208
FXUS63 KEAX 171129
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible across eastern KS/far
western Missouri this afternoon.

- Drier and cooler conditions Thursday and Friday.

- Rain chances through the weekend as a series of short waves
  move through the region, though below normal temperatures
  remain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Much quieter weather expected the next few days with Canadian high
pressure building into the Upper Midwest.  Upper level pattern shows
large upper level ridge across the west, with upper level trough
over the Great Lakes region.  This upper level trough is expected to
shift east over the next few days, while the western ridge builds
and expands east reinforcing northwest flow across the Central US.
This will help usher a few upper level disturbances into the region,
but not till the weekend.

For today, any early morning valley fog should quickly burn off.
Lingering low level moisture combined with steepening mid-level
lapse rates will certainly be enough to support cumulus development
across the region after 16Z and the potential for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm across far eastern Kansas into far western
Missouri. Any precipitation amounts should be very light with this
activity, so have limited precipitation chances to 20% or less. With
little spread amongst the models, sided close to consensus for high
temperatures today. Drier low level air filtering into the region
should be enough to bring an end to the potential for isolated
storms from north to south throughout the afternoon.

This dry air along with light winds will lead to temperatures 5-10
degrees below normal Wednesday through Friday.  A series of short
waves are expected to work into the region Saturday into Sunday;
however, limited instability may reduce precipitation potential.
Below normal temperatures look to continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with only some
passing mid to high level clouds. Winds will remain generally
light (less than 10 knots) and out of the north.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BMW