061
FXUS63 KEAX 092323
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
523 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Stratus and light rain/drizzle continue to exit the CWA this
  afternoon, giving way to clear skies

* Quiet conditions much of rest of forecast, one chance for rain
  - Tuesday overnight into Wednesday, showers/iso thunder

* Temperatures generally a couple/few degrees above normal
  - Highs upper 50s to 60s
  - Lows mid 30s to 40s

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Not difficult to see the regional weather maker on any number of
satellite products, the cutoff low pressure system centered near the
western/central Nebraska-Kansas border. Visible and water vapor
satellite products drive home the wound up nature of the system with
a pronounced dry slot across E Kansas up into SE Nebraska wrapping
around its core. Warm conveyor belt out ahead of the dry slot gave
the area its dreary conditions overnight last night into today,
including periods of drizzle lingering after the appreciable rain
pushed off to the E/NE this morning. Fortunately, as of early this
afternoon the dry/clear slot has begun to work into/through portions
of the western CWA. Unfortunately, given the trajectories, clearing
will be more gradual through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Winds will continue out of the S around 10 mph with
occasional gusts to around 20 mph.

While much of the CWA should see ample sunshine Sunday, upper low
track, NE across Nebraska/Iowa, may keep some degree of cloud cover
over NW/N portions of the CWA through Sunday before more substantial
high pressure influences move in. Any measurable precipitation
should remain north into Iowa.

Early to mid week will see degree of upper level ridging move across
the central CONUS in conjunction with large surface over over the
Northern Plains. Modest 850mb temps, for this time of the year,
around 8 to 10 deg C will help allow temps reach into the mid and
upper 60s, possibly touching 70 Monday with peak ridging overhead. A
few degrees cooler Tuesday onward with ridge passage and 850mb temps
easing. Next opportunity for rain will be Wednesday/Thursday time
frame as progressive longwave trough moves across central CONUS.
Synoptic guidance varies in passage currently, with GFS/GEFS quicker
than the Euro and its ensemble. Regardless, nothing terribly
exciting in depictions, with plenty of dry air in place ahead of it,
modest moisture return, and poor lapse rates/little to no CAPE. Toss
on top of that strongest lift may be displaced northward some and
the result is modest PoPs and potential QPF. With some of the timing
uncertainty and dry air, do not have issue with PoPs in the 30s
percent, nor QPF only around a tenth to quarter inch.

Late week into next weekend will see dry conditions and a more
notable upper ridge vs early week. As such, potential for
temperatures to top out in the upper 60s to low-mid 70s by next
Saturday with guidance suggesting double digit deg C 850mb temps.
That would be upwards of 15+ degrees F above normal for mid-
November.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Front has cleared the area with drier air moving in. This will
keep skies mostly clear through the evening. The back end of
the low will move through overnight and bring high cloud cover
to most of the area. A few lower clouds are possible for
northwest and northern Missouri, but coverage should not create
low ceilings. These may clip STJ, but the KC metro terminals
are expected to miss most of the lower-level clouds overnight.
Winds gradually shift through Sunday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Krull