Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
530
FGUS73 KEAX 272050
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-280000-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
250 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025
...2025 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.
...Below normal flood potential through May along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border through Boonville...
...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will
likely experience minor to moderate flooding...
Outlook:
Through May, the probability of flooding along the Missouri River
from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 25 to 55 percent below
normal.
The probability of exceeding flood stage along the Missouri River
from the Iowa border through Kansas City ranges from roughly 10 to
15 percent. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show
probabilities of reaching flood stage ranging between 40 and 50
percent.
Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which
typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the
following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent
probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger,
Tarkio, Middle Platte, Crooked, Blackwater, Petite Saline, Grand
from Chillicothe to Sumner, and Big. All of these basins frequently
experience moderate flooding each spring.
Spring flooding is not expected to be caused, or enhanced by melting
snow. Flooding which does develop will be driven by heavy rain
producing thunderstorms which typically occur during the spring
months.
Recent Conditions:
During the past 30-day period the heaviest precipitation stretched
from Effingham, Kansas through St. Joseph and Unionville, Missouri.
Within this band between two and three inches of liquid
precipitation were observed. These amounts were generally above 150
percent of normal. The driest area was along and east of a
Kirksville to Clinton, Missouri line where liquid precipitation
amounts less than an inch were common and percent of normal values
less than 50 percent.
The 90-Day precipitation analysis showed below normal precipitation
along and south of a line stretching from the Kansas City metro area
through Carrollton and Kirksville, Missouri. Precipitation percent
of normal amounts showed widespread areas below 75 percent with
pockets below 50 percent along Kansas-Missouri border across east-
central Kansas and west-central Missouri. Liquid amounts ranged from
two to three inches across the drier locations. From northeast
Kansas into northern Missouri areas of normal to above normal
precipitation were common. Amounts were generally between four and
five inches with percent of normal values ranging from 90 to 125
percent.
Temperatures during the past 30-day period ranged from the middle
20s along the Iowa border to near 30 degrees south of the Missouri
River. These values were between two and four degrees below normal.
As for the past 90-Day period, the averaged temperature again ranged
in the middle 20s north to around 30 across the southern portion of
the HSA. These conditions were one to two degrees below normal.
Present Conditions:
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates around 45 percent of the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least
abnormally dry conditions with 8 percent of the HSA affected by
moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, 77 percent
of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions with
roughly 62 percent reporting at least moderate drought. In addition,
at least 28 percent is experiencing severe drought conditions, and 6
percent observing extreme drought.
The vast majority of the Plains region is snow-free. Only scattered
areas across North Dakota show any significant snow cover. Looking
at the upper portion of the Missouri Basin, mountain snowpack is
near normal.
Daily streamflow values indicate below normal conditions along the
Missouri River. Tributary streamflow values across eastern Kansas
are normal. Across the Missouri portion of the HSA, the streamflow
ranges from normal to below normal conditions.
Future Conditions:
7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to range from a
a half to one inch across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA.
The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favored
for above normal temperatures. In addition, near normal
precipitation amounts are anticipated.
Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal
regarding temperature for the local area. Above normal temperatures
are slightly favored across Oklahoma and Arkansas. Above normal
precipitation is slightly favored across eastern Missouri with
increasing probabilities further east across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region.
The next outlook will be issued on Thursday, March 13th.
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In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 37 43 27 33 <5 <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 79 90 70 71 9 9
Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 48 64 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 13 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Missouri River
St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 16 70 10 42 7 11
Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 13 62 9 24 7 16
Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 11 51 8 19 <5 9
Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 10 36 7 18 <5 8
Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 7 14 6 12 <5 <5
Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 41 80 6 23 <5 10
Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 44 80 6 18 <5 12
Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 47 82 7 19 5 14
Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 45 77 32 75 11 23
Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 48 80 10 16 <5 8
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 54 78 50 76 28 49
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:102 River
Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 13 37 7 11 <5 <5
Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 22 48 18 47 5 7
:Platte River
Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 74 85 52 59 6 6
:Little Platte River
Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 54 69 34 57 11 28
Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 65 79 26 41 9 24
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 23 26 8 8 <5 <5
Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 9 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 20 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 15 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 34 35 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Crooked River
Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 68 81 59 75 <5 <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 54 68 32 58 <5 20
:Blackwater River
Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 85 90 75 81 22 26
Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 92 94 57 58 9 9
:Lamine River
Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 54 65 34 53 <5 8
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 73 81 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 63 71 50 60 <5 <5
:Thompson River
Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 32 45 12 14 5 6
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 54 62 36 52 29 37
Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 45 59 15 25 7 8
Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 71 77 48 64 32 38
Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 83 84 81 82 8 8
Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 54 76 14 26 6 9
:Chariton River
Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 32 38 24 27 15 17
Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 55 68 29 34 17 17
:South Grand River
Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 53 62 30 39 <5 <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 92 92 86 82 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 43 48 <5 <5 <5 <5
La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 54 57 32 42 <5 <5
Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 38 46 32 43 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 7.8 9.2 13.9 21.3 28.3 29.2 31.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton 13.5 15.4 17.5 20.0 21.2 22.7 24.2
Tonganoxie 9.7 12.6 18.7 23.0 25.4 26.0 27.8
:Kansas River
De Soto 7.7 9.2 11.4 13.6 18.8 23.5 26.9
Turner Bridge KCK 7.4 9.3 13.4 18.0 25.1 32.8 39.3
23rd Street KCK 13.0 14.3 17.2 20.4 26.6 33.6 40.2
:Missouri River
St Joseph 5.8 6.8 8.2 10.7 14.5 20.8 27.7
Atchison 8.0 9.3 11.2 14.5 18.7 24.9 30.9
Leavenworth 3.0 4.0 5.7 8.8 13.8 21.4 28.2
Parkville 8.9 10.5 11.8 13.9 18.6 24.3 30.6
Kansas City 11.1 11.8 14.4 18.7 23.5 28.7 36.5
Napoleon 8.1 8.6 11.8 15.1 19.5 24.1 28.6
Waverly 11.9 12.8 15.9 19.0 22.6 27.7 30.0
Miami 8.7 9.6 13.8 17.3 22.1 27.4 29.2
Glasgow 12.7 15.2 20.1 23.7 28.1 33.4 37.1
Boonville 9.6 13.3 16.2 20.3 25.3 30.5 33.0
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 6.9 11.3 13.0 17.8 25.5 27.2 29.4
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 4.6 6.5 8.6 10.2 11.8 18.7 23.2
:102 River
Maryville 8.2 11.7 12.2 14.2 15.5 19.4 24.2
Rosendale 6.7 11.4 13.2 15.6 17.7 20.5 23.0
:Platte River
Agency 11.6 18.2 19.9 25.1 27.1 28.0 30.3
:Little Platte River
Smithville 14.0 14.4 14.5 15.7 18.6 22.2 26.1
:Platte River
Sharps Station 15.2 18.7 21.1 27.3 31.3 33.2 34.8
Platte City 12.2 15.7 18.0 22.1 25.3 28.5 31.0
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 26.7 26.8 28.7 31.0 34.8 38.4 40.1
Bannister Road Ka 8.6 11.8 14.1 19.1 25.7 33.3 36.3
71 Highway Kansas 7.9 12.2 15.1 19.2 25.3 32.3 34.3
63rd Street Kansa 11.2 13.8 15.6 19.1 23.4 28.0 29.5
Colorado Avenue K 10.8 13.3 15.1 18.0 21.6 26.8 29.7
Stadium Drive Kan 10.1 13.1 15.4 19.5 25.8 29.4 32.8
17th Street Kansa 14.0 17.1 18.8 22.4 28.0 31.1 34.0
12th Street Kansa 9.9 12.2 13.9 17.0 23.2 26.5 29.1
:Little Blue River
Lake City 5.6 6.5 7.7 15.3 19.5 23.9 24.2
:Crooked River
Richmond 9.3 15.1 19.4 21.8 25.0 26.7 27.1
:Thompson River
Trenton 10.8 15.0 17.6 21.8 27.4 31.4 34.4
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 3.8 5.9 19.1 25.4 32.6 37.2 45.1
Gallatin 5.3 7.3 21.0 24.4 32.1 33.4 41.5
Chillicothe 8.2 10.8 22.5 27.1 38.6 40.0 41.3
Sumner 12.9 17.5 30.7 33.1 37.6 38.9 42.1
Brunswick 6.3 11.3 17.4 19.5 25.0 28.9 35.0
:Chariton River
Novinger 4.1 5.0 11.5 14.9 22.6 27.4 29.8
Prairie Hill 4.6 9.0 12.5 15.5 19.7 22.3 23.8
:South Grand River
Urich 12.2 14.4 19.5 24.2 26.8 28.7 30.9
:Big Creek
Blairstown 14.5 22.8 23.3 23.9 25.7 26.9 27.3
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 15.7 16.5 20.7 24.6 33.5 36.3 38.2
La Cygne 8.8 10.3 14.5 27.6 32.7 33.6 33.9
Trading Post 10.2 12.2 14.2 23.8 34.4 37.3 38.3
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
Tonganoxie 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
:Kansas River
De Soto 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2
:Missouri River
St Joseph 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.9
Atchison 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 2.9
Parkville 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.9
Kansas City 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.4
Napoleon 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.0
Waverly 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4
Miami 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Glasgow 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
Boonville 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1
:102 River
Maryville 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.1
Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Platte River
Agency 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4
:Little Platte River
Smithville 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
:Platte River
Sharps Station 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2
Bannister Road Ka 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
71 Highway Kansas 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
63rd Street Kansa 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1
Colorado Avenue K 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9
Stadium Drive Kan 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
17th Street Kansa 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9
12th Street Kansa 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
:Little Blue River
Lake City 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8
:Crooked River
Richmond 5.7 5.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Thompson River
Trenton 10.2 10.2 10.2 9.4 9.1 9.0 8.8
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
Gallatin 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Chillicothe 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7
Sumner 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4
:Chariton River
Novinger 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Prairie Hill 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
:South Grand River
Urich 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.7
:Big Creek
Blairstown 6.6 5.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 13.5 13.1 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5
La Cygne 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1
Trading Post 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.
$$
SAW