000
FXUS63 KEAX 041114
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another seasonally cool day today, then warming through remainder
  of week.
  - Humidity too returns, pushing HI values into upper 90s/low 100s
    by Thursday/Friday

* Mostly dry conditions expected through the week, chances displaced
  to the N/NW
  - A few showers/storms may clip NW/N areas Tue/Wed
    nights/overnights

* Signals continue for more active pattern next weekend into
  following week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Conditions remain largely quiet across the region with little
substantial change to the large scale pattern/picture, even with a
remnant MCV continuing to linger over much of the CWA. Said MCV
continues to struggle to produce ground-reaching precipitation, let
alone measurable, thanks to the general lack of moisture in the low
to mid-levels and any notable instability within profiles. As of
early this morning (8-9z), a couple of weaker returns appear
along/near the Kansas/Missouri border south of the KC Metro, where
lift may be just enough to tap into very weak (<100 J/kg) of
elevated instability. These depicted returns will struggle to reach
the ground with >10kft of dry air below. Don`t expect much more than
cloud cover and a sprinkle possible. Another area to briefly
watch will be thunderstorm activity over SE Nebraska/NE Kansas
as it continues to drift SE/ESE. Much like previous days, this
activity will wholly struggle to work into the CWA as the
"shields remain up" so to speak with very little to no
instability, dry air mass, and broad subsidence across the area.
Suspect some lingering cloud cover to be the most likely result
for W/NW areas through the morning, so have kept forecast dry.

Peering through the work week, main story/weather driver remains the
expected building/expansion of a SW CONUS mid-upper level ridge. In
conjunction, surface high pressure will gradually shift eastward,
allowing southerly surface winds and moisture to return. Takeaway
here being the warming trend that will kick off Tuesday and on
through the remainder of the week. Peak 850mb thermal ridge looks to
remain displaced westward across broad set of deterministic/ensemble
guidance, keeping temperatures from truly entering oppressive
territory. Instead, temperatures work back towards seasonal/late
summer conditions. Expect highs to build into the upper 80s/lower
90s in most cases by Thur/Fri, along with dewpoints returning to the
upper 60s/lower 70s. This will push heat index values into the upper
90s/lower 100s by latter portions of the week. Any heat headline
chances are low given the current forecast consensus, but should
western CONUS/PNW trough be stronger/dig deeper, it may amplify mid-
upper ridge more and as a result bring even warmer/hotter
temperatures into the mix. This possibility is reflected in the NBM
spreads with 75-90th percentile values depicting MaxTs in the 96-99
deg F range for the KC Metro late week. Something to casually watch
through the week.

Will also want to keep an eye on a couple glancing precipitation
opportunities this week as the mid-upper ridge builds in.
Deterministic and ensemble consensus remains largely dry across the
area, but regardless, the N/NW portions of the area will have the
best opportunities to see any activity. Shortwaves Tue and Wed
nights remain well advertised within deterministic
Euro/GFS/Canadian/NAM, rounding the northern portions of the
building mid-upper ridge, crossing Nebraska/South Dakota. Both
opportunities have aspects working for/against with regards to
allowing any precipitation to work into the area. Pattern wise, Tue
night may be favored as the mid-upper level ridge builds in.
Thermodynamically Wed night may be favored with stronger instability
depictions given more opportunity for moisture return. Suffice it to
say that at this point in time any activity that may be able to work
into the N/NW portions of the area Tue or Wed night/overnight would
be quite elevated with strong warming/capping up through the 850-
700mb layer and dependent on strength of convection moving out of
central/eastern Nebraska or NE Kansas. Certainly we`ve seen
initially dry forecasts go awry this season under loosely
similar situations. Late week remains dry with ridge in place.

Quickly into the weekend and following week, SW CONUS mid-upper
ridge appears poised to de-amplify as a northern stream/PNW
shortwave trough pushes eastward. This feature too appears poised to
push a surface frontal boundary into the area sometime during the
latter portions of the weekend and into the following week.
Certainly at this point details are murky at best, but depending on
surface front evolution, may provide multiple opportunities for
shower/storm activity should it lay up/stall nearby, let alone
additional surface boundary pushes from additional shortwave
progressions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

With near-surface smoke having moved out of the area, VFR
conditions will continue to prevail throughout this TAF period.
Some mid-upper level cloud cover to stream across, and winds to
be on the light side and generally out of the east. This
culminates in one line TAFs across all of the sites,
KMCI/KMKC/KIXD/KSTJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis