271
AXPZ20 KNHC 040821
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is
centered a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is expected during the next few days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this weekend or
early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well
off the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 99W from 03N northward. An area
of low pressure has developed where the wave axis intersects the
monsoon trough. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on
this feature. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N94W to 12N109W to
08N125W. The ITCZ continues from 08N125W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N
between 83W and 98W, and from 07N to 15N between 98W and 113W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the possibility for tropical cyclone development south of
southern Mexico.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie is centered W of Baja California
Sur near 22N113W. Strong to near gale force winds, and seas to 11
ft, are noted with this low. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of
3-6 ft, are noted over the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 7-8 ft, are noted S of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft,
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, located W of
Baja California Sur, will gradually weaken and dissipate through
early Sat as the system moves NW. Strong to near gale winds, and
rough seas, will decrease through early Sat as the system weakens
and dissipates. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of
California will diminish by early Sat. Fresh to occasionally
strong east to southeast winds and rough seas are possible off
Oaxaca and Guerrero as an area of low pressure moves west-
northwestward well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next
few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate east winds are noted over and downstream the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough.
Seas are in the 5-6 ft range across the discussion waters, except
to 7 ft over the Gulf of Papagayo.

For the forecast, moderate winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Papagayo region through the weekend, then strengthen early next
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S
of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over much of the waters.

Cross-equatorial swell will bring seas near 8 ft over the waters
south of about 01N between 102W and 120W through Sat. Expect
increasing winds and seas over the waters E of 120W this weekend
into early next week as a tropical cyclone may develop and move
over these waters.

$$
AL