160
FXUS66 KEKA 112155
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
255 PM PDT Sun May 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Light to moderate rain showers alongside moderate south
wind will intensify this evening through early Monday. Showers will
gradually dissipate through Monday night with a return to drier and
cleared weather by midweek.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The effects of an approaching upper level
trough and surface cold front are well apparent across the area
today. Thick midlevel clouds have settled across even the interior
with highs dropping back into the 60s. Wind have turned southerly,
especially near the coast, with peak gusts recorded up to near 35
mph. The first rain bands are just starting to become visible on
radar with the first true rain likely to start falling along the
North coast by around 1800 this evening.

While this event will be the first truly wetting rain event in
several weeks, absolute rainfall will still be relatively modest.
NBM forecasts have narrowed a bit and hedge higher, showing most
likely
rainfall at high elevations of 0.9 to 1.6 inches with 0.3 to 0.6 at
lower elevations along the coast. Locations further south in
Mendocino and Lake County will mostly see only a light wetting
rain, mostly early Monday morning. Even along the highest and most
wind favored terrain, there is little potential (15% chance) for any
rain totals over 2 inches.

Wind will continue to increase this evening . Surface low pressure
skating the coast will enhance instability and wind mixing. Peak
gusts will most likely be no more than 45 mph even along high
terrain with only minor impacts. Instability will move over the
interior Monday, but rather than wind it may promote a slight chance
of isolated (15% chance) thundertorms over high terrain. That said
the very narrow instability profile resolved by models is unlikely
to support widespread or strong storms. Onshore flow will remain
enhanced in Lake County Monday with gusts over 30 mph, but otherwise
most of the area will be much calmer.

There is high ensemble confidence that generally weak ridging will
return through mid next week. That means warm and dry conditions for
the interior with an inconsistent marine layer along shore. Clearing
skies and lingering cold air Tuesday morning may allow for areas of
frost, especially in Trinity County, but recent rain will likely
generate fog and inhibit too much cooling. Even in a normally cold
place like Hayfork, NBM currently places only a 25% chance of
freezing conditions early Tuesday. The only other notable feature
will be enhanced onshore flow in the afternoons near shore Tuesday
and Wednesday with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...Ceilings have temporarily lifted to VFR early this
afternoon as southerly winds increase ahead of a front. Winds could
gust as high as 25-35 kts as the front moves onshore at the coastal
terminals late this afternoon. Rain will follow, knocking ceilings
down to MVFR with brief periods of LIFR/IFR possible during heavier
rain. Rain turns showery overnight, with ceilings largely remaining
IFR or MVFR. Winds remain breezy through the night at the coastal
terminals, and slowly begin to ease in the morning. Showers begin to
taper off by the afternoon. JB


&&

.MARINE...Southerly winds have increased as a front moves toward the
area. Near-gale to gale force gusts with steep seas are forecast
north of Cape Mendocino this afternoon, which will ease slightly to
fresh to strong southerly breezes this evening and overnight. Steep
seas will subside overnight, but a mid-period westerly swell of
around 7-10 ft at 10 seconds fills in early Monday, keeping seas
elevated. Fresh to strong northerlies and steep seas begin to build
again Monday night into Tuesday, peaking in the afternoon. NBM has
around a 30% chance of Gale Force gusts in the lee of Cape Mendocino
Tuesday afternoon. Breezy northerlies are likely to remain through
the week. JB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
     Tuesday for PZZ450-470.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 PM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 PM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png