089
FXUS63 KEAX 300908
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
408 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures again today.

- A cold front moves through the region tonight, bringing much
  cooler and drier air into the area for tomorrow.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible tomorrow
  afternoon.

- Temperatures begin to rebound on Wednesday, with well above
  normal temperatures returning on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Warm and dry weather continues across the region as we remain
underneath mid level ridging sandwiched between a closed mid
level low over southern Appalachia and an approaching mid/upper
trough moving into the Northern High Plains. Another warm day is
expected today, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s across the
region under generally clear skies with light and variable
winds.

By 7 pm tonight, a mid level low moves into northern
Manitoba with the associated trough extending southward into
the Midwest. This will send a cold front through the region from
northwest to southeast, with models generally agreeing on entry
into far NW Missouri by around 8 pm tonight, through the KC
metro by around 1 am, and completely through the CWA by around 4
am tomorrow morning. A much cooler and drier air mass will
filter into the region behind the front, with surface high
pressure building in over the area tomorrow afternoon. Afternoon
highs for tomorrow afternoon should range from the upper 60s to
the lower 70s with dew points in the 30s and northerly winds on
the order of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. The
pairing of low RH, breezy northerly winds, and pre existing
drought conditions could yield elevated fire weather conditions
for Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures begin to rebound on Wednesday, and increase even
more on Thursday into the mid to upper 80s, as mid level flow
becomes more zonal with higher 500 mb heights and large positive
850 mb temperature anomalies overspreading the region from the
west southwest.

Model guidance begins to differ quite a bit in regards to
temperatures as we head into Friday and next weekend. It is
possible that we get another cold front to move through the
region in association with troughing over the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region, while it is also possible that the
front and the significantly cooler air hangs up just to our
north. The most recent NBM guidance shows the 25th and 75th
percentiles for high temperatures at MCI for Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday at 72/81, 72/84, and 74/83, respectively. Guidance
continues to be consistent in keeping our region dry through at
least the end of next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the period under
generally clear skies, although some patchy fog may be possible
around sunrise this morning. Winds will be light and variable
overnight, becoming generally southerly by late Monday morning
and remaining light (below 10 knots).

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW