


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
359 FXUS66 KEKA 020829 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 129 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm chances have decreased, but up to 20% chance remains over Trinity County this afternoon. Cooler interior temperatures and a deeper marine layer are expected Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will then trend warmer through the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...The abundant thunderstorm activity observed through late Tuesday subsided. The mid to upper low driving this activity weakens and begins pulling east today. There will be enough lingering moisture and instability for some limited thunderstorm activity this afternoon over E and NE Trinity County. Any storms that manage to form will be isolated with up to 20% chance over the the Yolla Bollys and the Trinity horn. The marine layer will trend deeper, which will likely help to maintain cloudy and cooler daytime temperatures closer to the coast. A shortwave trough will swing in from the west Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will be much mostly dry. This feature will however bring some subtle moisture and instability aloft, as well as steep lapse rates. There is a very low chance (up to 5%) for some late afternoon or perhaps nocturnal convection in NE Trinity as the trough passes Thursday. Gusty westerly northerly winds will also develop Thursday from the passing trough. Cooler interior temperatures will follow the trough Thursday and Friday. High pressure will begin to build back in from the Four Corners region into the Great Basin through the weekend and likely next week. && .AVIATION...Radar shows a pronounced decrease in thunderstorm activity at 06Z issuance. Overall, the probability of ceilings LIFR along the coast are 70-90%, slightly higher at ACV. Probability of lower visibility near 1/2SM or less is stronger than the signal for CEC. For now, going more with persistence and against the latest probability forecast of only about 30% for LIFR visibility at CEC, although confidence is not as high. Overall probabilities for ceilings to improve arrives quicker for CEC, with less confidence near ACV will lose the stratus deck. Wind speeds and gusts pick up for all terminals by late afternoon and evening from the northwest as drier air works its way in. && .MARINE...Northerly winds will continue across all waters, with gale force gusts for outer waters, and steep to very steep seas will propagate through the inner waters through Thursday. Stronger winds will persist south of Point St. George and Cape Mendocino especially through Wednesday evening before relaxing a bit. Conditions will gradually to improve for all waters by Thursday night through Friday. Expect moderate to fresh northerly winds on Friday and into the weekend, with the strongest south of Cape Mendocino. Wind are forecast to strengthen again on Sunday through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions are forecast to continue in the interior on Wednesday. The abundant thunderstorm activity observed through late Tuesday subsided. The mid to upper low driving this activity weakens and begins pulling east today. There will be enough lingering moisture and instability for some limited thunderstorm activity this afternoon over E and NE Trinity County. Storm that manage to form will be isolated with up to 20% chance over the the Yolla Bollys and the Trinity horn. The marine layer will trend deeper this week which will likely pull marine influence further inland. A shortwave trough will swing in from the west Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will be much mostly dry. This feature will however bring some subtle moisture and instability aloft, as well as steep lapse rates. There is a very low chance (up to 5%) for some late afternoon or perhaps nocturnal convection in NE Trinity as the trough passes Thursday. Lower daytime RH`s and gusty west and northwest winds are expected for Thu and Fri as this trough passes across the area. Interior temperatures are forecast to gradually increase over the weekend with moderate HeatRisk and mid 90s by Sunday. Further warming is likely next week with strengthening high pressure through the Great Basin region. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ455. Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png