179
FXUS63 KEAX 142318
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain/drizzle/sprinkle chances taper off this evening. Best chances
  remain over NW/N areas.

* Well above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  expected Wednesday through Friday
  - At this point in the season, up to around 15-20 deg above normal

* Next chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday into Friday night
  - A few strong storms cannot be ruled out at this time
    however, organized severe weather is not expected for the
    immediate area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

A mostly overcast day across the area which included periods of very
light rain to sprinkles. Areas that saw the "most" rain tended to be
to the N and W of I-35, but that is not saying much. Otherwise, as
of early to mid-afternoon, local and regional radar depictions
continue to show very weak rain/shower activity drifting NE,
associated with weak and transient isentropic lift within the larger
SW mid-upper level flow pattern. Remainder of the afternoon will see
little bits in sunshine through the larger broken cloud field, but
will struggle overall to fully clear until tomorrow with the
building mid-upper ridge.

Sensible weather the next couple of days will be dominated by
building mid-upper level ridge across central CONUS as a large
cutoff low digs into the SW CONUS and weaker troughing lingers near
the east coast. As the ridge builds, clearing skies and re-
established southerly winds will allow for deeper mixing and ability
to tap into lower teens 850mb temps. This will yield yet another
round of much above seasonal normal temperatures Wednesday,
Thursday, and into Friday. Expect high temperatures primarily back
into the low to mid 80s across the area, bolstered by NBM25/75
spreads of only 2-3 degrees. And for reference, seasonal norms range
from the mid to upper 60s in many cases, so upwards of 15+ degrees
above normal.

Additionally through the middle portions of the week, the western
CONUS mid-upper cutoff low will move through the Intermountain West
and eventually become more of an open wave and deflect NE as a
concurrent mid-upper low drops southward out of Quebec and into New
England. This will yield Lee Cyclogenesis across the Wyoming and
Northern Colorado Front Ranges and carry surface low into the
Northern Plains Thursday. Aside from the warmer temperatures, not
much other local sensible weather change other than some increasing,
even gusty, winds at times Thursday.

By Friday, the cold front associated with the surface low will begin
to approach the area, reinforced by surface high pressure building
into the Central/Northern Plains. This will be our next opportunity
for any appreciable precipitation, including thunderstorms. Flagship
synoptic guidance remains in good agreement on frontal progression
and timing, but appear to be slowing down the overall progression
just a bit. Regardless, shower and thunderstorm chances return
Friday but may not be until afternoon/evening and overnight. Concern
for any strong/severe remains on the low end with marginal lapse
rates and modest moisture return yielding predominantly <500 J/kg
MUCAPE among synoptic guidance. Though with >40kts 0-6km shear
depicted, any pockets of stronger instability may be able to yield a
strong to marginally severe storm. Shear profiles are largely
unidirectional and parallel to the front, which too should help
limit window for any strong to severe overall. As this activity
drifts S/SE into Saturday, SPC does continue to carry the 15% risk
across much of SGF/LSX service areas, where models continue to
showcase strong instability, >1500 J/kg, in an area of bit better
lapse rates and moisture return.

As this activity exits during the weekend, surface high pressure
influence tends to take over and yield drier and cooler conditions.
Though synoptic guidance does depict a quick scooting shortwave
rounding the larger trough, which may yield a few showers, dependent
on path, later Saturday before we fully dry out. Expect 60s temps
Sunday and rebounding back into the 70s early next week. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail across the sites with this
issuance. KSTJ does run a low risk for MVFR to clip the area,
but upstream observations suggest they should just miss out.
Additionally, all sites run a low risk of -RA/DZ yet today, but
very scattered nature, short duration, and little to no impact
to overall VFR conditions, have left mentions out of this
issuance. Otherwise, winds from the SE much of the time,
becoming more southerly tomorrow/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated for the duration of the TAF
period with weak southerly/southeasterly winds. Winds stay mostly
around 5-9 kts through the next 24 hrs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Collier