516
FXUS63 KEAX 071106
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
506 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Some patchy fog this morning, but not expected to be widespread

* Cool, but near-normal, temperatures continue to end week and into
  the weekend
  - Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s
  - Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s

* Precipitation chances a bit slower, now primarily Friday overnight
  through Saturday
  - Modest widespread amounts around 0.25" to 0.75"

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Region remains abundantly quiet as it remains under the influence of
a sizable surface high over the Central Plains. Being centered
largely around the Nebraska-South Dakota border region, surface flow
is largely northerly to northeasterly and light. Some patchy fog has
begun to show up in observations and satellite products, but remains
unexpected to become widespread and dense with more organized, and
dry, surface flow versus last night. Greatest opportunity for fog is
likely over northern Missouri where winds will be lightest, but may
also be mitigated by high level cloud cover streaming through the
upper level SW flow. Do not anticipate the need for any products,
but will continue to monitor northern areas. Otherwise, expect
another chilly morning commute with lows dropping into the mid to
upper 30s for many outside the KC Metro. Urban heat island may keep
metro lows just above 40.

Quiet weather will continue today and much of Friday with no notable
shortwaves coming off the upper level western trough/cutoff low. As
the area continues to reside on the cool side of the upper level SW
flow pattern and within northerly to northeasterly flow around the
surface high, air mass will remain dry and cool but near normal in
the mid 50s to around 60 for highs. Aforementioned cutoff low will
continue to slowly meander around/through Arizona and New Mexico
today, before beginning to move out into the Plains Friday and will
be impetus for the return of PoPs late Friday and Saturday. Flagship
synoptic models remain in fair agreement on deepening and track
Friday into the weekend, taking it northeasterly across TX/OK
Panhandles, W/C Kansas and eventually E Nebraska/NW Iowa by Saturday
night. For the area, precipitation will thusly be driven by the WAA
wing. Guidance has continued to trend slower with initial
precipitation onset, which is not terribly surprising given the dry
air in place and ongoing, albeit weak, dry N/NE near-surface flow.
This has pushed potential precip onset to around midnight Friday
night for E Kansas/W Missouri. Guidance QPF too has gradually scaled
back. With the progressive nature of the WAA wing and little
instability, not much opportunity for significant rainfall. NBM
spreads and probabilities suggest a quarter to three quarters of an
inch for most. Southwesterly winds and pronounced dry slot should
clear skies out fairly quickly behind precip Saturday, but will
remain cool through Sunday given wrapped up nature of the system.

As the upper low departs late weekend, some degree of warming will
take place early in the week as the upper pattern takes on a more
zonal to weak riding look. Expect highs in the 60s, potentially
touching low 70s in southern areas of the CWA Monday/Tuesday. That
modest warming will be short lived though as pronounced and
progressive trough is fairly well corroborated within synoptic
guidance by mid-week. That too would be the next opportunity for any
precipitation after Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 503 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

One-liners across the TAF sites with this issuance. Prevailing
NE winds throughout the period, generally under 10kts, with
clear skies or thin high clouds overhead.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ003>008-
     014>017.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis