462
FXUS63 KEAX 112343
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Severe Storm Threat Today/Tonight
  - Timing: Mid-afternoon into evening
  - Main Threat: Strong, Damaging Winds
  - Secondary Threats: Large hail, heavy rainfall, possible tornado

* Uncomfortable heat/humidity eases after today

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

With previous evening/night storms having remained almost
exclusively northward and westward of the area, that has allowed
environment over much of Missouri to prime itself for potential
strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. Surface analysis
early this afternoon places the some what broad and weak surface low
over NW Missouri with associated warm front into southern Iowa and
trailing cold front just having entered far NW Missouri and NE
Kansas. Primarily non-severe elevated convection has been ongoing
northward into Iowa and eastern Nebraska helping further suggest the
placement of the surface warm front. Within the warm sector, much of
Missouri, low level moisture has increased in response to breezy
(gusting up to around 30 mph) with many AWOS/ASOS depicting dew
points in the low to mid 70s. This includes some moisture pooling,
dew points around or greater than 75, over southern Iowa/northern
Missouri in the vicinity of the warm front.

So, what can/might we expect the remainder of the day? Great
question. Glad you asked. In a general sense we will certainly see
storms out ahead of and along the respective warm and cold fronts as
they translate across the state.

The first area to discuss will be north-central to northeast
Missouri. This area will very likely be behind the warm front,
leaving more in the open warm sector. This tends to reduce the
tornadic threat, but does not completely eliminate. Point sounds in
that area do suggest some okay clockwise curvature, but the
magnitude/strength of the low level, let alone deep layer, shear is
not substantial. In fact, it is largely marginal with values around
20-25kts and 30-35 kts in the 0-3km and 0-6km depths. And those
values could be generous. LCLs tend to be marginal as well. Enough
CAM runs have shown hints of UH tracks near the Iowa-Missouri border
though to completely ignore the threat. Which too is why after
coordination with SPC, northern tier of Missouri counties are in a
Tornado Watch. Hail too would become a threat with any organization
of storms, allowing increased growth/residence time. Otherwise, high
melting levels, >14kft, and unlikely prolonged residence times
likely limit severe/damaging hail. Wind should be the primary threat
with marginal venting/upper storm winds (more prone to collapse on
oneself) and ample low and mid level dry air for at least initial
storms to tap into/enhance down drafts. Any organized storms further
enhance the wind risk. As time progresses, storms should grow
upscale to multi-cell/MCS and transition threat to almost
exclusively wind.

Next area to discus will be areas along the front, to the SW of the
north-central/northeast Missouri area. This has been a little harder
to pinpoint initiation time and evolution. As of early afternoon,
there has been a couple storms initiating, but struggling to rapidly
grow. Rapid intensification/growth "may" yet hold off until 3pm or
later. Regardless, environment along and ahead of the front will be
quite unstable with current RAP analysis showing >3000 J/kg MLCAPE
and may approach 3500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE along the front with any
moisture pooling. Very unstable and thick CAPE profiles with some of
the present mid-level cooling as the mid-level shortwave approaches.
Wind profiles are less impressive away from the north/northeast,
tending to be more directonally uniform and less overall effective
shear to tap into, broadly < 30kts. Tornadic and hail threat is
generally very low here with what should be unorganized storms, plus
potentially rapid upscale growth along the front. Can`t rule out
brief marginally severe hail with the strongest/deepest of updrafts.
QLCS tor threat appears fairly unlikely as well with frontal
orientation tending to line up more parallel to low/mid level winds,
but a bowed segment could pose a risk as that would alter
orientation for portions of the line/bow. Otherwise strong/damaging
winds remain the primary risk with the ample low-mid level dry air
and collapsing updrafts. May very well yield multiple >70 mph wind
gusts with these storms, especially deep updrafts that begin to
collapse within this environment. Peak wind gust potential may wane
with a transition to linear/QLCS, largely due to steering wind
profiles not as orthogonal as one would want to maintain a balanced
cold pool/UDCZ. A hydrologic threat gets introduced here as well
with mentions of the more parallel steering flow, in conjunction
with climatologically highly elevated PWats, >2". CAMs
(HREF/HRRR/etc) have persistently showed pockets of 3-4"+, which may
yield flooding concerns, especially in any urban areas. Rural,
agriculture areas may be able to absorb more as they remain near
peak grown periods. Depictions have not been widespread though,
suggesting more isolated flooding threat versus widespread. While no
Severe Watch as of this writing, there will likely be one within the
next couple of hours.

Taking into account all of the above, the SPC Enhanced/Slight Risk
and WPC ERO Slight Risk areas are well deserved and in appropriate
locations. As front progresses SE through the evening, so too
will the severe threat as storms work over local air mass and
lose diurnal support.

Quickly into the future, the generally slow/gradual frontal passage
will get a boost from a northern stream shortwave trough as it
builds in an associated surface high into the Central High Plains.
This should push it through the CWA by Saturday evening, broadly
limiting strong/severe potential Saturday. May see some lingering
showers near/post frontal, and tends to align with SPC Day 2
Marginal that is largely in the LSX/SGF CWAs. Otherwise, expect a
much cooler and more comfortable day than today and recent days.
Highs generally in the low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.
Discrepancy in pattern evolution into next week brings uncertainty
in additional precipitation opportunities, but do not look
strong/severe in nature either way as synoptic models grapple with a
weak mid-upper low/shortwave that may/may not develop over the
Southern Plains and drift NE late weekend into early work week.
Predominant mid-upper level westerlies overhead remain through much
of the week, allow for multiple possible shortwaves and
precipitation opportunities. This results in prolonged lower end
PoPs in the extended forecast, which surely will not play out as
such, but limited confidence to make any meaningful changes. Can
generally expect temperatures to inch back warmer through this time
frame too, but largely seasonable in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Scattered to broken line of thunderstorms currently working
through the metro. Areas to the north and west should remain
convection free through the evening. Storms are expected to
become better organized east of the metro, with the potential
for gusty winds with stronger storms. Could see some MVFR
stratus develop between 12-15Z Satuday morning, but should thin
and scatter out towards mid-day. Light northwest winds should
prevail behind the front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...BT