398
FXUS63 KEAX 102036
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
236 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonally cold/below normal conditions will continue tonight and
  into Tuesday morning
  - Overnight lows occur around/just after midnight, low to mid 20s
  - Increasing southerly winds slowly up temps remainder of overnight

* Temperatures rebound in earnest daytime Tuesday and through
  remainder of the week.
  - Tue-Thur - Highs in the mid 50s to 60s
  - Fri/Sat - Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s

* Next chance for appreciable precipitation during the weekend,
  currently 30-50%+

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

How many people broke out the winter coat this morning? No shame if
you did... as morning lows tended to drop into the upper teens in
rural areas while urban areas tended to stay a little warmer in the
lower 20s. Coupled with a bit of wind, wind chills dipped toward
upper single digits and pre-teens at times. The large parent
trough/cut-off mid-upper low responsible for the Arctic airmass
outbreak continued to gradually shift eastward today, allowing for
general cold and uncomfortable conditions to ease. While there was
not much warm up (only mid 30s to low 40s highs), surface high
pressure influence kept winds notably lighter with more widespread
and sustained sunshine across the region.

More rapid and substantial sensible weather changes will begin
overnight tonight as aforementioned mid-upper trough/cutoff low and
surface high drift E and SE respectively. Aside from the general
return of southerly winds with the departing surface high, broad
troughing dropping into/through the Northern Plains will increase
surface pressure gradient and allow strong WAA to develop overnight.
This will likely result in calendar day Tuesday lows around/just a
bit after midnight as temperatures are poised to gradually rise the
remainder of the overnight with expected 10 to 15+ mph southerly
winds and some accompanying gusts into the 20s mph. In conjunction
with mid level height rises and 850mb temps surging back into the
double digits deg C above zero (which are currently a handful deg C
below zero), Tuesday will see highs jump back into the mid 50s
(east) to low to mid 60s (west).

This general story continues through the remainder of the work week
as the large scale pattern gradually shifts from an elongated
western ridge - eastern tough pattern. Expect temperatures to rise a
couple/few degrees each day, peaking in the Friday/Saturday time
frame when peak ridging should be overhead. So, highs in the 60s
Wednesday working their way up into the 70s by Friday/Saturday. NBM
spreads continue to exhibit fairly tight spreads during this time
frame with 25th/75th percentile spreads for MaxT generally
around/less than 5 deg F across the area. Confidence in the forecast
tends to break down later Saturday onward...

By the weekend the next weather maker, a deep western mid-upper
trough to cutoff low, begins to move through the Intermountain West
and into the Plains. This remains our next best opportunity for
appreciable precipitation, but confidence remains limited, if not a
bit degraded from previous, as synoptic models and their ensembles
continue to grapple with how this feature will evolve. Current (12z)
guidance now is attempting to coalesce around a deeper southward
dive and cutoff low solution, which tends to result in a slower
eastward progressing and more variability in the cutoff lows path.
Perusing ensembles, the general PoP looks to remain around 30-50%
and centered more around late Saturday through Sunday. Deterministic
depictions too lessen convective chances with favored path tending
to place the area on the cool/north side. Takeaway here is simply
that this window is the next opportunity for accumulating
precipitation, but with a good degree uncertainty lingering.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions to prevail across all sites through the TAF
period. Primary item of note will be shifting winds and return
of gusty conditions. Initial winds will remain out of the NW,
with gradual CCW shifting through the day and settling out of
the S/SSW by 06z. Tightening surface pressure gradient overnight
will allow winds to pick up prior to 12z, with potential for
wind speeds to be up to around 15g25kts at times.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis