908
AXPZ20 KNHC 072118
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near
10N74W to 05N90W to 06N101W. The ITCZ continues from 06N101W to
06N120W to beyond 04N140W. Convection is limited at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A modest ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre
Mountains in Mexico continues to support fresh to strong north
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. A 1022
mb high pressure center is analyzed west of Baja California near
26N124W. The associated pressure gradient is allowing for mainly
moderate NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and light to gentle
winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Moderate NW
winds are also noted across the central Gulf of California while
light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore
waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California, 1 to 3 ft in the
Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will maintain fresh
to occasionally strong gap winds and occasional rough seas across
the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec waters through Sat. Farther
north, strengthening high pressure NW of area will bring
moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja California, and mainly N
of Cabo San Lazaro, this upcoming weekend. Seas are forecast to
build to 8 or 9 ft within these winds. Mainly light to gentle
winds and slight seas are expected in the Gulf of California
through at least Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas diminish
across the Mexican offshore waters through Tue, except for fresh
northwest winds and residual northwest swell off Baja California,
mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region continues to enhance the trade
wind flow in the southwestern Caribbean and southern Central
America, resulting in persistent gap winds across the Papagayo
region, the Nicaraguan offshore waters and the Gulf of Fonseca,
extending to near 90W. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft across
this area. Moderate to fresh north winds are in the Gulf of
Panama reaching southward to near 05N as noted per a recent
scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas there are about 4 to 6
ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long-period SW
swell are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather
pattern across the region as a ridge will persist N of area.
This will support pulses of fresh to occasionally strong
northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region into early
next week. Peak seas will build to around 5 to 8 ft downstream
each late night through morning hours. Moderate north winds will
pulse to locally fresh each evening and at night in the Gulf of
Panama through Mon night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas in long-period southwest swell will prevail
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front extends across the north waters from
31N120W to 29N122W to 21N135W. Moderate to fresh north to
northeast winds follow the front along with seas of 8 to 10 ft in
long-period northwest swell. An altimeter pass confirmed the
presence of these sea heights. E of the front, a 1022 mb high
pressure center is located near 26N124W, with a ridge extending
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds along and north of the ITCZ to about
15N and W of 125W based on satellite derived winds data. Wave
heights are 7 to 9 ft in this area of trade winds from a
combination of wind generated east swell and a northerly swell
component. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will strengthen this
upcoming weekend. Its associated ridge will dominate most of the
forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. As a result, the
aerial extent and strength of the trades will increase west of
120W through Tue. Peak seas are expected to reach 10 or 11 ft
within these winds W of 125W on Tue.

$$
GR