936
FXUS66 KEKA 070738
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1238 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures inland this weekend. A slight chance
of thunderstorms over the Klamath Mountains and the Yolla Bollas on
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. Windy afternoons return to
NW California by the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION... A strong marine layer continues to impact coastal areas
of the CWA beneath a building high pressure ridge. Areas of dense
fog are possible along Highway 101 from coastal Del Norte through
Humboldt Bay/Eel River Valley, as well as coastal Mendocino through
Saturday morning. This ridge will contribute to much warmer
temperatures across the region this weekend, especially within
interior valleys while marine stratus keeps the coast cooler. Not
much change in the preceding forecast in terms of MaxT - NBM
shows 50 to 75% probabilities for daytime high temperatures
exceeding 95 degrees, especially in areas of interior Trinity and
Mendocino counties including Hayfork, Covelo, Weaverville and
Willow Creek. Higher likelihood of reaching 100 degrees on Sunday
for these areas while the rest of the interior still stands quite
warm in the upper 80`s and low 90s. Those looking to cool off
should exercise extreme caution if spending time in and around
rivers, as waters are still cold and very dangerous.

A semi-closed low aloft (700-500mb) is forecast to bring an increase
in mid level humidity and E-SE flow Sat-Sun. GFS and mid-range
models continue to trend with higher CAPE and instability over NE
Trinity mountains as early as Sat, however the soundings look super
dry in the lower atmosphere. Convective parameters for storms
increase on Sunday and more so on Monday. It will still be really
dry in the lower atmosphere and with 100F degree heat bubbling up in
afternoon a few updrafts could break through the mid level stable
layer. Once convection begins the storms may spread NW into Del
Norte County Sunday night into Monday morning. Hi-res CAMs are
beginning to show increased convective activity developing Sunday
afternoon. Forecast confidence remains low for this event due to the
minimal forcing for the potential storms.

Mid level cyclonic circulation is forecast to slowly meander across
the area early to mid next week. Moisture does not look to be in
abundant supply. Main impacts appear to be CG strikes and gusty
outflow winds given inverted-V profiles indicated by the GFS model.
NBM 12hr thunderstorm probabilities are sitting around 10-20% for
this weekend into early next week.

The potential for more storms on Tue. diminishes, but there may
still be enough moisture to tap into in far eastern Trinity county.
Brief ridging on Tue may be followed by a deeper trough Wed and Thu
next week. This trough looks quite dry and main impacts appear to be
a return of stronger gusty winds and cooler temperatures.



&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z TAFs...Prevailing LIFR conditions with OVC layer
at FL002 and visibility in mist/fog continue impacting KCEC and KACV
tonight, while VFR conditions prevail at UKI. Conditions are
expected to deteriorate in UKI after 12Z as southerly reversal push
stratus northward from Santa Rosa, before VFR conditions redevelop
after 16Z as the low clouds clear out. Meanwhile, stratus are
expected to be stubborn to scatter out again on Saturday along the
coastal terminal. However, HREF model guidances suggest another
period of SKC-SCT at KACV after 07/20Z, before onshore flow push
back stratus inland with LIFR conditions redeveloping after 08/01Z.
Surface winds will remain generally light from S to SW.



&&

.MARINE...Moderate to strong northerly winds persist outside 40-
60 nm of the coastal waters into Saturday morning. Nearshore, winds
are largely southerly. Seas remain steep and hazardous for small
crafts, but these gradually ease as winds remain light this weekend.
Sunday both winds and seas are forecast to be mild, though stratus
will likely create foggy conditions in the morning and evening.
Northerly winds gradually pick up again next week, with winds of 20-
25 kts possible by Tuesday, and gales possible by Wednesday. JB



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png