304
FXUS66 KEKA 062244 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Eureka CA
244 PM PST Wed Nov 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds and dry conditions bring red flag
warnings for Lake and interior Mendocino. Cooler night
temperatures will bring frost to the interior for the next few
days. Rain is possible this weekend and early next week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...High pressure continues offshore as a trough digs
to our east, bringing offshore winds. These winds have given way
to clear skies and cooler overnight temperatures. Gusty NNE winds
over 45 mph have been observed on many of the mountain peaks and
lower elevation areas of Lake County early this morning and
afternoon. Lower elevation areas of Lake County could see further
ramp ups as winds mix down. Gusts up to 45 mph are possible in
low elevation areas of eastern Lake County, while ridges could see
gusts up to 55 mph. Dry conditions and gusty winds will bring
critical fire weather conditions to Lake and eastern Mendocino
Counties.

Chilly nights are forecast in the wake of this dry offshore flow.
Temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings could dip in the low to
mid 30s in southern Mendocino, Lake, and interior Humboldt,
potentially bringing frosty conditions. Freezes are possible in
Hayfork and Covelo. The coast might see some spotty frost around
Humboldt Bay and the northern Mendocino coast; NBM currently
gives around a 30% probability of temperatures lower than 37 there.

There is decent agreement for a shortwave trough moving through
the Pacific Northwest Saturday. How far south this will dip down
is the main uncertainty, but NBM currently gives around a 70%
chance of a half inch of rain in Del Norte and around a 40% chance
in Humboldt, with much lower probabilities elsewhere. A larger
system looks possible early week, with NBM currently showing high
probabilities of 1-2 inches in Del Norte and Humboldt, along with
some high elevation snow. Details for both these systems will
become clearer in the coming days. JB

&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today. Model guidance shows upper level winds migrating south
leading to a decrease in the chance of gusts, yet at KACV is likely
due to its proximity to elevated wind influence. Overnight, winds
should be light-to-moderate from the E/SE until mid morning tomorrow
when they will calm and become variable as a wind switch is due to
occur tomorrow morning when the pressure gradient minimally builds.

&&

.MARINE...Strong northerlies and the wind waves they create are
expected to remain through this evening. Tomorrow, a weakening land-
sea pressure gradient will decrease the force of the flow allowing
for lighter winds and possible southerly reversals to dominate the
marine forecast zones in addition to a weak NW swell (4ft@12s). This
weekend, a shortwave disturbance is currently forecast send a larger
NW swell to our area (8ft@14s) as well as moderate southerly winds
(and wind waves 4-5ft@5s) through the outer waters creating a fairly
chaotic sea state. This is expected to be the first of a few pulses
of swells/sharp wind shifts creating potentially hazardous
conditions from this weekend through next work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Northeasterly wind gusty winds continue along the
ridges tonight, especially in eastern Mendocino and Lake
counties. These winds will lower humidities down into the teens
and low 20s. The ridges around Lake County and Mendocino counties
could see gusts up to 55 mph, and lower elevations of Lake could
see gusts up to 45 mph. Therefore, a red flag warning has been
issued for zones 264 and 277 through early Thursday morning.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Red Flag Warning until 7 AM PST Thursday for CAZ264-277.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png