201
FXUS63 KEAX 041118
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for rain as the pattern remains active through
  Sunday...thunderstorms possible tonight south of I-70.

- Rain/snow mix possible Saturday night into Sunday morning

- Near-freezing morning temperatures expected Sunday through
  Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

There are two main features of interest in the short term. The first
is upper level trough over the central and southern Rockies with a
closed low in the base of the trough over the southwestern CONUS. The
second is a stalled frontal boundary over southern Arkansas into
southeastern Oklahoma. Several lead shortwaves will eject out from
the upper level trough that will ride on upper level southwest flow
into the local area. This will bring showers (70-100%) into the area
today and keep temperatures cool with highs in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Late this afternoon into this evening a southerly LLJ
will override the surface boundary that will lift its way into
northern Arkansas during the day today and nose into the local area.
With 500-700J/Kg of MUCAPE to work with across the southern CWA, sub-
severe thunderstorms will be possible here otherwise showers will be
expected tonight. Showers will continue into Saturday as the slow
moving closed upper low will move from the southwestern CONUS into
the northern Panhandle of Texas. Lead upper level shortwaves will
continue to eject towards the area enhanced by a 30-40kt
southwesterly LLJ nosing into the southern CWA where rain chances
are more likely (40-60%). A brief period of dry weather may be
possible late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as surface
boundary across Arkansas pushes southeastward. However, Saturday
night the upper level trough over the Texas Panhandle will become a
more progressive open wave that will move through the southern
Plains and into the local area by Sunday morning providing yet
another chance for light precipitation (with greater chances again
across the southern CWA). With lows bottoming out in the low to mid
30s rain may mix with or change over to snow however no accumulation
is expected. By late Sunday afternoon/evening the upper level trough
will push east of the area bring shower chances to an end. With
cloudy and rainy conditions expected through the weekend,
temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs on Saturday
again in the upper 40s to lower 50s and upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday.

Quiet yet cool conditions will begin next work week as a surface
ridge of high pressure will build into the area Sunday night and
remain in control during the day Monday. Morning lows on morning
will hover near freezing in the low to mid 30s so tender vegetation
may need to be protected. Monday, mostly sunny skies will aid in
highs rising into the mid 50s to lower 60s despite weak mixing.
There will be the potential for another freeze Tuesday morning
depending on how quickly the surface ridge shifts eastward. The EC
keeps the ridge over the area through Tuesday morning whereas the
GFS moves it eastward Monday night with WAA getting underway in its
wake providing a warmer solution. Consequently, the temperature
spread for Tuesday is great as well with the GFS (60s) being 10 to
15 degrees warmer than its EC (50s) counterpart. Both models do
however bring a upper level shortwave trough through the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday providing the next chance for showers.
Downslope westerly flow will warm temperatures up Wednesday and
Thursday with highs mid 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday before rising
into the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday. Weak shortwaves will
continue to provide slight chance (15-25%) PoPs through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Light rain with lgt fog reducing vis to 4SM-5SM will move into
the TAF sites shortly after TAF issuance and impact the
terminals thru 04Z-05Z. Cigs will begin the TAF pd VFR however,
MVFR cigs are expected to move into the terminals btn 14Z-16Z
and will further sink into IFR cat aft 17Z-18Z and remain IFR
thru the remainder of this TAF cycle. Winds will be out of the
ENE at 7-12kts thru 17Z-18Z when they will back to the NE and
increase to 10-15kts. By 00Z winds will become northerly btn
10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73