697
AXPZ20 KNHC 222140
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jan 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:
Strong high pressure over NE Mexico is supporting gap winds to
gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as depicted by the
latest ASCAT pass. Seas will likely peak to around 19 ft this
afternoon, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending over 500 nm S
and SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This gale force winds will
likely persist through Sat night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
and rough seas may prevail through the weekend.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ stretches from 05N89W to 06N115W to 06N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is active from 05N to 07N between 118W and
124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about the
Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.

A surface trough over western Mexico and another one north of the
area are producing scattered showers over the Gulf of California
and offshore Mexico waters. Fresh to strong NW winds continue to
pulse across the Gulf of California, which are the result of a
broad area of high pressure building over the Great Basin. Seas
in these areas range between 4 to 8 ft. Off Baja California Norte
moderate to fresh to locally strong winds prevail with seas 4 to
6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, high pressure building into the SW United
States will support fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas
across the Gulf of California into Fri afternoon. In addition,
plumes of strong NE gap winds will funnel across the Baja
California Peninsula and into offshore Pacific waters mainly
north of Punta Eugenia through the end of the week. Looking
ahead, expect fresh to strong SW winds across the northern Gulf
of California Sat and Sat night ahead of a cold front moving
through the region. By Sun, gentle to moderate winds will prevail
through the remainder of the forecast period over the Gulf of
Baja California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong NE-E
winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading downstream to 89W.
Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found south of the
monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, gentle or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, High pressure centered north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds and
occasional rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. Seas
generated by the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will
propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala periodically
through Sat, with seas forecast to peak around 15 ft in
northerly swell tonight. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active near a surface
trough from 26N to 30N between 137W and 140W. This trough is
associated with a larger mid to upper level trough that is also
supporting a 1024 mb low pressure north of the area. Moderate SE
winds, with seas are 6 to 8 ft north of 20N and west of 130W due
to long- period NW swell in the area. Broad ridging dominates
the waters north of 15N and east of 130W. This pattern supports a
large area of fresh trade wind over the deep tropics from 05N to
20N, between 120W and 140W, with 8 to 9 ft seas in a mix of wind
waves and NW swell. The NW swell is also supporting 6 to 8 ft
seas over the remaining area west of 110W. Farther east, NE swell
from the gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are reaching
westward toward 100W along roughly 8N. Moderate winds and seas
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh SE winds between the the low
pressure northeast of Hawaii and the ridge to the northeast will
continue to affect the waters north of 20N and west of 135W
through Thu. Large NW swell will continue to propagate into the
waters west of 125W, and mix with shorter period seas associated
with the trade wind flow over the deep tropics. These wave
heights will subside to 8 to 9 ft and diminish in areal extent
through late week. Moderate winds and seas will persist
elsewhere. Throughout the weekend, fresh to strong NE-E winds
and moderate to rough seas will reach as far west as 110W along
roughly 10N from the gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

$$
KRV