986
FXUS63 KEAX 192023
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
323 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms this morning. Strong to severe storms are
  unlikely with this early activity.

- Another round of storms is likely late this afternoon to evening.
  Strong to severe storms are possible with this activity.

- Widespread and much needed rainfall is likely this weekend with
  multiple rounds of showers and storms likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Expected thunderstorms and showers through early morning but
much more active and on-going into the early afternoon than
anticipated. There was some decent wind downburst signatures
warrantying issuance of severe thunderstorm warning. Received
downed tree reports and with brief power outage in Leavenworth
county area. Main concern today was the length of shower and
thunderstorm activity, as this would limit the redevelopment
that is anticipated later this evening. However, satellite
imagery and radar showing clearing convective activity, this
will allow for plenty of afternoon heating. Temperatures as of 2
PM CDT shows lower 80s in areas of recent storm activity from
KC metro to St Joseph areas, with upper 80s to lower 90s once
elsewhere.

As the afternoon progresses and and warming continues the
combination of the anomalously high moisture and warmer
condition will result in the unstable air mass by the early
evening hours. Again the main concern is the early activity but
current analysis maps shows the still decent SBCAPE, although
the better chances across north-eastern MO. While the main
threat from the the thunderstorm that develop will be damaging
winds and quarter size hail, there is the potential for an
isolated storm to produce tornado, while the likelihood is very
low (<5%). The main time period for development is expected to
still remain 00z-02z across the KC Metro (although 20-30%
probabilities) and northeastern MO 02-06z with better chances
(30-50% probabilities).

Tomorrow looks relatively drier conditions in the day and early
evening with a lull in weather activity until late Friday night
from 06z to 12Z Saturday. Then the weekend is more active with
rounds of precipitation in much needed drought conditions. The
shower/thunderstorm activity moving across the area on Friday
night into Saturday morning have decent confidence (30 to 60%)
across northern areas of KS and MO and with precipitation
chances increasing and spreading across the entire CWA
overnight with the frontal and short wave activity. Another
round of storms looks likely Saturday night into Sunday as a
stronger shortwave beings to move into the Plains. The
probabilities of heavy rainfall continue to increase as both
the NBM and the LREF guidance both show probabilities
accumulated precipitation exceeding 1 inch at 80-100% through
Monday morning. Storm of precipitation from Saturday morning
through Monday morning indicating areas in northern MO of 3 to 4
inches and gradually 1-2 inches further south into central MO.
At this time the the concern for flash flooding threat is
relatively low with the current drought conditions and headwater
flash flood guidance in a 3 to 6 hour period ranges from 3 to 6
inches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Thunderstorms continue to redevelopment along a line between
KSTJ and KMCI. Have VCTS for KSTJ and placed -TSRA for KMCI for
the time period 18z-20z to account for the development. There
may be periodic VIS reduction with TS but confidence (10-20%)
for VIS restrictions for the airports directly and may be brief
IFR conditions. Still anticipate some clearing in the early
afternoon, this will be main contingency on the amount of
heating possible for this afternoon. There is definitely
uncertainty in the models for the afternoon convection but still
anticipating potential severe convection after 00z. The main
concern will be TAFs for exact timing or VIS restriction for
thunderstorms, for now placed VCTS due to this uncertainty from
00z-04z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAK
AVIATION...MAK