997
AXPZ20 KNHC 121535
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 96W from 07N to 16N drifting west at 5
kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 12N to 14N between 93W and 99W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 13N90W to 09N125W. The
ITCZ then continues from 09N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection from 12N to 15N between 93W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1004 mb low pressure, the remnants of Raymond, are over the
southern Gulf of California near 25N110W. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are active along the coast of southern Sonora and
northern Sinaloa. Strong S to SW winds cover much of the southern
Gulf of California associated with the low pressure. Limited
fetch across the basin is maintaining 4 to 6 ft seas. Off the
Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula, moderate to fresh NE winds
are active between the general low pressure over the Gulf of
California and 1035 mb high pressure centered well to the north
near 45N144W. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft is impacting the waters off
Guadalupe Island and off the northern coast of Baja California
Norte. Farther south, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the Gulf of America and lower pressure over the monsoon
trough is supporting fresh northerly gap winds and seas to 7 ft
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thunderstorms are active just
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, associated with a slow moving
tropical wave farther south in the deep tropics.

For the forecast, the remnants of Raymond will dissipate over the
southern Gulf of California and adjacent Baja California today.
Fresh to locally strong NW winds and rough seas will impact
offshore waters of Baja California Norte through tonight as high
pressure builds S toward the region. Low pressure over the SW
U.S. may bring some locally fresh to strong SW winds to the far
northern Gulf of California Mon. Strong northerly gap winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside today then redevelop
starting Mon night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is
expected to form off the coast of southern Mexico by the middle
of the week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for some development thereafter, as the system moves
slowly northward or northwestward near or just offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW winds prevail across most of the region, with seas of
5 to 7 ft in SW swell impacting the offshore waters from Costa
Rica northward. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas in
SW swell are noted elsewhere farther south. Scattered moderate
convection is most robust closest to the monsoon trough offshore
Costa Rica.

For the forecast, generally moderate southwest winds and seas
will remain south of the monsoon through the week. A very moist
and unstable atmospheric environment will be favorable for
showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop over the
regional waters. Looking ahead, low pressure may form south of
Guatemala by mid-week, and environmental conditions may be
conducive for some tropical development of this low as it move
slowly north or northwest late this week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with
moderate to fresh N winds across these waters as high pressure
builds southward. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this region, except for 8
to 10 ft N of 25N between 115W and 130W, where N swell is
propagating. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the
ITCZ along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate south to southwest
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the area early
this week. Winds north of the ITCZ will become gentle to
moderate northeast to east in direction, and mostly gentle in
speeds from north to northeast in direction north of the monsoon
trough. Seas may lower slightly early this week. A weakening
cold front is likely to brush the waters north of 25N Tue and
Wed.

$$
Christensen