210
FXUS63 KEAX 241130
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...Updated 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures Cool Down Through Tuesday

- Isolated to Scattered Shower Activity MO-KS State Line and
  Westward Monday and Tuesday

- Rain Shower Potential Shifts Eastward By End Of Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Cold front has pushed into southern Missouri as broad surface
anticyclone has moved in from the Northern Plains and spans much of
the central CONUS. The mid-level flow remains northwesterly with
closed-low system around the Hudson Bay region, and amplified ridge
over the southwestern CONUS. A subtle jet maxima is currently
positioned over the northern Plains this morning, and scattered
clouds have developed along the nose of this across eastern Nebraska
as noted on GOES nighttime physics imagery. Some of this may work
southeastward this morning, but eventually stronger AVA should take
over to promote enough subsidence to clear a decent amount of this
out. There does appear to be a localized vort maxima that will be
moving downstream from the mid-level ridge axis later this afternoon
but current track would keep the lift associated with it over
Central Kansas. Therefore, will be looking at a dry forecast from
far eastern Kansas to Central Missouri for this afternoon.
Temperatures will be in the upper 70s, with perhaps some areas south
of Hwy. 50 touching around 80F by late afternoon. Winds will be
fairly light, though surface anticyclone sliding in might provide a
more persistent northerly direction through the afternoon rather
than variable, which is expected to keep temperatures today cooler
than Saturday`s highs.

Monday and Tuesday, dAVA increases especially over the Mississippi
River Valley into the Ohio River Valley. This will strengthen the
surface anticyclone eastward into the Great Lakes Region. Most of
Missouri will experience subsidence in this setup keeping conditions
dry. Deterministic model solutions continue to depict to a mid-level
vort maxima moving downstream focused mainly across Central Kansas
into the Flint Hills that will result in some precipitation. The 00z
CAMs last night have been depicting the forcing to be west of Hwy.
75 in Kansas. However, a few of the synoptic scale ensemble suites
such as the GEFS still paint some lower end probabilities for light
but measurable rainfall to reach extreme eastern Kansas and extreme
western Missouri, just southwest of the Kansas City metro. Have used
a blend to include both some CAM guidance and other ensembles to add
slight chance POPs (15-24%) mainly west and southwest of the Kansas
City metro on Monday and Tuesday, as we may see some weak lift or
could even see the nose of isentropic ascent, though the bulk of
this will be over central Kansas. Temperatures are forecast to be in
the mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday, and this is where the NBM
inner-quartile spread sits for most points in the forecast area. The
10th-90th percentile spread is a bit larger, as some inputs still
bring heavier rain eastward and project temperatures in the mid 60s,
but these are very much outlier solutions at the moment.

Strong PV anomaly over the Pacific will promote troughing over
portions of the western CONUS that will force the ridge axis
eastward and begin to de-amplify the pattern. By the end of this
week, this will send the track of the localized vort maxima into the
lower Missouri River Valley, expanding rain shower chances into
Central Missouri. Ensemble probabilities remain elevated for
measurable precipitation through the end of the upcoming work week.
High temperatures Wednesday through the end of the next week remain
uncertain with wider spread amongst NBM members. This is in
competition between low-level flow turning southerly and providing
modest WAA, and the potential for expansive cloud cover and
precipitation during the afternoon that would impede daytime
heating. We may see a return to the lower and mid 80s Wednesday and
Thursday, with cooler temperatures than Friday where we are more
solidly in widespread rain showers and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Radar is showing returns in northeast Kansas this morning,
therefore may see a isolated sprinkles at MCI and MKC early this
morning. This should dissipate quickly though. Expecting some
VFR cloud cover through this morning, clouds should scatter out
by the afternoon. Winds will be light out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull