475
FXUS63 KEAX 101204
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
704 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
  morning...severe weather not expected.

* Above normal temperatures expected this weekend peaking on
  Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
  - Normal this time of the year is upper 60s/low 70s for highs

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

This morning a upper level trough is digging from the Canadian
Plains into the northern Great Lakes. This is forcing a weak
attendant cold front towards the CWA. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are developing out ahead of this front however weak
instability will keep storms of the garden variety. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through the
morning hours as the cold front traverses the CWA. However, by this
afternoon the weak cold front will reside south of the area with a
surface ridge of high pressure quickly building into the area in its
wake. Aloft, mid-level height rises will help temperatures rise into
the mid 70s to lower 80s despite the frontal passage and morning
storms. Tomorrow, a upper level ridge of high pressure over the
Plains today will shift eastward with the ridge axis residing
directly over the area as a surface ridge dominates the area. This
will keep conditions quiet with highs in the lower 70s north to
lower 80s south. Sunday, the upper level ridge will begin to flatten
across the region as a upper level trough quickly moves from the
Pacific Northwest on Saturday into the northern Plains on Sunday.
This will force a cold front into the central Plains Sunday.
Enhanced WAA ahead of this front will push highs into the upper 70s
to upper 80s.

Sunday night into Monday, the upper level trough over the northern
Plains will continue to shift northeast into southern Canada. This
will cause the associated cold front to sag slowly into the area.
Although forcing will be weak, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms (20%-30%) will be possible. Weak CAA and cloud cover
will keep highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s on Monday. Monday
night a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area
drying conditions out. The surface ridge will remain in control
Tuesday providing weak mixing holding highs in the mid 60s to mid
70s despite low amplitude upper level ridging over the region.
Downstream upper level ridging becomes more amplified over the
region Wednesday and Thursday in response to a upper level trough
digging down the west coast into the southwestern CONUS. This will
provide a warming trend with highs in the 70s Wednesday rising into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 704 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A cold front is expected to mov thru the TAF sites swinging
winds from the SW to W around 5-10kts btn 14Z-16Z. Winds will
cont to shift to the NNW/N around 19Z while remaining btn
5-10kts before becmg lgt and vrb aft 23Z-00Z. A band of MVFR
cigs reside behinds the cold front and will move into the
terminals btn 13Z-15Z and persist thru 19Z before scattering
out. Clr skies are expected aft 23Z-00Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73