440
FXUS63 KEAX 181112
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms diminish in coverage through sunrise and
  into the morning. Then additional showers and a storms
  develop this afternoon, mainly south of a Paola, KS to
  Moberly, MO line.

- A strong cold front moves through with gusty northwesterly
  winds developing behind it from late this afternoon through
  the overnight hours. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible.

- Overall, more seasonal temperatures expected Sunday through
  the end of the next week. Temperatures drop into the 30s for
  some areas Wednesday morning, leading the potential for frost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

As of 06Z, radar imagery shows the cold front slowly moving
southward, from near Anderson County, KS, northeast to the
vicinity of Macon, MO. This puts nearly all the thunderstorm
activity behind the front and the anticipation is that by
sunrise, most of the convection will have shifted east and
diminished considerably in intensity. The front that had been
the focus for this activity becomes diffuse as well and while
we`ll be about 10 degrees cooler than Friday, that is still
about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Focus then
shifts to the redevelopment of showers and storms Saturday
afternoon as a stronger mid to upper-level trough approaches the
area from the west. Strong forcing associated with this trough
will lead to the development of widespread showers and storms
from southeastern KS into southern/ central MO. This activity
will likely move into our far southeastern zones during the late
afternoon and evening time frame. The most likely area to see
precipitation will be south of Paola, KS to Moberly, MO line.
Can`t rule out some isolated to scattered activity further
north, especially as the stronger cold front approaches, but the
best combination of forcing, instability, moisture, and shear
will mainly be south of the area and that area will see the most
widespread activity.

With the strong trough and its associated cold front moving through
the region, strong subsidence behind the cold front will bring gusty
northwesterly winds to the area from Saturday afternoon into the
overnight hours. The HREF shows fairly high probabilities (45-55%) of
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph in the wake of the cold front across
eastern KS and western MO. Have increased wind speeds and gusts to
between 30 and 35 kts given these higher probabilities. There
is a small chance (less than 10%) of winds over 45 mph so it is
very unlikely we`ll meet wind advisory levels with this frontal
passage.

Temperatures cool down back to normal levels Sunday, behind the cold
front. However, there will be a brief warmup again on Monday as
southerly flow increases ahead of the next front. Highs on
Monday may be 10 degrees above normal. But temperatures return
to near-normal levels again for the remainder of the week, in
the wake of this front. Overall, morning lows the next week look
warm enough to preclude the potential for frost. The one
exception looks like Wednesday morning as a surface ridge
settles over the area. With light winds and clear skies, decent
radiational cooling will occur with temperatures dropping into
the mid and upper 30s. Ensemble guidance shows some areas in
northern and northeastern MO with about a 50% chance of low
temperatures less than 35, with a 10-20% chance of lows below
freezing. Given the pattern, those coldest temperatures would be
in low-lying/ sheltered areas with a good potential for
widespread frost across much of northern and northeastern MO.

Late next week, in the Thursday night to Friday time frame, another
fairly robust shortwave trough moves through the central Plains into
the lower Missouri River valley. This system draws a plume of deeper
moisture back northward into the area and leads to our next chance
for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Patchy dense fog has developed across much of NE KS and NW MO.
This is mainly affecting the STJ and MCI terminals. Fog will
dissipate between 14-15Z this morning with VFR conditions
expected through the remainder of the forecast. A strong cold
front will move through the area late this afternoon/ early this
evening with gusty NW winds developing behind the front. Wind
gusts of 25-30kts are likely behind this front with winds
diminishing early Monday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB