995
FXUS63 KEAX 220443
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1043 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overcast Skies, Rain Continues, Patchy Fog

- Clearer and Cooler Saturday Afternoon

- Precipitation Returns Late Sunday, Continues Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Axis of H5 short-wave trough is moving across Central Kansas this
afternoon with the center of the associated surface cyclone entering
the Ozarks region. Warm frontal boundary has traveled and stalled
right around the Interstate 70 corridor. H5 jet max overhead is
helping to provide extra lift over an area of broad isentropic
ascent, and plenty of moisture has wrapped around to the backside of
the low. The warm front may try to travel northward to around Hwy.
36, but current model solutions that have it surging may be
overestimating its final propagation. As we move into the evening,
vort maxima associated with the H5 short-wave trough shifts toward
Central Missouri and pushes the surface cyclone east-southeast. This
will eventually push the thermal boundary back southward as a warm
front, and this will continue through the evening. As of 20z,
satellite imagery showed clearer skies south and southeast of the
Kansas City Metro and for the Missouri Ozarks Region, where a weak
instability axis has developed. A few pop up thunderstorms have
developed as seen on the KSGF WSR-88D from St. Clair County MO to
Maries/Osasge County MO. As the boundary starts to move south and
low-level convergence increases, a few isolated non-severe
thunderstorms could occur from southeast Bates toward the
Cooper/Pettis County line through the remainder of the afternoon,
though the loss of insolation will quickly eliminate the
instability. For areas north of Hwy. 50, additional shower
development and misty conditions should be expected with lift
increasing as the front moves east-southeast again. Rainfall rates
will likely be lighter as this moves south though, as the mid-level
lift source will move east is progged to not align with the surface
thermal boundary. Most CAMs suggest that this boundary should move
out of the forecast between the 04-05z timeframe. The 1-hr mean QPF
output from the HREF also favors a 04-05z timeframe for the ending
of precipitation. Heading into the overnight hours, the main
question becomes how long does it take for the drier air to arrive
behind the cold front. It is possible that if we see cold air move
in before the drier airmass further to the northwest moves, we may
see patchy fog particularly in our southeast and then along the Hwy.
63 corridor into Saturday morning. However if the drier air surges,
we may see rapidly increase dewpoint depression temperatures that
should eliminate most of the mist and fog. Lingering moisture
between 800-700mb is possible with the amount of water vapor that
will continue wrap around this system, therefore Saturday morning
will start with overcast skies, and may still be capable of
producing some sprinkles or drizzle.

By late Saturday morning and early afternoon, the front should be
completely out of Missouri and toward the Tennessee Valley. Another
deep trough sets up over the southwest CONUS but helps to amplify an
H5 ridge axis across the Plains by Saturday afternoon. The AVA
regime extends eastward into the lower Missouri River Valley and
develops a surface anticyclone that should gradually clear skies out
by late Saturday afternoon leading to mild weather conditions across
much of the region. Sunday, trough over the desert southwest
receives a kick and starts to acquire a slight negative tilt as it
lifts out of the Four Corners Region. H5 ridge axis passes through
central Missouri as the surface anticyclone heads for the Ohio River
Valley. Low-level flow begins to turn southerly on the backside of
the high. Stronger dCVA starts across the Rockies and Front Range
and will provide enough lift to generate another surface cyclone,
which will help to reinforce southerly flow from the Plains into the
middle Mississippi River Valley by Sunday afternoon. This will start
another period of moisture transport back into the region, and will
likely see increasing cloud cover. Despite WAA, may only see a
modest boost temperatures on Sunday. It will take some time for the
column to saturate again. Therefore, rainfall is expected to hold
off until very late Sunday, and may even hold off until the early
hours of Monday morning. GEFS and other ensemble suites show
increasing probabilities for measurable rain after 06z Monday
morning, as this is also when the primary moisture axis passes
through along with the main trough axis driving most of the system
across the region. Deterministic GFS depicts some MUCAPE developing
within the warm sector of this system though does not climb much
above 300 J/kg. This could be just enough to generate some rumbles
of thunder within rain the activity across the area. While there
will be decent shear present, overall thermodynamic profiles are
lackluster. Additional rainfall will be welcomed once again to help
alleviate drought conditions the region has experienced this Fall.
Tuesday morning, cyclone passes to the east with Polar Cold Front
moving southeastward out of the Northern Plains. There may be some
lingering precipitation activity into Tuesday depending on how much
moisture wraps around this system, but current ensemble suites show
a downward trend in probabilities for measurable precipitation
starting early Tuesday morning. Much colder and drier air pours into
the area by late Tuesday, and temperatures into Wednesday morning
drop below 30 degrees. However, most of the lift for precipitation
will be well east, and the colder air will also be accompanied dry
air. Therefore, no rain-snow or wintry mixes are forecasts in the
area with the late Sunday through Tuesday system. The middle of next
week will be cooler and drier as cut-off low sinks into the western
Great Lakes Region but helps to force the surface anticyclone with
cold dry air into the lower Missouri River Valley. Most of the
forcing with this system misses us to the north, keeping us dry. It
may be a bit breezy.

Toward the end of next week for the extended holiday weekend, still
expecting seasonably cool temperatures. Deep trough is progged over
the Central Great Lakes, but we may see a lobe of vorticity wrap
around the back side and provide some lift Friday into Saturday of
next weekend. This leaves low-end probabilities for very light
precipitation. Some models indicate a rain-snow or other wintry mix
possible, but no substantial accumulations of anything frozen in
eastern Kansas or anywhere in Missouri are currently forecast for
the end of next week and the holiday travel period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low ceilings are moving finally starting to push south and
within an hour or two of forecast issuance, all sites are very
likely (>95%) to be VFR with mid and high level clouds. VFR
conditions then very likely (>95%) prevail through the remainder
of the forecast. Winds will be light through the forecast but
vary from the north initially, becoming westerly or
southwesterly tomorrow late morning to afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...CDB