594
FXUS63 KEAX 201706
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off shower activity and well below temperatures can be
  expected the next several days. Severe weather is not expected

- Warmer conditions return the later half of next week

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Tranquil weather comes to an end tonight as a mid-level short
wave slides south. The wave eventually becomes a cut-off low and
stalls out over the weekend. Isolated to scattered shower
activity has already pushed into northwest Missouri and will
continue to slide into the rest of the forecast area through the
day. Afternoon high temperatures remain cool in this pattern,
only reaching around 80 this afternoon in the KC metro and in
the 70s farther north. Best chances arrive this afternoon and
evening, though chances still will be mainly less than 50%.
Scattered activity will continue to be possible through the
overnight.

The cut-off low remains stagnant heading into Sunday bringing
continued on and off minor rain chances through the day. Chances
remain mainly below 40% through the day. Temperatures may
struggle to make it out of the 70s north of I-70 and near 80
degrees to the south. For reference normal mid July highs are
in the upper 80s, so these highs are around 10 degrees below
normal. Severe weather is not expected with minimal cape and
shear, though there may be enough instability for some rumbles
of thunder.

Finally by Sunday night into Monday, the cut-off becomes an
open wave and merges into the troughing to our northeast. This
broad troughing, centered over the Great Lakes will make very
slow progress east, keeping the low end rain chances around for
Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures remain in the low 80s through
this period. As far as rainfall amounts go, they are expected to
be fairly light across the area. NBM shows a less than 20%
chance of seeing 1 inch and a 20-40% chance of 3/4 of an inch
over the next 4 days. Far northwest MO has the best chance of
seeing amounts higher than a half inch. With the long duration
of this light rain, don`t expect any flooding concerns at this
time.

The second half of the week will be characterized warming
temperatures as troughing shifts to the east and ridging builds to
our west. Temperatures returning to the upper 80s to low 90s can be
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions expected. Period of light rain impacting terminals
through 19Z, trending to widely scattered showers through sunset
before mostly dry weather is expected. Cigs should remain around
10kft through the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Blair