273
FXUS63 KEAX 150938
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
338 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of Dense Fog expected along the US-65 corridor. A Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect from 3 AM to 9 AM.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today and tomorrow.

- Gusty winds around 25-30 MPH expected Saturday afternoon. Slight
chances for showers in far NW MO Saturday afternoon/evening.

- Widespread rain expected starting early Monday morning lasting
  much of the day. Some heavy rainfall is possible.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Surface high pressure continues to dominate the area early this
morning. Stratus from earlier in the day vacated the area bringing
clear skies and clam winds across central MO. This enhances
radiational cooling plunging temperatures closer to dew points and
encouraging the development of fog. Several areas of 1/4 mile
visibility are possible along the US-65 corridor; thus a Dense Fog
Advisory remains in effect from 3AM to 9AM this morning. Areas in NE
MO settle around 32F tonight which could facilitate some freezing
fog, but that is likely to be very sporadic and limited to elevated
and metal surfaces. Other areas of patchy fog are possible to the
west; however, southerly winds are expected to be just enough to 1)
mitigate stagnation and 2) advect just enough warm air to keep dew
point depressions above dense fog formation thresholds. That said,
it would not be surprising to see some fog along valleys and near
bodies of water.

The next 2 days remain relatively quiet. Temperatures remain above
average reaching the mid 60s Saturday and Sunday. The pressure
gradient tightens between an eastern CONUS high and western
troughing leading to gusty winds around 25-30 MPH Saturday.
Fortunately, recent rains mitigate fire weather concerns; however,
it would be best not to burn if you were considering it. Broad weak
ascent combined with anomalously high moisture transport brings the
potential for some isolated sprinkles/showers mainly across far NW
MO Saturday late afternoon and evening. More robust storm chances
come late Sunday moreso into Monday. A rather unique upper level
pattern starts taking shape Sunday into Monday where a rex block
attempts to establish across the North Atlantic. This slows westerly
flow across the entire CONUS meaning that systems will either
progress more slowly or they will take more SW to NE routings. A
compliment of synoptic troughs migrate across the CONUS early
Sunday. The first across the upper Midwest, the second digging deep
into the desert SW. These systems strengthen the already large
advection of moisture. As Sunday turns to Monday, the southern low
traverses the Rockies and further enhances the northward flow of
moisture into the region. PWAT value rise above 1.5 inches which is
quite high for this time of year. Strong cyclogenesis and
frontogenesis create expansive areas of rainfall arriving early
Monday morning. Rain, some heavy downpours, and isolated
thunderstorms linger through the day Monday exiting early Tuesday
morning. Storm total QPF sits around 1.5 to 2 inches across the
region. Storm tracks have shifted slight west keeping the entirety
of the region within the warm sector mitigating concerns of mixed
precipitation.

As mentioned previously, uncertainty beyond Tuesday remains high.
Much of this uncertainty is due to models resolving the synoptic
blocking high across the North Atlantic. This will play a critical
role in how the remainder of the forecast will pan out. Ensemble
guidance remains uncertain and low confidence broad brushing
probabilities across expansive areas. Where there is some confidence
is that upper level NW flow is expected behind Monday`s system
lowering temperatures back toward what we would expected for this
time of year. Deterministic models have been suggesting a jet streak
and shortwave trough passing through late Wednesday into Thursday
slight chances for precipitation. Overnight lows in the upper 20s
bring an opportunity for wintry precipitation, but probabilities
remain rather limited with deterministic models remaining uncertain
of base precipitation chances. No wintry accumulations would be
expected, just enough to count as the first of the season. Again,
uncertainties remain fairly high as several synoptic factors need to
fall into place to optimize this setup.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Areas of dense fog continue to develop east of highway 65. This
fog is expected to burn off through the morning hours on Friday.
Light southeast winds are expected to prevail with VFR
conditions outside of the fog overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ007-008-
     016-017-024-025-032-033-039-040-046.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...BT