518
AXPZ20 KNHC 262133
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 06N78W to 09.5N87W
to 06N118W. The ITCZ continues from 06N118W to 06N134W to beyond
04.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
03N to 09N east of 93W, and from 04.5N to 08.5N between 100W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh
N-NW winds across the Baja California waters south of Punta
Eugenia. North of Punta Eugenia, light to gentle N-NW winds were
observed, just ahead of an approaching weak cold front near 120W.
Seas are presently 4 to 5 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and 5 to 7 ft
across the remaining Baja Waters. Gentle to moderate NW to N
winds were observed across north and central portions of the Gulf
of California waters, with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere across
the Mexican offshore waters S and SE of Baja Sur, light to gentle
winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Fresh northerly
gap winds continue localized across the Gulf of Tehuantepec early
this afternoon, extending about 60 nm offshore. This northerly
wind flow has pushed scattered thunderstorms offshore of Chiapas
and Tehuantepec earlier this morning towards the southwest, and
are now well offshore of Tehuantepec and central portions of
Oaxaca.

For the forecast, a weak cold front is entering the Baja Norte
waters this afternoon and will move SE and dissipate across the
central Baja waters Sun. High pressure well NW of the area will
build into the Baja waters with and behind the front through late
Mon. This will lead to freshening NW winds across the Baja
waters late today through late Mon. Fresh to locally strong SW to
W gap winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California
tonight. Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will become N and
pulse fresh to occasional strong at night through early Mon.
Looking ahead, high pressure will weaken across the region by mid
week, leading to slightly diminishing winds and seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh
easterly gap winds across the Papagayo region extending offshore
to 90W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds continue
across the Gulf of Panama southward to 05N. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, while gentle
to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the trough as
far west as 93W. S-SW swell across the regional waters is
producing seas of 5 to 7 ft across the area waters, and 7 to 9 ft
from W of the Galapagos Islands eastward to Ecuador. Scattered
thunderstorms continue over the waters south of Costa Rica and
Panama to 03.5N.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse across
the Papagayo region each night and morning into next week as a
modest high pressure ridge continues N of the area across the
eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean. In the Gulf of Panama,
moderate winds will pulse nightly to fresh through early Mon,
then diminish slightly into mid week. Cross equatorial S-SW
swell will peak over the regional waters late today through Sun.
Active thunderstorms are expected over the waters south of the
Gulf of Panama for the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure dominates the waters N of 10N and W of 110W,
centered on a 1029 mb high near 37N140W. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE trade winds N of the
ITCZ to near 22N W of 129W and moderate to locally fresh NE
trades elsewhere S of 25N and W of 123W. Seas over these waters
are in the 6-9 ft range in merging S and N swell. A weak cold
front continues to move across the northern waters this afternoon,
and extends from 30N120W to 27N140W. Moderate to fresh N to NW
winds follow the front E of 130W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in new
NW swell. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds, and seas of 5-7 ft
prevail elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. S of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and seas of 7-8 ft in
S-SW swell prevail. Scattered thunderstorms continue within 120
nm of the ITCZ to the west of 106W.

For the forecast, locally fresh N to NW winds and rough seas
behind the cold front sweeping across the northern waters will
continue through tonight across the waters E of 130W, as the
front moves SE and gradually dissipates on Sun. High pressure NW
of the area will then dominate the region W of 110W through Tue,
with little change in winds and seas expected N of the ITCZ.
Cross equatorial S swell will propagate across the area waters
through the weekend, raising seas to 8-9 ft south of 10N between
100W and 120W through late today before seas slowly subside
through Sun. High pressure will weaken across the region Tue
night through Thu, leading to a modest decrease in winds and
seas.

$$
Stripling