W at 28/0300
UTC, moving north-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft, or 4.5 m. Scattered
moderate convection is being dispersed well off to the NNE of
the system into portions of Baja California Norte and southern
California. Currently scattered moderate convection is noted in
an elongated plume from 24N to 30N between 117W and 121W. Global
models predict that residual mid-to upper-tropospheric moisture
will be advected toward portions of northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern U.S., potentially increasing humidity conditions and
enhancing local monsoonal rainfall toward the end of the week.
Juliette is moving toward the north-northwest and a turn to the
north and a reduction in forward speed is expected over next 24
hours. Weakening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low late Thu. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the
latest Juliette NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across Central America analyzed near
84W from 05N northward to across portions of Costa Rica,
Nicaragua, and Honduras, moving west at around 10 kt. The
majority of convection is inland as well as in the NW Caribbean
Sea. Any other nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below.

A tropical wave is relocated along 110W from 05N to 18.5N. Refer
to the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below for details on current
nearby convection. Currently, associated winds are 20 kt or less
with seas of up to around 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next
few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at
around 15 kt across the central to western part of the eastern
Pacific basin. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours and a high chance through 7 days.
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from along northern Colombia to across
Panama to 08N83W to 09N100W to 16.5N114.5W, then resumes SW of
T.S. Juliette from 13N125W to beyond 10.5N140W. Aside from the
convection associated with Juliette, scattered moderate is noted
from 05N to 08N between 85.5W and 88W, and from 06N to 20N
between 94W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
related to T.S. Juliette. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
an area of disturbed weather just beyond the SW Mexico offshore
waters.

Aside from Juliette that is affecting the far outer Baja
California offshore waters, fresh to strong northerly gap winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec generated by high pressure building
into NE Mexico are causing rough seas. For the remainder of
offshore waters, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas
in southerly swell, with slight seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Juliette will move to 25.9N 121.0W
Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 26.9N 121.1W Thu
evening, 27.3N 121.2W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri evening.
Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will pulse through Thu evening, with rough seas also expected.
Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are forecast across the remainder
of the waters through the weekend and into early next week. An
area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the
early and middle portions of next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Regardless of development,
increasing winds and building seas may accompany this feature and
impact portions of the offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
Papagayo with moderate seas. These winds are funneling through
passes in Central America in response to a high pressure gradient
from between high pressure N of the Caribbean and lower pressure
with the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere
across the Central American offshore waters while between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to locally fresh SE to S
winds are observed. Seas are moderate in S to SE swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE gap winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Papagayo through this weekend, possibly increasing
to fresh to strong early next week. An offshore fresh to strong
surge of winds may occur late tonight into early Thu in the
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Mainly moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas will be
locally rough between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late
in the week and into the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
related to T.S. Juliette. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
an area of disturbed weather just beyond the SW Mexico offshore
waters.

Aside from Juliette, high pressure dominates the waters N of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ winds winds of moderate or weaker. Winds
are mainly gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ, except moderate to fresh E of 110W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in
mixed northerly and southerly swells N of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ, and 7 to 9 ft in southerly swells S of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ.

For the forecast, Juliette will move to 25.9N 121.0W Thu
morning, weaken to a remnant low near 26.9N 121.1W Thu evening,
27.3N 121.2W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri evening. Otherwise,
long-period, cross-equatorial swell will spread across the waters
S of 10N E of 120W through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Rough seas are expected with this swell event.

$$
Lewitsky