036
AXPZ20 KNHC 200925
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Aug 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W, north of 03N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W, north of 05N, moving
west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W, from 04N to 17N,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below
in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 12N122W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 04N
to 08N east of 83W, 09N to 15N between 83W and 102W. Scattered
moderate convection is active from 09N to 12N between 105W and
135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends from 1023 mb high pressure centered near
31N131W to Revillagigedo Islands, with a surface trough over the
Gulf of California. This pattern is supporting gentle to locally
moderate NW breezes and moderate seas off Baja California.
Moderate to locally fresh gap winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle breezes and
slight seas are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico. Gentle winds
and slight seas are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge west of the
Baja California peninsula and a trough over the Gulf of
California will support gentle to moderate NW winds with
moderate seas west of the Baja peninsula through the weekend.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will persist
across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 05N
while gentle to moderate winds are noted south of 05N. Moderate
seas prevail across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the waters
north of 05N through the weekend, except for moderate winds
pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo at night starting Thu. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected south of 05N. Cross- equatorial
southerly swell will propagate across the regional waters,
keeping seas in the moderate range through Fri, except in the lee
of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. Another
round of large swell will move into the waters off Ecuador and
Colombia by late Fri, and reach the offshore waters of Central
America by Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb high
centered near 31N131W. The pressure gradient between this area
of high pressure along with lower pressure within the monsoon
trough is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the
monsoon trough to 22N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters
are in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle winds, and seas of 4-7 ft,
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate
winds, and combined seas of 5-8 ft in southerly swell, prevail
south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
end of the week. A reinforcing surge of southerly swell south of
the monsoon trough is expected between 115W and 135W by midweek.
This may help build wave heights in the trade wind area from 15N
to 20N west of 135W by Thu. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen