125
FXUS63 KEAX 111753
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1253 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms remain possible this morning and through
  the afternoon into the evening.

- Heavy rainfall remains possible this morning and through the
  afternoon into the evening.

- Drier conditions and warming temperatures are likely by mid
  to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Broad mid/upper level troughing is over the Plains with an
embedded shortwave in eastern CO moving into western KS today.
This mid/upper level forcing coupled with a stalled out front
and a strengthening LLJ is helping to propel and maintain an MCS
with two embedded MCVs coming out of CO and into western KS this
morning. With PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9 heavy downpours and flooding
remains possible. Models however, are really struggling with the
progression of this MCS which is resulting in a fairly low
confidence forecast going forward today. But, the latest HRRR
and ARW seem to be latching on to the ongoing convection and
could be the best solutions going forward right now. Given that
and that present environment, the parent MCS looks like it will
die before it gets to western MO while one or both of the MCVs
may barely survive into the daytime hours. Then this MCV could
encounter 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and about 20-30 kts of
0-6km bulk shear this afternoon which could re-strengthen the
MVC as it moves through the forecast area. PWATs remain high
today and so heavy downpours remain possible.

Tuesday the general trof pattern aloft continues to shift east
and with the stalled front still present, more showers and
storms are expected throughout the day (30-50% chance). Once the
front dissolves though and ridging starts to take its place,
things start to dry out by mid to late week along with warming
temperatures heading into the weekend. Heat indices are once
again pushing 100 degrees by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR conditions are generally anticipated through the period, but
a brief period of MVFR CIGs are possible this early afternoon.
Isolated showers and storms are probable this afternoon, so have
maintained a PROB30 group for -TSRA from 20z to 0z (19z to 01z
at STJ). If a stronger storm impacts one of the terminals, it
may be capable of producing some strong wind gusts. Additional
convection may be possible late tonight, but this would likely
remain east of the terminals. Easterly winds around 8 to 10
knots this afternoon should become light and variable by later
this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...BMW