482
AXPZ20 KNHC 281555
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1450 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N81.5W to 02.5N102W to
03.5N128W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 120 nm of the coasts from 03.4S to 07N, and from
02S to 03N between 93W and 105W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06.5N to 17N between 126W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Deep layered low pressure offshore of southern California along
about 124W has produced a 1014 mb surface low center near
33N124.5W. A weak frontal boundary spirals into the low from
27N121W to 31.5N117W and into the low. This pattern is producing
light to gentle winds across the waters of Baja California Norte
and across the northern Gulf of California. High pressure well
west of the area extends a ridge east and southeastward to the
cold front, and is producing moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds
across the central portions of Baja California waters and also
inside central and southern portions of the Gulf of California.
Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere across the area
waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to Puerto Angel. Seas
across the area waters are 5 to 7 ft in mixed W-NW and NW swell,
except NW of Guadalupe Islands, where seas are 8-9 ft in new
W-NW swell. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the central and southern
portions of the Gulf, and 3 ft or less in the northern Gulf.
Meanwhile, strong to near gale-force N gap winds have returned to
the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight, and are expanding offshore to
13.5N with building seas. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, low pressure offshore of southern California
and the associated cold front will both weaken and shift slowly
eastward across northern portions of the area, and into northern
Mexico through Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop in the
northern Gulf early Sat, ahead of the front, then diminish Sat
evening. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will gradually
build into the the Baja waters Sat through Sun. Winds may increase
to fresh to strong there Mon through Tue night. Rough seas across
the offshore waters of Baja will be reinforced by new W-NW swell
late today and then another pulse on Sun. Strong to near gale-
force N gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
tonight.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted across the
Papagayo region this morning, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Fresh to
locally strong N winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama and
extend southward to near 05N. Seas there are 4 to 7 ft seas. A
surface trough persists across the near shore coastal waters of
Colombia and NW Ecuador, and is focusing scattered moderate
isolated strong convection there within 120 nm of the coasts.
Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters.

For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh to locally
strong speeds each night and morning in the Gulf of Papagayo
through early Mon. Farther east, pulsing moderate to fresh N
winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through the next several
days, locally strong at night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the
remainder of the offshore waters through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1014 mb surface low pressure center is located near
33N124.5W, with an associated weak frontal boundary extending
south of 30N and east of 120W into the Baja Norte waters. To the
southwest of the low, a 1024 mb high is centered near 28.5N136W
and extends a broad ridge east and southeastward to near 115W.
This ridge is supporting fresh NE trades from 04N to 20N and
west of 125W as seen in overnight ASCAT scatterometer data.
Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere W of 115W, including
south of the monsoon trough. Fresh W-NW to NW swell has begun to
enter the area waters overnight and this morning, and is
producing seas 7 to 13 ft extends across the waters west of a
line from the Revillagigedo Islands to 06N131W, highest north of
27N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, a series of weak fronts or remnant frontal
troughs associated with the low pressure off of southern
California will move eastward and gradually weaken across the
northern waters through the next several days, bringing local
surges of moderate to fresh winds with their passage. Each
boundary will also usher in new NW swell, producing rough seas,
and keeping seas in the 7 to 13 ft across generally the same area
as currently seen. Little change is expected otherwise.

$$
Stripling