819
AXPZ20 KNHC 060830
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N98W to 09N119W to beyond
13N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found N of 14N
between 101W and 107W. Another area of scattered moderate
convection is noted from 13N to 17W and W of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb located near 29N132W extends a ridge
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting
moderate to fresh NW winds. Seas of 4 to 5 ft in NW swell
prevail across the area. In the Gulf of California, light and
variable winds are noted per latest satellite derived wind data.
Seas are 1 to 2 ft. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore
waters, light to gentle winds are observed with seas of 4 to 6 ft
primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California producing
pulsing moderate to fresh NW winds and slight to moderate seas
into early week. Looking ahead, disorganized showers and
thunderstorms located off the coast of southwestern Mexico are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Gradual development
of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle portion of the week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern
Mexico during the next few days. This system has a low change of
tropical cyclone development through 48 hours, and a medium
chance through 7 days. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the Tehuantepec region by the middle
of next week as a northerly flow establishes over the western
Gulf of Mexico in the wake of tropical cyclone Milton E of the
area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted N of 05N while gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail between the Equator and 5N. Seas
are in general 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except 1 to 3 ft in the
Gulf of Panama, and in the coastal waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, gentle SW to W winds are forecast across the
offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica, while
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail elsewhere through
the middle of the week. Moderate seas, in long period SW swell,
will prevail across the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure analyzed near 29N132W dominates the
northern forecast waters. A 1012 mb low pressure is centered
along the monsoon trough near 15N135W. Fresh winds are occurring
within about 210 nm in the NE quadrant of the low center with
seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE to S
winds S of the monsoon trough between 98W and 111W.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
north waters early this week while strengthening some. The
pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the low
pressure along the monsoon will support an area of fresh winds in
the NE quadrant of the low center through at least Mon. The low
is forecast to open-up into a trough Mon night into Tue W of
area.

$$
ERA