163
FXUS63 KEAX 301922
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
222 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorms with
  damaging wind gusts to 60 MPH this afternoon into early
  evening.

- Hot and humid conditions returning for the July 4th Holiday
  Weekend. Highs in the lower 90s F and max heat index values
  around 100 F.

- 20 to 30% Scattered thunderstorm chances on July 4th.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Will focus primarily on the near term as the environment has
been rapidly evolving over the past hour. 18Z surface analysis
suggests a frontal boundary has settled across the region, from
just north of the Kansas border to west-central Missouri and
northeast toward Illinois. Over the past hour a fine line has
resolved on KEAX west of the KS/MO border, this could be in
response to a secondary mid- level short wave trough dropping
east-southeast toward the region. This boundary has spurred the
ongoing convection across northwestern Missouri and beginning to
kick off convection farther south, toward the KC Metro Area.

Although not much recovery was realized post this morning`s
convection, enough boundary layer moisture remains and enough peak
heating has been realized for around 900 to 1200 J/Kg of SBCAPE.
Paired with a modest shear environment, 0-6km bulk shear of ~30kts,
a few organized updrafts could hold on as they develop on the
eastward advance of the surface boundary. As this secondary boundary
moves east, it will be interesting to see how it interacts with the
analyzed surface cold front mentioned above. Performance from the
CAMs has been rather poor, which is not uncommon with post MCS
environments with multiple outflow boundaries hanging on, but it
latest runs from the HRRR, HREF, RAP, etc, although not initiating
convection far enough west, do increase convection as ongoing storms
move east, toward central Missouri later this afternoon. Forecast
soundings suggest rather skinny cape profiles and noticeable temp-dpt
spreads through the boundary layer. This combined with limited
updraft/downdraft separation from the modest shear environment, wind
gusts will be the primary hazard. Most will likely remain sub-
severe, 40 to 50 mph, but a few could result in gusts near 60 mph.

Precipitation will gradually end through sunset, exiting east
through the late evening hours. Broad ridging will set up over the
plains to the Rockies into Tuesday, with a deepening H500 trough off
the California Coast. Temperatures will be seasonable, upper 80s for
highs through mid-week, as northwest flow aloft maintains. Into
Thursday, the ridge axis will sharpen from the Gulf Coast into the
northern Plains in response to the western trough advancing and a
deepening trough over Hudson Bay. This will increase WAA and push
temps back above normal, with afternoon highs in the lower 90s with
max heat index values around 100 by July 4th and the weekend.

Speaking of July 4th, it would not be independence day in the KC
Region, or Missouri and Kansas in general, if there wasn`t a chance
for scattered showers and storms. Along with the hot and humid
conditions, weak forcing for ascent will be prevalent across the
region, providing focus for scattered showers and storms July 4th
morning and through Saturday. As of now, it does not look like July
4th will be a wash, but a few scattered storms can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Morning showers have moved east and northeast of area terminals
and ceilings have continued to improve back to VFR conditions.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all
four TAF sites, with greatest chances for afternoon
precipitation south and southeast of the sites. Variable winds
at the start, will settle back to a northwesterly direction by
mid-afternoon, persisting through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Kurtz