281
FXUS63 KEAX 091731
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above seasonal temperatures continue before warming
  back to well above normal Sunday.

- Two opportunities for rain fall come Friday and Monday.
  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms anticipated.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A combination of a subtle 500mb shortwave and an 850mb moisture
boundary oriented NW to SE from approximately Beatrice, NE to
Butler, MO has found just enough instability to generate a few
updrafts creating isolated showers and storms. At the moment
these showers and storms are concentrated across areas south of
I-70 particularly south of Harrisonville; however, chances for
at least sprinkles to showers exist across the totality of this
line. Precip chances decrease as the upper level wave moves out
of the area later this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Ridging continues to dominate the weather over the central US. This
keeps quiet seasonal conditions around with temperatures bottoming
out on the 40s and 50s. The core of the surface high has moved off
to the east turning winds southerly opening up warm air and moisture
advection from the Gulf. Temperatures will gradually warm elevating
above average to the 80s by the weekend. A couple quick moving
systems keep temperatures from advancing further upward. This
oscillating pattern of normal to above normal temperatures looks to
continue through the forecast period. A lot of these temperatures
fluctuation are due to perturbations in the upper level flow. While a
large ridge dominates the south central CONUS, the edges of this
system area a fair bit more malleable resulting in several upper
level embedded shortwaves. This combined with passing strong troughs
to the north open up opportunities for disturbances to spread
southward into our area.

The first opportunity appears overnight Thursday into early Friday
morning. A strong low pressure system traverses southern Manitoba
and Ontario dropping a cold front across the CONUS. This front
advances across the central CONUS bringing chances for showers and
thunderstorms to our area early Friday morning. Precipitation
potential increases after midnight Friday continuing through the
morning hours with storms expected to be out of the area by midday.
Model guidance paints a large vein of moisture transport into
eastern KS ahead of the fronts arrival; however, the remaining
convective parameters are a bit lacking. While most models suggest
the front will be able to sufficiently tap into the moisture and
develop showers and thunderstorms, the solutions proposed amongst
them are a bit different. Broad scale deterministic models want to
paint a fairly broad near MCS like structure vs more high resolution
CAM guidance which keeps convection more isolated to scattered.
Empirically, moisture plus lift with a lack of CAPE and shear point
more towards the isolated to scattered coverage solution. The
primary uncertainty in organization will be the assembly of any
nocturnal LLJ or the presence/absence of upper level CVA.
Regardless, this is not looking to be a significant event with
chances for strong to severe storms being minimal.

The next chance for showers and storms arrives Monday. The synoptic
profile looks somewhat similar to Friday`s with the exception of the
high being displaced slightly to the east and a tag team of troughs
across the western CONUS and Great Lakes. The kinematic setup looks
much more favorable for strong frontogenesis; however, the moisture
profile looks less favorable at this juncture. The other uncertainty
is model guidance suggestion of the front becoming better organized
east of our area, across central and eastern MO which would
significantly shift rain chances. While the setup looks more likely
for precipitation to make it all the way into MO, the uncertainty of
where the boundary will best setup up keeps the PoP forecast fairly
broad and marginal at this time. We will have to see how the upper
level systems progress to gain confidence in potential forecast
outcomes as many hinge on the Friday trough over Canada becoming cut
off and stalling over the Great Lakes. Where this high takes up
residency will be crucial in determining the east-west progression
of frontogenesis.

Long range guidance keeps the pattern active bringing multiple
perturbations in the upper level flow. This will likely result in
fluctuating temperatures oscillating between seasonal normals and
values above. This is not entirely uncommon during the transitional
seasons and while it might make it difficult to figure out if it is
t-shirt or sweater weather (or both), these thermal boundaries
boosted by kinematic influences may present some opportunities for
rain allowing us to slowly lessen the continuing seasonal
precipitation deficit across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A couple items of note within this TAF period. Initially, a high
MVFR cloud deck that spread in from the south continues to
linger around the KC Metro sites, but has recently shown
growing signs of mixing out/lifting on visible satellite. So
have mentions of MVFR ceilings for the next couple of hours
before going VFR. Periodic gust up to 20kts through 00z, then
easing overnight. Frontal boundary and TSRA chances move in late
overnight, primarily from around 08z through 14z, as the
boundary drifts from NW to SE. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
periodic visibility restrictions may occur should heavier rain
cores drift over the immediate TAF sites. Given scattered
expectation and being on the SW edge of majority of activity,
have PROB30 mentions for this issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pesel
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Curtis