777
FXUS63 KEAX 111138
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dense fog advisory in affect this morning thru 10AM .

* Warm temperatures through the weekend with dry conditions.

* Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible Sunday
  night into Monday as next cold front moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Early this morning, areas of dense fog has develop over much of
central Missouri where rain fell yesterday morning and where have
skies have cleared out overnight. Further west, across extreme
western Missouri and eastern Kansas a broken high cirrus shield is
keeping fog at bay. Fog expected to persist thru mid-morning before
burning off. Otherwise, the area will remain under control of
surface ridge today while height rising are expected as a upper
level ridge axis moves directly over the area. This will allow highs
to rise into the lower 70s to lower 80s. The upper level ridge will
continue to remain in control over the area on Sunday while a upper
level trough moves from the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains. This will force an attendant cold front into the Plains.
Enhanced WAA ahead of the front will help drive highs well above
normal with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Sunday night the
upper level trough across the northern Plains will continue to move
northeast into the Canadian Plains which will cause the upper
level ridge over the area to be suppressed southward into the
lower Mississippi River Valley, it will also allow the cold front
across the Plains to sag into the forecast area. Sunday night into
Monday as the front slowly sags across the CWA, a few upper level
shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge south of the area will
allow a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop. Cloud
cover and rain chances will hold highs in the 70s on Monday. Monday
night a surface ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the
region from the northern Plains.

Model differences in the mid-range forecast reside around how deep a
upper level trough digs down the west coast and how amplified the
resultant upstream ridging over the central CONUS becomes in the
Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. The GFS is weaker with the ridge
over the central CONUS which would allow shortwaves rounding the
ridge to bring low-end precipitation chances to the northern portion
of the forecast area. The EC demonstrates a more amplified ridge
which would keep the area dry through the midweek period. Either
solution would produce a warming trend. Forecast highs for Tuesday
will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s but will rise into low 70s to
lower 80s by Thursday. Model differences continue through Friday as
both the EC and GFS eject the previously mentioned west coast trough
out into the Plains. The GFS is much deeper and stronger with this
trough than the EC. Both model solutions would produce showers
Friday however, the GFS would push a stronger cold front through the
area which could produce greater convergence for perhaps some
stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Light fog will impact the TAF sites (except MKC) thru 14Z
reducing vis to 3SM-5SM. Otrw...conds will remain VFR with sct-
bkn high clouds thru the pd. Winds will be lgt and vrb thru
15Z-16Z aft which they will be out of the SE btn 7-12kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-030>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73