242
AXPZ20 KNHC 191550
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build
over northeastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico in the
wake of a cold front currently moving across the SW Gulf of
Mexico. This pattern will support strong to gale force gap winds
across the Tehuantepec tonight into Mon, and subsequently rough
to very rough seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
Mon evening. These winds and seas will diminish through early Tue
as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward ahead of the
next cold front moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. An
even stronger area of high pressure will build over northeast
Mexico and the western Gulf, supporting strong gales or even
storm force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid
week, accompanied by a broad area of rough to very rough seas
downstream.

The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the
largest number of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-
force events occur most often in January.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W
to 03N98W. The ITCZ continues from 03N98W to 03N115W to 08N130W
yo beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 11N between 121W and 126W, and from 12N to 15N between
134W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Feature section for information concerning
gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A ridge extends southeastward from 30N125W to the Revillagigedo
Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW
to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, and
fresh to strong NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, as noted in a
recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within
these winds. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are noted across
the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California, while
mainly light winds prevail over the northern part of the Gulf.
Seas are of 1 to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail
across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters where seas
are in the 3 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, in addition to the situation in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec discussed in the Special Features section, high
pressure building over the Great Basin will support fresh to
strong NW winds over the Gulf of California Mon night through mid
week, with minimal gale force winds possible Tue morning.
Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters
of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate winds
with moderate seas early this week. Long period NW swell will
reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight into early Mon
morning building seas to 8 ft there. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through early
this week.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to
fresh NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate
breezes persist elsewhere from Ecuador to off Central America.
Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except to 6 ft over the Gulf of Papagayo.

For the forecast, fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail in
the Papagayo region, with fresh to strong gap wind pulses mainly
at night through mid week. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by strong
gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon and Mon
night, then again Wed and Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of 15N and west of
110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and low
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to
strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft from 10N to 18N west of 128W. In
addition, the pressure gradient between the ridge and a low
pressure system located W of area is producing an area of fresh
to strong SE winds north of 24N and west of 137W with seas of 8
to 11 ft with NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate
seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between a deepening
low pressure to the west and the ridge to the northeast will
continue to affect the NW waters through Tue. Large NW swell
will continue to propagate into the waters west of 130W, and mix
with shorter period seas associated with the trade wind flow over
the deep tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 12 ft seas across much
of the area west of 125W through through the early part of the
week. These wave heights will subside to 8 to 9 ft, and diminish
in areal extent through mid week. Moderate winds and seas will
persist elsewhere.

$$
GR