528
AXPZ20 KNHC 070930
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Nov 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TD Fourteen-E:
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 13.4N 104.9W at
07/0900 UTC, moving east-southeast at 2 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is occurring from 12N to 17N
between 101W and 107W. The depression is forecast to dissipate on
Friday, although that could occur sooner. Fourteen-E will move to
12.5N 104.0W this afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 16N96W, resumes near
12N111W and extends to a 1012 mb low centered near 13N118W to
another 1012 mb low near 10N135W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered
moderate to locally strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N
between 88W and 94W, from 10N to 14N between 112W and 120W and
from 08N to 11N between 126W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is progressing southward through central portions
of the Gulf of Mexico, extending from 31N109W to 30N113W to
31N116W. Recent scatterometer satellite data show strong winds
occurring north of 30N and fresh winds occurring north of 27N.
Seas of 6 to 8 ft are occurring in association with these winds.
Residual N to NW swell is leading to seas of 7 to 9 ft north of
28N and west of 119N offshore of Baja California Norte. Locally
rough seas to 8 ft are also noted farther south, well offshore of
Jalisco. Moderate to fresh SE to NE winds and locally rough seas
are occurring well offshore of Guerrero and Michoacan due to the
influence of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. Otherwise, light to
gentle NW winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the
remainder of the Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds will continue across
northern and central portions of the Gulf of California today,
reaching southern portions of the Gulf this afternoon into Fri.
These winds will occur through Fri before slowly diminishing on
Sat. Moderate to rough seas will occur in association with the
winds. Rough seas offshore of Baja California will subside
today. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will
develop off the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight through Fri,
offshore of Jalisco through Michoacan. Looking ahead, N winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend into early
next week. TD Fourteen E is expected to stay south and west of
the southern Mexico offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate S to W winds are occurring across the
Central and South American offshore waters. A long-period S to SW
swell is leading to seas of 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador toward
the Galapagos Islands, with the highest seas occurring south of
02N. Farther north, seas of 4 to 6 ft within S to SW swell are
noted.

For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds will develop offshore of
Costa Rica through the forecast waters offshore of Ecuador today,
with moderate winds expanding into the offshore waters from
Nicaragua through Guatemala by Fri. Fresh SW winds are expected
from 01N to 09N east of 89W Fri through Sat. Moderate to rough
seas will occur with these winds. Elsewhere, southerly swell will
bring seas 7 to 8 ft across the Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands offshore waters through Fri before subsiding by Sat.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft will occur north of
the monsoon trough through this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information regarding
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E.

A trough has been analyzed from 27N118W to 30N120W, and ridging
dominates the remainder of the waters north of the monsoon
trough. Fresh N to NE winds are occurring north of 28N and east
of 130W, where seas of 8 to 10 ft are analyzed. Elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough, moderate NE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft
are occurring. South of the monsoon trough, fresh to locally
strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are occurring surrounding
a 1012 mb low centered near 13N118W. Otherwise, moderate to
locally fresh SE to SW winds and moderate seas prevail south of
the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will move to
12.5N 104.0W this afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Meanwhile,
fresh N winds and rough seas north of 28N and east of 130W will
slowly subside today. Winds will become moderate to locally
fresh this weekend into next week N of the monsoon trough and W
of 120W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will occur just south
of the monsoon trough this morning before diminishing, mainly
north of 05N between 110W and 135W. Looking ahead, moderate to
fresh S to SW winds and rough seas look to develop east of 110W,
from the equator to 10N, Fri into this weekend.

$$
ADAMS