750
FXUS63 KEAX 011724
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fall-like conditions today behind the cold front.

- Near elevated to elevated fire weather conditions this
  afternoon due to low humidity and breezy northerly winds.

- Temperatures rebound tomorrow and especially on Thursday,
  which should feature high temperatures in the mid 80s for most
  locations.

- No precipitation is expected through at least the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Radar imagery and surface observations shows the cold front has
completely moved through the region as of around 3:30 this
morning. Winds have turned north northwesterly behind the front, and
have increased, with gusts up to 25 mph. October greets us with
a beautiful fall weather day, with high temperatures ranging
from the upper 60s to lower 70s and very low humidity. Near
elevated to elevated fire weather conditions are possible this
afternoon as RH values drop into the 20 to 30 percent range, but
winds should begin to relax as RH values drop to near 30
percent, and local RAWS sites show minimum mid afternoon 10 hour
fuel moisture only getting down to around 9 to 10 percent, so
this should keep fire weather concerns tempered.

Surface high pressure slides directly overhead by this evening,
with winds becoming near calm. Light winds paired with mostly
clear skies and low dew points will allow for strong radiational
cooling, and overnight low temperatures tonight into tomorrow
morning should drop into the low to mid 40s (upper 40s across
the urban heat island core of Kansas City).

Temperatures begin to rebound on Wednesday, and increase even
more on Thursday into the mid to upper 80s, as mid level flow
becomes more zonal with higher heights and large positive 850
mb temperature anomalies overspreading the region from the west
southwest as we remain just south of the longwave troughing
associated with a mid level low centered over Hudson Bay.

By Thursday night, models project the aforementioned troughing
across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest advances a little
further south, sending another cold front through the region.
This should knock high temperatures down several degrees for
Friday afternoon. However, temperatures look to quickly rebound
once again by Saturday as troughing exits to the east and
southerly flow returns, although at this time there remains a
fairly large spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles
for MaxT at MCI (80 and 87, respectively).

Model guidance suggests yet another trough descending out of
Canada and into the central CONUS Saturday night into Sunday
morning, which would send another cold front through the region
sometime Sunday morning, bring cooler temperatures for Sunday
and especially Monday. However, uncertainty remains in regards
to just how much cooler we may get, as the NBM 25th and 75th
percentiles for MaxT at MCI are 74 and 83 degrees, respectively,
on Sunday and 68 and 77 degrees, respectively, on Monday.
Guidance continues to be consistent in keeping our region dry
through through the weekend and even into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Gusty northerly winds expected for the remainder of the
afternoon, should start to diminish around sunset. High pressure
will keep ceilings VFR. Will continue to monitor for fog
overnight, but there should be enough momentum even early
Wednesday to limit fog development.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Krull