706
FXUS66 KEKA 072351
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
351 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Much drier and very cold weather will build this
weekend and into early next week. There is a possibility of some
more moisture moving in by mid-week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Much cooler and drier air will begin to advect
across the area today. Combined with offshore flow at night, this
air mass will allow for unusually cold conditions this weekend and
through early next week even along the coast. The ECMWF EFI is
indicating high confidence in very cold conditions with the
potential (20% chance) of some record breaking cooler temperatures
some nights along the coast.
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of Lake,
Mendocino, coastal Humboldt, Trinity and Del Norte counties due to
lower wind chills tonight through tomorrow morning. More cold
weather products may be needed later in the weekend and early next
week.
Cool conditions will begin tonight and continue into early
tomorrow, though sporadic cloud cover and recent rainfall will
likely fight against the strongest cooling adding some uncertainty
to how cold conditions might get. Lows along the coast will most
likely be just above freezing with lows below 30 in much of the
interior, except in valleys where fog may help keep warmer
conditions. In any case, even colder nights will arrive by Sunday
and Monday morning as conditions dry. Most likely lows along the
coast will be around 30 or even lower and lows in much of the
interior in the low 20s and even teens for Trinity County. Cold
conditions will pose a significant risk for people without
adequate shelter.

There is high model agreement (over 90%) that moist conditions will
return around mid next week, but the vast majority of models show
only light to moderate rain with generally few impacts. Only about
20% of cluster ensemble members currently show any potential for
heavier rain or snow. That said, cold weather leading up to the
event will open the door to potentially impactful low elevation snow
even if moisture is meager. The details of this next event will be
watched closely in the coming forecast updates. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions generally prevailed across aviation sites today.
A passing shortwave was the trigger for a plethora of multi-layered
middle clouds today...and just enough instability that kept isolated
showers over the region. /TA

Previous discussion: Another shortwave slides southward down the
West Coast late tonight, which should bring more light rain and
"possibly" MVFR ceilings to the Redwood coast late tonight and early
Saturday morning. Interior valleys, including UKI, may see fog and
low cloud development early Saturday morning. /TJ.


&&

.MARINE...Northerlies have ramped up this afternoon, especially
south of Cape Mendocino where gusts of 20 to 25 kts are being
observed nearshore. The sea state remains chaotic, with a
combination of short period wind waves and short to moderate period
swells from multiple directions. Winds will ease tonight as a
shortwave moves toward the area. The notable exception is around
Point Arena, where winds will remain breezy through the weekend.
Northerlies pick up again behind the system, with gale to near gale
force gusts possible starting early Sunday through early Monday. JB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for
     CAZ101>104-107>113-115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ455.

     Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning
     for PZZ470-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png