175
FXUS63 KEAX 061047
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
547 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cool/below normal temperatures today through Tuesday morning,
  then warming rest of work week

  - Damaging Freeze possible for susceptible vegetation
     - Mainly Mon/Tue mornings

* Greatest rain chances this morning (20-30%) south of I-70

* Additional rain/thunder chances mid-week, mainly Wed/Thur but
  no hazardous weather expected

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

The main concern in the short term will revolve around the potential
for damaging freeze conditions tonight and again tomorrow night.
However, before we get to that, today we will be watching a upper
level trough currently across the southern Plains, swing through the
area this morning. That will bring the potential (20-30%) for some
light rain, possibly mixing with snow for areas south of I-70. For
this afternoon surface high pressure will build into the area from
the central Plains which will allow skies to clear (with the
exception of the southeastern CWA where cloud will persist).
Increased sunshines will allow highs to rise into the low to mid
50s. Surface high pressure will remain in control tonight allowing
lows to plummet into upper 20s to the low 30s. This will bring
freeze conditions to much of the area and with the growing season
well underway due to a very warm March, sensitive vegetation will
need to be protected. A freeze warning has been issued for tonight
into Monday morning. Tonight into Monday a upper level shortwave will
dig through the local area into the mid-Mississippi River Valley.
This will force a weak cold front through the area tomorrow morning.
This front will will not have much in the way of cold air behind it
and in fact it will provided stronger mixing allowing highs to rise
into the 50s to lower 60s. Monday night a surface ridge will build
into the area from the Upper Midwest. This will provide a good
radiational cooling setup with light winds and clear skies allowing
temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to near 30. A freeze watch is
in effect for Monday night into Tuesday morning and this looks like
the most likely timeframe to see an area-wide freeze. The surface
ridge will side east of the area Tuesday morning and WAA will get
underway. this will aid in temperatures rising into the mid 50s to
mid 60s.

The midweek period becomes slightly more active as as a upper level
trough moving through the northern Plains will force a cold front
through the forecast area Wednesday. This will bring a slight chance
of precipitation (20-30%) to the northern CWA Wednesday however,
moisture will be lacking over the area and the recent trend has been
to keep precipitation north of the area nearer the better upper
level forcing. By Thursday, the upper level pattern across the CONUS
is for ridging across the Rockies and troughing over the Great Lakes
Region. This leaves the local area under northwest flow on which
another upper level trough will dig from the Upper Midwest into the
local area bringing another chance for showers and Thursday storms
on Thursday. Despite the potential for active weather temperatures
are still expected to be mild through this period with highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday and the mid 60s to near 70 on
Thursday. Friday through next weekend looks dry and warm as the
upper level ridge over the Rockies begins to build toward the local
area Friday with the ridge axis setting up over the area from the
weekend. Expect highs in the 70s next weekend with few locations
possibly touching 80 on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with bkn mid-lvl clouds
expected thru 14Z-15Z aft which just sct high clouds are
expected. Winds will be out of the north btn 5-10kts before
becmg lgt and vrb aft 22Z-00Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     MOZ020>025-028>031-033-037>040-043-045-046-053-054.
     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for MOZ020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73