282
FXUS63 KEAX 211139
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
639 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patches of fog return this morning primarily across NE MO. A
  few spots of visibility under 1 mile is expected.

- Warm air continues today with highs near 90 degrees. Drier
  air continues to advect in making it feel less muggy out
  there.

- Next chance for rain looks to be Saturday starting early
  morning and continuing through the morning to early afternoon.

- Cooler conditions follow Saturday`s storms with high early
  next week in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

North northeasterly flow continues to dominated the upper level wind
regime; however, it seems that cold air advection into the region
has been rather weak delaying the onset of cooler temperatures. A
midlevel high across eastern KS combine with a surface high in the
Upper Midwest is facilitating a conveyor of warm air across central
to western KS across NE. These highs clear out skies enabling
diurnal heating to spill the channel of warm air advection into
western MO. This is keeping highs closer to 90 degrees. Where there
has been a significant impact is in dew point temperatures which
have lowered notably from the mid 70s to the mid to upper 60s. This
has brought relief from the muggy conditions of the previous several
days.

The next chance for precipitation comes Saturday as a deep cyclone
descends out of interior Canada across the central CONUS. This drops
a cold front that looks to reach the area early Saturday morning
bringing with out showers and thunderstorms. The pre-frontal
environment looks relatively benign which limits concerns for strong
to severe storms. PWATs of 1-1.5 inches do suggest a potential for
isolated heavy downpours should a storm develop a more robust
updraft. Progress of the front begins to slow through the day
Saturday having two effects, 1) it keeps storm chances around
through much of the morning into the early afternoon, and 2) it
allows the environment ahead of the storms to destabilize a bit
increasing chances for more organized convection across the southern
part of the CWA.

Cooler air flows in behind these storms with highs Sunday
barely eclipsing 80 degrees for most. A low level lee trough
presents the opportunity for some scattered storms Sunday
afternoon; however, there are some uncertainties with
precipitation chances. Otherwise, a broad air mass boundary
looks to set up between the warm air of the desert SW and the
cooler air over our area. This creates a band of increased
probabilities of precipitation from Cheyenne, WY southeast
through Springfield, MO. Different models oscillate this
boundary north and south with consensus only clipping our far SW
corners with rain chances. This pattern looks to persist
through late next week when 500mb flow becomes a little more
zonal opening up pent up shortwaves across the Rockies. This
brings additional rounds of precipitation late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

IFR VIS across central MO due to BR/FG is expected to break up
over the next couple hours as the sun rises. Otherwise, VFR
conditions with some diurnal clouds are expected over the
terminals. CIGs lower slightly after sunset, but should remain
VFR. Winds remain generally light out of the northeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel