359
AXPZ20 KNHC 011604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec persist this morning across
the area N of 12.5N. Although this system does not yet appear to
have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two.
This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of days
before drifting northward towards the southern coastline of
Mexico. Interests there should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along
portions of the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central
America throughout this week. Heavy rainfall is also expected
over the forecast waters, where winds and seas will be locally
higher. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
development during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. Additional
information on marine impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (97E):
An area of low pressure has formed off the coast of southwestern
Mexico a few hundred miles south of Acapulco. Disorganized
showers and thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters
across this area. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form within a few days. This disturbance is forecast to
meander near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of
the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy
rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that
were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last
week. Interests there should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. Heavy rainfall is also expected over the forecast
waters, where winds and seas will be locally higher. This system
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next
48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 7 days.
Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information. Additional information on marine impacts can be
found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N73W to 11N78W to low pres
1007 mb near 14.5N95W to low pres 1008 mb near 14N99W to 10N123W
to low pres 1011 mb near 12N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between E of 91W,
and from 10N to 17N between 86W and 104W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N W of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for informations on an
area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E) with
a high chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48
hours, and an area of low pressure off the coast of SW Mexico
(97E) with a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in
the next 48 hours.

Fresh to strong W to SW winds continue along and south of the
monsoon trough to near 10N, over the waters of southern and
southwestern Mexico between 92W and 102W, associated with Invest
96E, and Invest 97E. Seas over these waters are in the 8-10 ft
range. Scattered strong showers and thunderstorms continue across
this area N of 12N this morning. Across the Baja California
waters, a weak pressure gradient prevails as broad 1011 mb low
pressure center is just N of the Revillagigedo Islands, and
drifting westward. The resultant pattern is producing light to
gentle northerly winds to the N of Cabo San Lazaro, and variable
winds south and southeastward to Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 4 to 6
ft in NW swell across these areas. Light to gentle winds, and
seas of 1-3 ft, are found over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue across the waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
westward to offshore of Guerrero. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for tropical development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two,
as 96E meanders offshore for the next couple of days, before
drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico.
The other area of low pressure, 97E, will also persist off the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development after that time, and a tropical depression is
expected to form by the end of the week. This disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico
for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-
northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend.
Regardless of development of both of these systems, areas of
heavy rainfall are expected over the forecast waters, where
winds and seas will be locally higher, and along the area coasts.
Elsewhere, gentle NW to N winds will persist across the waters
off Baja California throughout the week, with winds increasing to
moderate speeds each late afternoon and evening near the coast.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail
across the offshore waters of Central and South America this
morning, as the monsoon rough remains N of 10N. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms remain active across much of the area waters.

For the forecast, fresh westerly winds and rough seas are
expected offshore of Guatemala through mid week as low pressure
develops south of Tehuantepec and west of that area. Otherwise,
winds are expected to become more W to SW and diminish slightly
through Fri, while seas diminish very slightly.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to locally strong SW to W winds prevail just beyond the
offshore zones off the coast of southwestern Mexico to offshore
of Tehuantepec, generally from 09N to 14N between 92W and 104W.
Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in this area. Elsewhere, moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds are noted on the periphery of a 1027
mb high centered near 37N140W. Northerly swell is over the
northern waters N of 26N between 120W and 135W, with moderate to
locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, northerly swell over the northern waters will
be reinforced by new north to northeasterly swell through Wed
night. This will result in moderate to locally rough seas over
the waters north of 27N between 125W and 140W through Thu before
subsiding by the end of the week. The monsoon winds will become
well established E of 110W by mid week and act to disrupt the
typical trade wind pattern across the region S of 20N Wed through
the end of the week.

$$
Stripling