Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
006 FXUS66 KEKA 061126 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 426 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures continue across the interior today. A more fall-like pattern arrives this week, bringing temperatures down to near-normal and potentially rain by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Temperatures will continue to be well above average across the interior today as high pressure continues to dominate. Most valleys are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s, with triple digits possible in the warmer valleys of Mendocino and Lake Counties. Weak offshore flow continues to disrupt stratus and bring low to mid 70s to coastal Mendocino, well above average. An influx of mid-level moisture from the southwest will bring a few high clouds to Mendocino and Lake counties today. High-res models do show some reflectivity, but the lower levels look very dry. Any rain that does fall will likely evaporate before hitting the ground, but a few isolated sprinkles is not completely out of the question. Temperatures are forecast to begin to gradually trend downward starting Monday as high pressure begins to weaken. A shortwave moving north of the area Wednesday will continue to moderate temperatures, potentially bringing enough moisture and disrupt offshore wind enough to bring back coastal stratus. Another trough moving through Friday could bring a chance for rain. NBM probabilities show a 50-60% chance of 0.1 inch of rain or more in Del Norte and Humboldt Counties and a 20-40% chance in Mendocino, Lake, and Trinity Counties. Uncertainty still remains high with this system and the picture will become clearer in the coming days. JB && .AVIATION...Conditions are VFR this morning with continued light offshore flow aiding in maintaining dryer low levels. There have been indications of shallow, ground fog formation, and HREF holds a 30% chance for visibility less than 1 mile very briefly this morning around Humboldt Bay. There is some stratus forming along the S Oregon coast this morning, and some guidance attempts to send it around Cape Blanco and closer to the North Coast today and tonight. Probabilities of LIFR CIGS are very low, but do increase closer to the end of this 12Z TAF period (up to 40%). Prevailing VFR conditions at KUKI through the TAF period. && .MARINE...Northerly winds will persist through much of next week as the thermal trough remains strong over the interior in response to continued warm temperatures over the western states. However, with a broad trough over the eastern Pacific, the pressure gradient will remain not particularly tight over the waters limiting the strength of the northerly winds. Accelerated winds around Cape Mendocino in the southern waters will generate gusts in excess of 25 kts. Winds and short period seas will increase in the southern waters Monday, likely requiring Small Craft Advisories. A long period WNW swell will build to around 6 ft at 15 seconds on Monday as well. Winds and short period seas will be low for the northern inners creating a sneaker wave risk. && .FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions continue today with daytime RH remaining in the teens. Afternoon breezes will elevate fire weather conditions. Gustier WNW winds of up to 25 mph in exposed areas are possible Monday in Mendocino and Lake Counties, bringing locally critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures begin to trend downward and RH recoveries begin to improve through the rest of the week. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for CAZ101-103. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png