238
FXUS63 KEAX 300556
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1256 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions through the next seven days.

- Cold front traverses the area Monday night, bringing
  temperatures back to near-normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Quiet weather continues to be the story for our area in the short
term. In the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere, a pesky closed
low consisting of extra-tropical remnants of Helene continues to
meander through the Ohio River Valley this afternoon, per latest GFS
guidance. With the low pressure system east of the County Warning
Area (CWA) having substantial vertical continuity, the associated
lower-level low pressure is centered over central Tennessee, giving
prevailing winds an northeasterly component through the overnight
hours. Across the region, tonight`s lows remain a few degrees above
average, bottoming out in the mid to upper 50s in most areas.
Minimum temperatures appear to be slightly higher in and around more
urban areas, with lows rounding out in the lower 60s for places
within the Kansas City metro.

Winds are not expected to be too gusty during the late afternoon
hours today, as the low-level cyclone continues to progress toward
the east coast. As it moves further away from the ridging associated
with a high pressure system in the western CONUS, the pressure
gradient producing breezy conditions the last few days won`t be as
strong. Thus, wind gusts will likely stay below a 15-knot threshold
after 21Z, while gradually diminishing in magnitude closer toward
sunset as diurnal mixing ceases.

Above-normal temperatures are forecast for Monday, as the summertime
ridging originating from the desert southwest is able to influence
the overall weather pattern for our area. Ensuing southerly flow
alongside warm air advection in conjunction with this high pressure
will facilitate Monday afternoon`s high temperatures being in the
lower to mid 80s throughout the forecast area. For some areas, this
would be 10-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Though
these temperatures peaks are very warm, afternoon dew point
depressions will range between 20-25 degrees, so ambient conditions
will feel light as opposed to oppressive.

As robust troughing centered in the central Canadian plains lowers
geopotential heights in the central CONUS during the afternoon hours
on Monday, an associated cold front out ahead of the low will
progress across our area Monday night. Probabilities of
precipitation (PoPs) are minimal (0% chances), as the forecast
indicates essentially no chance of rain showers let alone convective
weather with this frontal passage, so dry conditions shall prevail
for the time being. The advection of a colder air mass behind the
front through the region in tandem with a surface high influencing
the synoptic regime will yield near to slightly below-normal
afternoon temperatures on Tuesday. Highs will be in the lower 70s
for places south of I-70 with slightly cooler highs (upper 60s) for
places north of I-70.

Glancing at the forecast later this week, a return to above-average
temperatures is expected on Wednesday followed by a weak low pushing
through the area during the evening hours on Thursday, keeping
Friday`s highs near-normal for northern/central portions of the
forecast area. So overall, pleasant weather will continue through
the workweek with a noteworthy taste of fall on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the period under
generally clear skies, although some patchy fog may be possible
around sunrise this morning. Winds will be light and variable
overnight, becoming generally southerly by late Monday morning
and remaining light (below 10 knots).


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hayes
AVIATION...BMW