332
FXUS66 KEKA 192215
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
315 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure is building over the area. This will
strengthen through the weekend and into early next week bringing
above normal temperatures. Some of the warmer valleys may see
temperatures around 100 Sunday and Monday. Offshore flow
strengthens over the weekend bringing sunny skies and warm
temperatures to the coast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper low is departing south into S CA this
afternoon with ridging nosing in from the west behind it. Light
onshore winds and a strengthening low level inversion is keeping
the immediate coast fairly well locked in the stratus this
afternoon thus far. The ridge will remain in place and will
slowly amplify, resulting in a gradual warming trend. Temperatures
will peak early next week when the warmer inland valley
temperatures reach into the upper 90s to 100. These temperatures
will be 10 to up to nearly 15 degrees above climatological norms
and will bring areas of Moderate Heat Risk Monday and Tuesday.
Friday and Saturday, most inland areas continue to see some
warming with highs getting into the low to mid 90s by Saturday.
Northeast winds overnight will help keep much of the coastal areas
clear. Better offshore flow this weekend will bring chances for
ample sunshine and warmer temperatures to the coast; however,
northwest winds will become breezy in the afternoons and will
likely keep most coastal temperatures from warming much more than
the mid to upper 60s. Clusters and ensembles are continuing to
struggle with the timing of the ridge breakdown mid to late next
week.



&&

.AVIATION...Coastal cloudiness continued through most of the
morning, with some very brief scattering at KCEC. Stratus has been
clearing north to south this afternoon, clearing from the OR coast
and currently scattering from Del Norte. Low cloud is expected to
stick around along the Redwood coast in the lee of Pt. St. George
this afternoon, then surge back northward as a southerly wind
reversal develops. This should bring LIFR back to KCEC tonight.
Meanwhile at KACV, LIFR ceilings and intermittent mist continue.
Some clearing remains possible...but any, if it occurs at all, will
be brief. Ceilings lower again this evening and another round of fog
is possible overnight tonight.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds of 20 to 30 kts are forecast to persist in
the outer waters through this weekend, peaking in strength Friday
then trending down Sat and Sun, with a secondary maximum Saturday
afternoon. A Gale Warning has been issued for the Northern outer
waters, where sustained winds of 30 to 35 kts are forecast beginning
late Friday morning. These winds will generate steep seas, which are
expected to propagate into the northern inners Friday night. Winds
trend a few knots weaker over the weekend, then significantly weaken
Monday night and Tuesday as a ridge moves onshore, pushing the
pressure gradient (and thus core of stronger northerlies)
offshore toward the NW. Lighter winds are expected mid next week,
although confidence is low on details.


&&

.Fire Weather...Offshore flow (NE Winds) is ongoing this morning
and is expected to continue for the next several days. It looks
like it will be the strongest on Saturday morning with winds of 15
to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph on the most exposed areas of Del
Norte county. Winds will be lighter farther south and east,
although there is some uncertainty on how much lighter. This will
also bring drier air to the coastal mountains and recoveries are
only expected to be around 40 percent on the higher terrain. This
combination will bring elevated fire weather conditions so will
add a headline to the fire weather forecast for this in zones 203
and 204. Late in the weekend and early next week it looks like
winds will diminish some, although RH recoveries will remain poor.
MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470.

     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning
     for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475.

     Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png