979
AXPZ20 KNHC 101537
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Aug 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 21.9N 116.1W at 1500 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be near 12 ft (4.0 m)
within 30 nm NE of the center. Overnight satellite scatterometer
data showed that Ivo remains a very small cyclone. Recent
satellite imagery shows numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm of the center in the S
semicircle, and scattered moderate convection elsewhere within
90 nm S of center. Ivo is forecast to make a gradual turn toward
the west with a slight increase in forward speed through Tue.
Continued weakening is anticipated, and Ivo is forecast to become
a post-tropical remnant low Mon morning.

Swell generated by Ivo will continue to affect the south and
central portions of the Baja California waters today before
fading tonight. These swells will continue to produce moderate to
large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. In addition, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Ivo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 132W from 03N to 17N moving
westward 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is currently seen
in the immediate vicinity of the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 1011 mb low pressure  near
10.5N75.5W to 09N89W to 08.5N106W to 10N109W, then resume from
near 16N116W to 13N126W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is seen 02N to 12N
E of 91W, and from 07.5N to 12N between 98W and 111W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N
between 114Wand 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Ivo.

High pressure continues well northwest of the region along 139W,
extending a ridge southeastward to the coast of central Baja
California, north of Ivo. Outside of Ivo, gentle northerly winds
prevail across the waters of Baja California north of Cabo San
Lazaro. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are south of
Cabo San Lazaro east of Ivo to near 113W, and gentle to moderate
southeast to south winds prevail across the offshore waters
of Baja Sur between Ivo and 111W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in
northwesterly swell across the Baja Norte waters, and 4 to 6 ft
in mixed S and SW swell elsewhere off of Baja, except for south
of Cabo San Lazaro between Ivo and southern Baja California,
where seas are 5 to 8 ft in southerly swell generated by Ivo.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are over the north and central
portions of the Gulf of California, where seas are 4 to 5 ft.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the southern portion of the Gulf. Winds are
generally light and variable elsewhere from Cabo Corrientes to
Puerto Angel, while moderate north winds prevail across
Tehuantepec. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in SW swell across these areas.

For the forecast, Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression near 22.5N 117.5W this evening, then become a post-
tropical remnant low near 23.0N 119.6W Mon morning, then reach
near 23.2N 121.8W Mon evening, then continue westward and
gradually dissipate through Tue. Otherwise, the high pressure
ridge over the local area will weaken through Mon, allowing for
gentle to locally moderate winds across the offshore waters of
Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds are then expected
into the middle of the week. In the Gulf of California, fresh
southeast to south winds over the northern portion will diminish
to gentle to moderate speeds this afternoon. These winds will
change little through Wed night, then become fresh southeast to
south winds Thu and Thu night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region,
where seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell. Gentle
northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero
Peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of 10N
and the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 5 ft north of 04N,
and 5 to 7 ft in southern hemispheric SW swell south of 04N.

For the forecast, E to SE gap winds across the Papagayo region
will fluctuate in strength through the next several days. Light
to gentle winds will prevail across the remainder of the waters
north of 06N through early next week. South of 06N, gentle to
moderate southerly winds are expected. Cross-equatorial S to SW
swell will continue across the regional waters through tonight
before fading early during the upcoming week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
on Tropical Storm Ivo.

Strong high pressure of 1033 mb high pressure is located well
north of the area near 44N139W. A ridge extends southward from
the high across the waters north of the monsoon trough, and
southeastward to the central coast of Baja California. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure
to its south is producing moderate to locally fresh northeast to
east trades from about 10N to 24N between 128W and 140W, where
seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in SW swell. Mainly gentle to
moderate trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the
monsoon trough to the Equator between 110W and 140W. Overnight
satellite altimeter data revealed seas of 7 to 9 ft in SW swell
over this area. Outside of Tropical Storm Ivo, seas are mainly in
the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed swell.

The 7 to 9 ft seas south of the monsoon trough will slowly
subside through Mon. Latest NHC forecast advisory for Ivo
forecasts it to weaken to a tropical depression near 22.5N
117.5W this evening, then become a post-tropical remnant low
near 23.0N 119.6W Mon morning, then reach near 23.2N 121.8W Mon
evening, before continuing westward and gradually dissipating
through Tue. Elsewhere, the high pressure ridge north of the area
will weaken through early next week, with mainly moderate or
weaker winds expected north of 10N and west of 120W through Tue.

$$
Stripling