472
FXUS63 KEAX 060758
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
258 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to Scattered Storms End This Morning

- Additional Isolated/Scattered Storms This Afternoon/Evening, South
  of Interstate 70/Hwy. 50 Severe Storms Not Expected

- Active Week Ahead With Multiple Rounds of Showers/Storms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Amplified mid-level ridge is developing over the desert southwest,
and is still expected to become a 594dam (perhaps even stronger)
high through the upcoming week. Mid and upper-level flow has been
stronger across the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairie Provinces,
with several short-wave disturbances moving through that has
resulted in a surface cyclone moving across the upper Midwest, with
a secondary mid-level vort maxima moving across the lower Missouri
River Valley along with a surface cold front. This has been
producing the scattered thunderstorm activity overnight. The story
of moderate CAPE of whichever parcel path you chose and weak forcing
with little deep layer shear continues to be the story, and hence why
there has not been much in the way of organized robust convection.
The CAMs seem to be initializing this convection okay, but have been
too fast in its simulated dissipation. With the cold front present
and weak lift from the mid-level vort maxima, scattered activity
across Central Missouri may continue into the morning hours. Would
eventually expect there to be a break by mid to late morning once
the mid-level short-wave passes through, and we get a brief period
of subsidence. This should also stall the cold front somewhere over
Central Missouri by the early afternoon hours. However, another
short-wave vort maxima ejects ahead of the ridge axis from the
southwest CONUS this afternoon that should provide another boost to
broad scale lift. The cold front may also still be present just
southeast of the Kansas City metro to around the Columbia/Jefferson
City area. We will see how cloud clover plays out along the cold
front, and how differential heating through the afternoon could play
a role in the strength of convergence. HREF mean MUCAPE values climb
back above 1000 J/kg shortly after diurnal peak heating this
afternoon, with a narrow ribbon of 2000 J/kg immediately ahead of
the cold front on the warm side. This should be enough to generate a
few updrafts through the afternoon and evening, and most CAMs show
development along the leading edge, and gradually pushes
southeastward toward the Ozarks Region through the remainder of the
evening. Deep layer shear is not overly impressive, thus remaining
difficult for updrafts organize. The past few days, boundary layer
lapse rates became fairly steep, along with drier air between 700-
500mb that led to an environment conducive to precipitation loading
and evaporational cooling processes, leading to downburst with
stronger storms. CAM soundings today are not showing as a strong of
a signal for this, and appears to be due to the stronger moisture
advection that overall is not allowing lapse rates to readily
steepen. Stronger storms south of Interstate 70 and Hwy. 50 today
could still produce wind gusts around 40 MPH at times, but the
downburst potential does not appear as prominent today. We will need
to watch areas on the warm side of the thermal boundary though,
should local mixing processes drastically alter the boundary layer,
steeper lapse rates may once reintroduce storms capable of stronger
winds. Once the cold front shifts southeastward into the Ozarks, we
should see a break in shower/storm activity overnight into early
Monday morning.

Monday during the afternoon, deterministic guidance depicts an H5
short-wave moving across the lower Missouri River Valley as an
extension of the a stronger short-wave moving through the upper
Midwest. With the passage of the cold front from Sunday evening
though, we are not seeing any strong surface inflections in most of
the guidance. Depending on how much moisture is left over, if skies
are clear, we may see some instability develop that could generate a
cumulus field, and perhaps a few isolated showers are possible. CAMs
though have not been projecting much activity in our area in the 36-
48 period that covers Monday afternoon, with more of the focus well
south of Missouri where the cold front heads toward the Gulf region.
HREF mean QPF output suggests most activity would struggle to occur
north of Interstate 44. Will need to keep an eye on activity over
Central Nebraska though, as better surface forcing there may lead to
slightly stronger convection that could try to sneak southeastward
by Monday evening, but for now will only maintain slight chance (15%-
24%) for precipitation through Monday evening. Tuesday, another
short-wave moves through. Ascent associated with this mid-level
forcing appears stronger than Monday in current deterministic model
output, and may be enough to initiate a surface response and
pressure falls through the afternoon, along with stronger surface
destabilization. Deep layer shear once again appears to be lacking
with the passage of this short-wave, but we may see a favorable
environment for stronger storms to produce downbursts once again.
Tuesday will largely be mesoscale driven if any kind of severe
threat attempts to materialize. The SPC SWODY3 outlook has placed
our forecast in a marginal risk, highlighting the potential for
multicells to produce a wind gusts.

For the remainder of the week, ensemble suites continue to maintain
at least a 15% to 30% chance for measurable precipitation each day
through next weekend, all associated with weak mid-level
disturbances that eject around the strong high over the desert
southwest. By Friday, some solutions are indicating a stronger short-
wave that breaks down the ridging over the desert southwest, and may
allow a more defined surface cyclone system to move across the
Central CONUS. If this materializes, could finally bring better deep
layer wind shear along with moderate amounts of instability. At this
point though, hard to pinpoint if this means stronger activity for
the Central Plains, or if the better forcing lines up more toward
the Mississippi River Valley. Overall temperatures are still forecast
to be in the mid to upper 80s through most of the week. Some 90s are
possible, though inner-quartile spread for temperatures is still
fairly high beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Cold front is moving across Missouri with isolated
showers/storms developing along it. It is possible for a storm
move over the KC Metro terminals for the first hour or so of
the 06z TAFs. After 07z, the front should clear the KC metro TAF
sites, with isolated development still possible from central
Missouri and eastward. More development is possible east of
Kansas City Sunday afternoon and evening. Ceilings on the
backside of the of the cold front should remain VFR, with winds
generally out of the northwest, these might start to back later
through the afternoon out of the southwest depending, on how
quickly the cold front moves eastward and the next weak system
moves through.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull