194
FXUS63 KEAX 130349
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain possible east of I-35 tonight.  Rainfall amounts are
  expected to generally be a tenth of a inch or less.

* Warming temperatures expected Tuesday and beyond keeping
  temperatures above seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Warm air advection showers rooted near 10-12K
feet have developed within the last hour or so across northern
Missouri.  These showers are evaporating before reaching the ground.

Surface trough centered just north of Minot ND along the border of
Saskatchewan and Manitoba is expect to deepen and shift northeast
through the overnight.  Attendant cold front across the eastern
Dakota into Central Nebraska is expected to build southeast tonight
entering northwest Missouri after 03Z Monday, shift southeast of I-
35 after 06Z tonight. Cold front is expected to stall east of I-35
with weak isentropic lift develops after 06Z along and ahead of the
front on the 305-310 K surface. The lift is largely confined to 700
mb and above, and a wealth of dry air exist in the sub cloud layer.
Therefore, light rain showers are possible overnight into Monday
morning; however, dynamics dwindle farther to the east.  Expect
heaviest precipitation in Linn and Miami Counties, with decreasing
amounts farther east.  Rainfall amounts look to be light, generally
totaling a tenth of an inch or less in locations that see any
precip. What limited lift exists dwindles after 12Z Monday though
scattered to broken clouds will remain throughout the day. The
stalled front is expected to lift back to the north late on Monday
as a series of short waves move northeast into the Northern Plains.

Northwest Missouri has a small chance of being
clipped by the disturbance on Tuesday, but is dependent on the
strength of the upper level ridge re-building north across the center
of the country. This will lead to primarily dry conditions and a
warming trend through late week.  With the above average
temperatures continuing, outside of Monday and Tuesday, the drought
conditions are likely to continue if not increase some throughout
the week.

Slow moving upper trough across the western US much of the week
attempts to shift towards the central US late week.  This system is
pushed north by the upper ridge in place, but approaching cold front
could re-introduce precipitation to the region as early as Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A sharp cold
front, with a fairly abrupt wind shift, will move south through
the area in the next 2-5 hours. The front actually shows up on
radar and tracked its timing into STJ is around 05Z, MCI around
06Z, and MKC and IXD around 07Z. Additionally, a few showers may
affect MKC and IXD ahead of the front. Winds shift to the north
behind the front and may see an hour or two gusts in the
20-25kt range. Winds then diminish for the remainder of the
overnight and shift to the east-northeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB