771
FXUS63 KEAX 262043
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
343 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible to likely
  late tonight into Sunday morning.

- Severe thunderstorms possible to likely Monday afternoon into
  early Tuesday morning. All severe hazards will be possible.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms possible through Thursday
  evening, especially for locations south of Interstate 70.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

An MCS is ongoing south of our CWA this afternoon in association
with a shortwave impulse embedded within the west southwesterly
mid level flow that has been in place across the Southern Plains
for the past few days. While we have remained precipitation
free, low level cloud cover remains, and has helped keep a lid
on temperatures this afternoon (3 PM temps ranging from the mid
50s to lower 60s). Some light rain will likely overspread the
region from southwest to northeast by late tonight into the
early Sunday morning hours thanks to some isentropic ascent,
with accumulated rainfall on the order of a third of an inch or
less. A few isolated showers (and possibly even a rumble of
thunder or two) may be possible tomorrow afternoon, with
temperatures rebounding into the mid to upper 60s (lower 70s
possible south and southwest of Kansas City).

By Monday afternoon a closed mid level low across the Great
Basin region becomes an open wave as it heads into the High
Plains, with a strong mid/upper level jet streak rapidly moving
northeastward from the Southwest into the Upper Midwest.
Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen as it moves across the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with the surface low
progged to be centered over northern Minnesota by 7 pm Monday. A
Pacific cold front/dryline will extend south southwestward from
the surface low through SE Nebraska and into eastern Kansas.
This will yield strong southerly low level flow across our CWA
within the warm sector (surface sustained winds up to 20 to 25
mph), with theta e advection sending temperatures into the low
to mid 80s and dewpoints into the mid 60s by mid to late Monday
afternoon. This will result in a moderately unstable airmass
Monday afternoon/early evening, with around 2000 J/kg of ML
CAPE (with relatively steep mid level lapse rates), which will
be paired with 50 knots of deep layer shear thanks to the strong
mid level WSW jet across the open warm sector in our CWA. The
limiting reagent will be a little bit of convective inhibition
with relatively weak forcing for ascent, with only weak mid
level height falls along and ahead of the dryline (compared to
much better forcing up north toward the surface low). If any
storm manages to initiate across the warm sector Monday
afternoon/evening, the environment would support supercells
capable of all severe hazards. The cold front is progged to move
through the region from NW to SE by overnight Monday into
Tuesday morning. Stronger forcing along the front along with
forcing from the low level jet will yield better chances for
storms along the front during this time, with a line of storms
with embedded supercells possible.

The front may stall out across the northern edge of the Ozarks
on Tuesday afternoon, with west southwesterly mid level flow
continuing over the region thanks to troughing across the Desert
Southwest. This will likely yield continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms across southern portions of the CWA (toward
the Ozarks), and with PWATs ranging from 1.2 to 1.4", locally
moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible for Tuesday into
Wednesday night. Anywhere from 2" to 4" of total rainfall
appears possible for areas along and south of a Pleasanton KS
(Linn County KS) to Fayette MO (Howard County MO) line. If this
QPF comes to fruition, flooding along the Blackwater River (and
potentially Lamine and Big Creek) seems very much possible. Dry
weather appears to finally return by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

MVFR CIGs should linger at the terminals before returning to VFR
(although CIGs will likely remain somewhere in the 3500-4000 ft
range) by around 21z this afternoon. MVFR CIGs should return by
around 7z tonight along with a chance for some showers
(primarily at the KC metro terminals). Any showers should clear
by around 11z Sunday, with either low end MVFR or IFR CIGs
likely continuing into early Sunday afternoon. 10 knot
southeasterly winds should generally continue through the
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW