624
FXUS63 KEAX 082042
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
342 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms from earlier this morning stabilized the atmosphere
  over much of the region. A few storms have formed across
  central and SW MO and are expected to move eastward.

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms expected over the next
  several days. These will mostly be scattered afternoon/evening
  convection or passing thunderstorm complexes (mainly overnight
  and early morning).

- Localized heavy rainfall and a few isolated strong to severe
  storms are possible. The best possible chances for strong to
  severe storms is Thursday afternoon and evening with damaging
  winds and heavy rainfall being the primary concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Showers and thunderstorms from early this morning have stabilized
the environment across the region. The remnant outflow boundary has
positioned itself just to the south and east of the area. Showers
and thunderstorms have developed along this boundary and are
expected to steadily progress eastward through the evening. A few
isolated storms are possible this evening mainly along and south of
I-70 and east of MO 13 HWY. As the storms propagate east, rain
cooled air in the wake of these storms may create a suitable
environment for fog overnight across the area. Depending on if
clouds are able to fully clear out overnight, some minor fog impacts
could be seen as far west as the KC metro.

The overall pattern continues to remain fairly active. The 500mb
synoptic layout is dominated by shortwave troughing over the Upper
Midwest, a large scale high over the desert southwest, and another
strong low off the Pacific coast. The high pressure appears to be
the most significant feature driving out weather pattern over the
next several days. At the surface, there is an axis of temperature
and moisture advection. The primary axis of warm air advection sets
up across the foothills of the Rockies while the primary axis of
moisture transport sets up across the MO Valley. Southerly 850mb
flow continues this advection for the next several days. NW 500mb
flow advects warmer air into the region straight into the axis of
moisture transport. Looking even higher, 250mb analysis shows a
little more progressive pattern of shortwaves which translate
downward into multiple embedded 500mb shortwaves creating a a
typical summertime ring of fire pattern around the outside of the
500mb high. This looks to keep the pattern fairly active with
scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of the forecast
period.

A passing upper level shortwave ridge Wednesday keeps the daytime
relatively dry. CAM model guidance has been fairly spread out about
precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon/evening. Most of this
uncertainty is due to how models are handling overnight MCSs/MCVs
with some dissipating the wave across SE NE and others maintaining
storms through SW MO. This could bring some chances for
thunderstorms primarily along and west of I-49 corridor.
Unfortunately, we are not really going to have much of an
increase in confidence until we observe the waves through the
night.

The SW CONUS high slowly migrates west opening up the NW flow
across the MO River Valley. This, in turn, increases the chances for
showers and thunderstorms particularly in the form of scattered
afternoon convection and overnight MCSs. Convective parameter look
elevated enough for some strong to severe concerns with the primary
hazards being wind and hail. Thursday afternoon looks to be the best
environment for severe storms as the SW CONUS high continues to
migrate westward. 500mb flow opens up allowing a deeper shortwave
trough to pass over the central CONUS catalyzing storm development
especially into the overnight. Probabilities for strong to severe
storms are higher across far NW MO concurrent with SPC`s Day 3
Outlook with heavy rain and wind being the most likely hazards. WPC
maintains at least marginal chances of Excessive Rainfall Thursday
through the remainder of the period. With PWAT values north of 1.5",
periods of localized heavy rainfall are possible. QPF through the
period sits around 0.5 to 1 inch; however, with those elevated PWATs
locally higher amounts are possible. This does pose a potential
flooding risk, especially near areas of already swollen creeks and
streams.

Zonal flow with stagnant highs becomes the primary synoptic regime
as we reach the weekend. This maintains the expected active pattern
with the more open flow of shortwaves increasing the potential for
scattered showers and storms. As typical for us, we sit between the
relatively cooler northern CONUS airmass and the warmer southern
CONUS air mass. This places us along the boundary where these
temperatures differentials set up a favorable environment for
showers and storms. Shifts in this boundary with forecast updates
will greatly affect the probabilities of precipitation. The good
news is that this oscillation of the boundary may mitigate the flow
of warm air and moisture into the area keeping heat indices just
below triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

High clouds with a few lower clouds linger through the
afternoon. Further RA/TSRA development this evening is
anticipated to be east and south of the terminals. Winds remain
variable becoming more southerly tomorrow morning. There is the
chance for some BR/FG development across central and NE MO
(around KIRK) with MVFR VIS impacts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull/Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel