436
FXUS63 KEAX 272302
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
602 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms possible late this evening. Some storms could be
  strong to severe with hail as the main threat. Uncertainty
  remains high on whether storms will develop or not.

- Above normal temperatures and wind gusting around 40 mph on
  Friday.

- Another round of thunderstorms expected Saturday night into
  Sunday. Still some uncertainty on timing of these storms and
  potential severity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

A continued active weather pattern continues today into the
weekend. Today mid-level ridging will flatten a bit leading to
nearly zonal flow with a disturbance rippling through this
evening. This afternoon expect a warm frontal boundary to surge
north with gusty southerly surface winds leading to a large warm
sector. Strong mixing this afternoon will help temperatures
soar into the upper 70s and low 80s for the western half of the
forecast area. For reference normal high temperatures for late
March are in the low 60s. Record high temperatures are in the
low to mid 80s so we will possibly be pushing close to those
values at some sites today.

Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this evening along the warm front as it lifts north in the vicinity
of a robust low level jet. Ample mixed layer CAPE of 500-1500 j/kg
will be present across northern MO and KS along with bulk shear
around 40 knots. This should be sufficient to maintain any storms
that develop, however it is not clear at this point if we will be
able to overcome inhibition along with dryer air pushing into the
area. Morning CAMs show little in the way of development this
afternoon suggesting that storm development may be hindered. The
last several solutions have variably shown storms develop vs staying
dry so it`s still quite unclear how this will play out. Nonetheless,
if storms are able to develop, expect a short lived window for all
modes of severe before storms become more elevated. The greatest
risk with storms that develop this evening will be severe hail.
Again, there is a high amount of uncertainty with this forecast and
whether the atmosphere will succeed in storm initiation. Its
possible that most stay dry through the night with limited impacts,
but the threat of severe storms remains non zero given the
environment, thus close attention should be paid to the forecast
later this evening.

After any storms this evening, the return of dry conditions is
expected overnight. Temperatures remain well above average on Friday
with continued warm air advecting into the area. Southerly surface
winds will be quite gusty on Friday with gusts up to about 40 mph
possible through the afternoon. The good news is that fire weather
concerns look minimal with more moist air moving in and relative
humidities only falling to around 45-50%. As far as temperatures go,
highs in the mid to upper 70s look likely. Much of Saturday looks
similar, although winds will be weaker. Expect dry weather with
highs in the 70s again.

Saturday night our attention turns to another wave tracking toward
our forecast area. As it tracks east it will push a cold front
southeast toward our forecast area Saturday afternoon. Right now
there remain some differences in frontal timing, however it appears
as though storms may develop in Kansas and push east into the
forecast area by late evening into Sunday morning. Right know the
severe risk is uncertain giving the primary overnight timing of this
system, however with sufficient instability and shear, elevated
overnight strong storms look to be a possibility as the boundary
tracks east. By Sunday morning to mid-day the system track east of
the area. Additional strong to severe storms will be possible on
Sunday, but as of right now it looks as though that would be
primarily east of our forecast area. As with this evenings forecast,
high uncertainty exists, especially with differences in timing
between multiple forecast models. Timing of the front will have
impacts on if storms have a greater severe threat on Saturday night
and Sunday.

Outside of that, the system moves east of the area on Sunday with
the return of northerly flow and cooler temperatures the next few
days. Highs in the 50s are expected for Sunday and Monday after the
passage of the front. Dry weather is also expected through this
time. A warming trend is expected for the mid week with the return
of 60s and 70s and weak mid level ridging. Another wave is expected
to move through the forecast area on Wednesday bringing the return
of shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are developing in central
Kansas early this evening, with more convection expected to
develop farther northeast with time this evening and overnight.
However, latest guidance keeps this convection north of the TAF
sites, so have left any mention of precipitation/thunder out for
the 00z TAFs. Thus, mainly VFR expected through the next 24
hours, with winds the primary aviation concern. Southwest winds
10 to 20 kt with higher gusts should continue through tonight.
Nocturnal low-level jet and boundary-layer inversion developing
near/after 03z should bring a period of LLWS to the TAF sites
overnight (southwesterly of 40-45 kt in the lowest 2000 feet).
After sunrise, southwest winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 35
kt should be expected most of the day. Diurnal cumulus (SCT-BKN)
should develop by late morning or afternoon, with bases mainly
just above MVFR thresholds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...CMS