021
FXUS63 KEAX 120837
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
337 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue peaking in the mid to
  upper 80s Wed & Thu.

- Chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms across
  central MO. No severe storms anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Another warm and pleasant day is in store for the region as ridging
continues to dominate the forecast. That said, Satellite imagery
combined with 500mb analysis is showing the ridge side of the Rex
block slowly being absorbed into the more dominant flow to the
north. Satellite imagery also show two large scale systems working
their way toward the Pacific coast which has encouraged a low which
currently sits along the Louisiana Gulf Coast to migrate slowly
northward. As it does so, moisture transports into the region. A
greater magnitude of this moisture flows in at upper levels which
manifests itself as cloud cover enveloping the region. Normally,
this would work to lower high temperatures; however, antecedent warm
air advection will likely counteract and shading from the clouds.
This maintains highs in the 80s today across the area. The potential
for showers and isolated thunderstorms remains; however, CAM
guidance is far less optimistic about the formation of showers and
thunderstorms. This makes sense as convective parameters remain
rather meager. CAM guidance also is not as thrilled about upper
level CVA around the north and west sides of the low which were
going to act as the primary lifting mechanism. Deterministic models
such as the GFS and ECMWF are much more optimistic about
precipitation chances spreading those possibilities all the way west
to the I-35 corridor. Given the current satellite picture and the
higher likelihood of drier air to the west counteracting the westward
moisture transport, it is more likely that moisture will not advect
as far west and rain chances will likely be concentrated along and
east of the US-65 corridor. If moisture is able to build further
west then chances for rain increase. Regardless coverage is expected
to be fairly sparse and convective parameters are rather meager,
specifically instability and forcing. There is just enough
directional shear in the environment to develop an isolated
thunderstorm, but these would be more pulse like in nature.

The warming temperature trend continues with temperatures expected to
peak midweek. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s close to 90
degrees. Recent ensemble guidance has become less optimistic that
temperatures will reach 90F with the NBM and the long range ensemble
(LREF) showing 40 and 10 percent chances of reaching at least 90F
respectively. These chances are likely due to two primary factors:
1) The exit region of the midlevel jet ejects into central KS vs
eastern KS, and 2) 850mb flow over our region still has a small
easterly component which lowers the magnitude of WAA into the
region. However, given the prominence of the LLJ feature over the
central CONUS, it is not wise to write off chances of achieving our
first 90 degree day of 2025 somewhere in the CWA.

Looking at the long range, guidance continues to suggest a potential
disturbance moving through the area late week and next weekend. The
first system is Thursday into Friday where the core of the wave is
concentrated along the US/CAN border. Some guidance points toward
some possible showers across far NE MO; however, most guidance keeps
showers and storms to the east and north of the CWA. For next
weekend, guidance is has much higher chances of precipitation;
however, there is much divergence and uncertainty between members.
Some have showers and storms missing the area completely; others
train multiple storm systems over the same areas for 72 hours,
particularly west central MO along 52 HWY. Further forecast updated
will refine these uncertainties and bring into focus any potential
hazardous weather for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR conditions with light easterly flow through the period.
Scattered cumulus (~4K feet agl) are possible after 15Z Monday
across central Missouri expanding westward through the afternoon
hours. Winds will take on a more southerly direction Monday
night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...BT