310
FXUS63 KEAX 281733
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1133 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions from 10
  am through 8 pm today.

- Much cooler tomorrow, with highs in the 40s.

- Slightly above normal temperatures return Sunday, with well
  above normal temperatures for Monday and Tuesday.

- A few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will be
  possible Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly
  likely on Tuesday. Locally moderate rainfall and a few strong
  thunderstorms may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Current water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights and
winds shows a shortwave trough across the Northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest, with a 70+ knot mid level jet extending from
southern Saskatchewan into western Wisconsin. This will amplify
as it pivots into the Great Lakes region, which will send an
accompanying deep closed surface low (roughly 989 mb) from
southern Manitoba into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan with an
associated cold front approaching the region from the north by
around noon today. With the tightening pressure gradient, winds
will increase by later this morning, with winds initially out of
the west southwest, then becoming westerly, and finally
northwesterly behind the initial cold front. Sustained winds
will likely range from 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 to even
35 mph. With warm air advection (at least initially, prior to
the arrival of the cold front) and compressional warming out
ahead of the approaching front, temperatures are likely to warm
as high as the upper 60s to perhaps even the lower 70s (ended up
going with 75th percentile NBM MaxT today). In addition to the
enhanced winds and warm temperatures, relative humidity is
likely to drop into the 20 to 30 percent range. Meanwhile, local
RAWS sites have shown 10 hour fuel moisture values in the 8 to
10 percent range for each of the previous two afternoons. All of
these features will combine to yield critical fire weather
conditions today, and as such a Red Flag Warning will be in
effect region wide from 10 am through 8 pm. Outdoor burning of
any kind is strongly discouraged, as fires will have the
potential to rapidly spread given the conditions.

A secondary cold front with the better influx of Arctic air
arrives by later tonight, and will help yield low temperatures
for Saturday morning near or below freezing region wide. By
Saturday afternoon, we will be wedged between high amplitude
mid/upper troughing to our east and high amplitude mid/upper
level ridging to our west, yielding northwesterly flow aloft.
Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will build into
northern Iowa, with high temperatures around 25 degrees colder
than those of today. Minimum afternoon RH will once again be
near critical thresholds, but with colder temperatures and only
a mild northerly breeze, fire weather concerns should be much
less. A region wide freeze is expected for Saturday night into
Sunday morning, with lows ranging from the lower 20s over NE
Missouri to mid to upper 20s elsewhere.

Temperatures begin to rebound on Sunday as a closed H5 low and
accompanying shortwave trough cross the southern Rockies and
eject into the Southern Plains, turning winds southerly and
providing both WAA and some decent moisture return. Between the
increased moisture and forcing for ascent, isolated to scattered
showers will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning.
Models suggest there could be just a little bit of instability,
primarily for areas along and south of the Interstate 70
corridor, so a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out.

A better looking system appears increasingly possible as we head
into Tuesday, with guidance coming into better agreement on a
closed H5 low moving into the Southern High Plains with a
highly amplified trough extending southward into the Trans Pecos
by noon Tuesday, potentially taking on a slight negative tilt
as it ejects across Oklahoma into Texas by Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a surface low is progged to move
from southwest to northeast across Kansas and into Missouri.
With 50+ degree dewpoints and a tongue of 1"+ PWATs advecting
northward into the region and synoptic scale forcing for ascent,
our grids have 80 percent plus PoPs for Tuesday morning through
Tuesday night with total QPF on the order of 1" to 2".
Additionally, with anywhere from 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE and
strong deep layer shear thanks to a strong southwesterly mid
level jet overspreading the region, some strong to severe storms
could be possible, especially toward the Ozarks and central
Missouri. Some wintry precipitation may be possible early
Wednesday morning on the backside of the system as thermal
profiles cool, but at this time little to no accumulations are
anticipated. Cooler temperatures arrive behind the system for
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Breezy conditions are expected this afternoon, as winds veer
from westerly to northwesterly through 00z. Should see a brief
(1-3 hour) period of stronger gusts as winds shift to north-
northwest, with speeds approaching 20 kt and gusts approaching
30 kt. Winds will diminish after sunset to around 10 kt, slowly
increasing once again tomorrow morning as directions become more
northerly. VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...CMS