406
AXPZ20 KNHC 011554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Flossie is centered near 17.4N 105.9W at 01/1500 UTC,
moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105
kt. Scattered strong thunderstorms are active within 90 nm in the
southwest quadrant of the center. Seas in excess of 12 ft reach
as far as 120 nm from the center of Flossie, with maximum wave
heights to 30 ft. Flossie will continue to intensify over the
next 24 hours, then weaken rapidly as it moves into colder
waters. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should continue to bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Michoacn, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding is possible. Swells generated by Flossie will affect
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N90W to 11N97W, then
continues west of Hurricane Flossie from 13N115W to 07N135W. The
ITCZ stretches from 07N135W to beyond 05N140W. Aside from the
convection related to Hurricane Flossie, numerous moderate to
strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N east of 90W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 08N between
135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Hurricane Flossie.

Elsewhere, a ridge extends over the waters north of 15N and west
of 120W, centered by 1027 mb high pressure centered near 39N137W.
This pattern is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds off Baja
California and the Revillagigedo Islands, where combined seas
are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate SE breezes and 2 to 3 ft are
noted across the Gulf of California. Farther south, light to
gentle breezes prevail off Oaxaca and Chiapas where combined seas
are 3 to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. The remaining waters off
Mexico from Guerrero to Jalisco are impacted by Flossie as
described in the Special Features paragraph.

For the forecast, Flossie will move to 18.1N 107.0W this
evening, 19.0N 108.4W Wed morning, 19.8N 109.6W Wed evening, and
20.6N 110.8W Thu morning. Flossie will weaken to a tropical storm
northeast of Socorro Island near 21.4N 112.0W Thu evening, then
become post-tropical and move to 22.2N 113.2W off Baja California
Sur Fri morning and a remnant low well west of Cabo San Lazaro
early Sat. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong SW winds over the
northern Gulf of California Wed.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop
several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico late this
week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives
this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the
next 48 hours, but a medium chance through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A ridge across the NW Caribbean supports fresh NE winds across
the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W, with associated
seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere in the Central
America offshore waters along with moderate seas in S swell.
Between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to
moderate from the SE to S with 7 to 8 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are
expected in the Papagayo region through Wed with moderate to
rough seas by Wed night into Thu due to the pressure gradient
between a ridge to the N and a low pressure along the monsoon
trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected. Moderate to rough cross equatorial
S to SW swell will affect the waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands through tonight. Moderate or weaker winds are
forecast across the entire region over the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remainder of the eastern Pacific region is under the influence
of a 1027 mb high pressure system centered near 39N137W. Its
associated ridge dominates the waters north of 15N and west of
120W, producing gentle to moderate winds as indicated by earlier
scatterometer data. Seas are in general 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell
north of 15N. Farther south, large S to SW swell of 8 to 11 ft
covers most of the area west of 90W.

For the forecast, the main issue will be the large southerly
swell persisting south of 10N west of 90W through late in the
week. Fresh to strong SW winds may be active for the next several
days from 10N to 15N between 105W to 120W, generating shorter
period waves that will mix with the longer period SW swell in
that area.

$$
Christensen