219
FXUS63 KEAX 010928
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
428 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot and humid conditions expected to return Tuesday.

- Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon into
  Wednesday morning. The main threat will be damaging straight-
  line winds. The strongest storms may produce an isolated hail
  or a tornado or two.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

In the upper levels, there is ridging just to our northwest over
central CONUS. There is a fairly zonal flow over the area with winds
out of the northwest. At the surface, there is a surface high over
the Great Lakes region. As a result, winds are currently out of the
east. Winds are expected to slowly shift to the southeast through
the day. A lingering surface boundary to the south has slowly
drifted north. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along the
boundary with isentropic ascent at 305K and have started to move
east. They are expected to move into the region later this morning.
At this time, no severe weather is expected.

As the surface high continues to move further east moving into
Tuesday, winds will begin to shift to south advecting warmer, more
saturated air. High temperatures for Tuesday are expected to stay
around the low to mid 90s. With increased moisture, dew point
temperatures are anticipated to reach the low to mid 70s. Heat
indices are expected to range from 105-111 degrees F across the
region. A heat advisory will need to be considered for these
conditions.

A potential for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon going into
early Wednesday morning. A surface low and associated frontal
boundary is expected to move through the area with showers and
thunderstorms developing along the boundary. Some storms are
expected to be strong to severe with 40-50 knots of bulk shear, CAPE
values almost reaching 4,000 J/kg, and 70 degree dew points. The
main threat at this time seems to be damaging straight-line winds.
However, the strongest storms may produce isolated events of large
hail and a tornado or two. Uncertainty still exists with the event
being a few days out. For the remainder of the week, the pattern
becomes a more unsettled as several shortwaves are expected to move
through the area. This suggests multiple chances for rain during the
second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions expected to last until around 14Z for the
terminals. Showers over eastern Kansas are expected to move over
the area causing MVFR conditions. MVFR ceilings are expected to
last through the afternoon. Winds will shift to the southeast
and occasionally gust up to 25 mph through the day. VFR
conditions are expected to return late Monday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier