433
FXUS63 KEAX 081808
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1208 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures today in the upper teens to low 20s before
  "warm up" to near-freezing high temperatures on Thursday

- Chances for light snow (30-40%) return late Thursday into
  Friday mainly for southern and southeastern portions of our
  forecast area

- High temperatures remain around freezing through the start of
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

A surface high remains to our west over the Great Plains region
keeping our winds light and out of the northwest. The cold airmass
that remains over our area combined with recent snowfall has
resulted in uncomfortably cold temperatures with high temperatures
today expected to range in the upper teens to lower 20s keeping us
15-20 degrees below seasonal normals. As the surface high continues
its track to the southeast, our winds will shift to the south this
evening into overnight Thursday helping us to "warm up". This will
result in high temperatures for Thursday being much closer to
freezing with areas closer to central MO expected see mid to upper
30s.

Thursday afternoon, an elongated trough extending from Saskatchewan
to the Four Corners Region merges with a cut-off low in Baja
California helping it back into the flow. As a result, cyclogenesis
occurs over eastern TX. Increased moisture transport in combination
with broadscale ascent out ahead of this system will yield chances
for light snow Thursday night into early Friday. Snow accumulations
at this time are expected to range from a dusting to around an inch.
Counties along the southern border of our CWA (Pettis, Henry, Bates,
and Linn) and surrounding areas are expected to see the highest
snowfall amounts with higher amounts further south. There is some
uncertainty however in snowfall amounts as guidance over the past
few days have been trending up. The 00Z LREF has suggested 15-20%
chance for areas south of I-70 to see accumulations above an inch
which is a ~15% increase from yesterday`s run. As of now, worst case
scenario (99th percentile), a few of our southern counties will see
around 2 inches, however the probability of this occurrence is
very low. One scenario that could increase the potential of this
outcome is if the low shifts further north and the progression
of the elongated trough is slowed to maximize forcing. However,
there is roughly a 1% chance of this outcome. Currently, it is
expected to track to the northeast through the southeast US.

Another system moves through Sunday afternoon that could result in a
chance (below 10%) for snow flurries in areas near the MO/IA border.
Confidence is low at this time so, I decided to keep conditions dry
for the weekend. High temperatures remain around freezing from
Thursday through Sunday. A cold front moves through the area Sunday
night into Monday, dropping temperatures a few degrees keeping us
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the daylight hours. Saturated
low levels may result in some low SCT clouds through the
afternoon. This may also lead to fog development overnight;
however, many uncertainties remain the primary being if winds
will persist through the overnight. If winds dissipate, BR/FG
impacts will be increased. Winds shift through the day becoming
southerly before southwesterly and gusty during the day
tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel