304
AXPZ20 KNHC 050305
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Dec 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure over NE Mexico and lower pressure south of Mexico
will continue to produce gale-force N-NE winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region through Fri morning. There may be some
occasional gusts to gale-force during Fri afternoon and night.
Thereafter, strong N-NE gap winds will occur into early Sun.
Rough seas will persist into the weekend. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
08N83W to 06N90W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N90W to 09N115W and
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
05N to 08N and between 88W and 96W, from 04N to 08N and between
102W and 111W, from 06N to 10N and between 114W and 119W and from
06N to 11N and west of 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
on an ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region.

A subtropical ridge located well west of southern California
extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, sustaining
moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds and seas of 5-7 ft across
the offshore waters of Baja California. Moderate NW winds and
seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the southern portion of the Gulf
of California, while light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail in the rest of the Gulf.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, excluding the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, aside from the ongoing gale-force winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region, high pressure over the eastern
Pacific will continue to support mainly moderate NW-N winds and
moderate seas across the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters
for the rest of the week. Winds will diminish this weekend. Long-
period northwest swell is forecast to enter the waters north of
Punta Eugenia early next week, resulting in seas to near 10 ft.
Meanwhile, winds may increase to strong force along the entire
length of the Gulf of California by Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Updated

A 1027 mb high pressure system situated over northern Florida
continues to force fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of
Papagayo region and downstream waters to 91W. Seas in these
waters are 6-9 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to locally S-SW winds and
seas of 4-6 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will
support fresh to strong NE winds across the Papagayo region into
this weekend. Locally rough seas in NE swell associated with
these winds will continue into Thu. Farther west, rough seas
induced by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
continue through early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds
will pulse across the remainder of the Central American waters
through Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle southwest to west winds
along with moderate seas are expected south of the monsoon trough
going into the weekend, with the exception of moderate southwest
winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia south of 05N through
Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical ridge centered north of the area supports moderate
to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N to the ITCZ.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. The strongest winds and highest
seas are occurring in the western waters. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the western part
of the area through the end of the week. In the eastern waters,
fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas will continue to
spread downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of
Papagayo. A new set of long-period NW swell is forecast to enter
the NW part of the area this weekend. Otherwise, high pressure
will dominate the eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to locally
fresh trades and moderate seas through the rest of the week.

$$
Delgado