257
FXUS63 KEAX 101124
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
524 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shortwave may produce snow in northern Missouri tomorrow night
  into early Sunday morning.

- Below normal temperatures continue through the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Snow continues to move east of the area as of 08Z, as the positively-
tilted trough axis traverses across the southern plains into the
Tennessee River Valley. While the snow should end around 13Z in the
metro, slick driving conditions are in store for the morning
commute, as early morning temperatures will be several degrees below
freezing (mid to upper 20s). The Winter Weather Advisory is still
scheduled to end at 15Z, as the forecast remains on track.

Additionally, HREF ensembles indicates low cloud bases (<1,000 feet)
are projected to linger at least through Saturday late Saturday
morning. Areas south of I-70 have the greatest chance (60% chance or
greater) of experiencing ceilings less than 500 feet in the short
term. The below-normal temperature trend continues today, with highs
in the lower 30s mainly south of I-70 and in the upper 20s north of
I-70.

Saturday night, another shortwave trough traverses through the
northern plains, giving areas north of I-70 a chance for snow.
Forecast soundings show precipitation onset could be as early of 00Z
Sunday (6PM CST Saturday night) in northwestern Missouri. There is
potential for snow accumulations (possibly up to a couple of inches)
in northern Missouri, with uncertainty in the exact location of the
heaviest amounts due to the uncertainty in where snowband may
develop. Deterministic models shows potential snowband setup
anywhere between I-29 and I-35 up toward the Missouri/Iowa border.
Much colder Canadian air follows behind the aforementioned
shortwave. Thus, a stronger cold air advection regime filters across
the region with a northwesterly flow prevailing in the afternoon
hours on Sunday. As a result, temperatures bottom out in the lower
teens for Monday morning. Temperatures will not rise much throughout
the day, with highs in the upper teens and lower 20s to start the
workweek.

Surface high pressure builds into the region by midweek, with
temperatures rebounding through the week. Partly cloudy to mostly
sunny conditions are also expected through next Friday. There is
some parting good news, as it appears temperatures will peak a few
degrees above freezing Thursday afternoon largely due to
southwesterly prevailing winds from the southern plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions over the area as of 06Z will see
cloud bases and visibilities gradually raise as snow progresses
east. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
between 13-15Z. Places south of I-70 will likely experience wintry
conditions through the entirety of the morning hours, based on model
guidance. Northwesterly winds between 5-10 knots continue through
the afternoon, followed by a more westerly shift in the evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
     MOZ021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hayes
AVIATION...Hayes