991
FXUS63 KEAX 121114
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chance of precipitation (20%-40%) overnight into Monday as a
  cool front moves through the region. Precipitation generally
  looks to be 0.1" or less in most locations. An isolated storm
  may be possible but no severe weather is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Early this morning, on water vapor imagery a upper level trough is
evident moving through the central/northern Rockies. An attendant
cold front reside across the western High Plains. Today this upper
level trough will move out into the northern Plains forcing the cold
front to a western Minnesota to southeast Nebraska to central Kansas
line by this evening. Moderate WAA advection out ahead of the front
coupled with upper level ridging over the area will aid in
temperatures rising well above normal with highs generally in the
80s. Tonight the upper level trough over the northern Plains will
continue to shift northeastward into the Canadian Plains allow the
cold front to sag into the forecast area. This cold front will
remain stalled over the forecast area Sunday night into Monday
night. Models produce the chances (20-40%) for a few light showers
and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm through this period with the
front as its focus with a few weak shortwaves being the trigger.
highs Monday with cloud cover and shower chances will range from the
upper 60s to the northwest to the upper 70s to the southeast.

On Tuesday, the upper level ridge that is over the area today that
gets suppressed south of the area on Monday will look to rebuild over
the area in response to a trough digging south across the western
CONUS. This upper level ridge will then look to remain in control
over the area through the middle of the work week. Conditions should
remain mainly dry although a few shortwaves rounding the ridge will
bring some very low chance PoPs to extreme northern Missouri Tuesday
and Wednesday. A warming trend is also expected through the period
with highs in the upper 60s north to near 80 south on Tuesday but
rising into the mid 70s to mid 80s on Thursday.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive on Friday as a upper
level trough moves from the eastern Rockies out into the Plains
states. Model difference reside in the location and strength of this
trough as the GFS is much stronger and deeper than its EC
counterpart. Consequently the strength of storms is uncertain
however, NBM probabilities produce a 30-50% chance of showers and
storms Friday into Friday night. With the GFS being stronger with
this system it would push a cold front through the area by Saturday
with dry conditions expected whereas the weaker EC solution would
hold the front across the area Saturday continuing precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with bkn high clouds
expected to sct out aft 15Z-16Z. After 23Z...bkn mid lvl clouds
btn 7-10kft are expected to prevail thru the remainder of the
TAF pd. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the SE btn
7-12kts. Aft 15Z-16Z winds will veer to the south and incr to
15-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts. Gusty winds will prevail til
23Z-00Z when winds will diminish to 7-12kts. A cold front will
pass thru the TAF sites btn 05Z-08Z when winds will shift to the
north btn 5-10kts. A few light showers may be poss late in the
TAF pd however, conf is too low for inclusion in the TAF at this
time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73